Minnesota Twins Offseason Weekly Reaction: Breakout and Bounce Back Projections

Writers Note: A weekly review of the Minnesota Twins offseason transactions, including reaction and opinions from fans and myself. Look for future polls on my Twitter account to share your opinions. Last week, Kennys Vargas and the Rotation.

As arbitration discussions get under way, the Minnesota Twins offseason is nearing the final month. Hard to believe that in 32 days pitchers and catchers will report. It is hard not to think about what could be in the upcoming 2016 season.

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ESPN has come out with its picks for breakout hitters and pitchers for each team. FanGraphs has released the 2016 ZiPS and Steamer projections. Wondering what Twins fans were thinking, I started three Twitter polls to ask fans for their picks for breakout hitter, breakout pitcher and bounce back player in 2016. On each poll includes three players along with an “other” option. If the voter chose the “other” option they were to reply with the name of the player they chose. Each slide has one of the three polls and includes my pick for each as well.

Lets dive in.

Next: Breakout Hitter

Breakout Hitter

Last season Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton received a call-up during the middle of the season. Sano took off and finished in the top three for the American League Rookie of the Year award. Sano hit well enough to appear in 80 games for the Twins. Slashing .269/.385/.530 and hitting 18 home runs, he became an extra source of power in the Twins lineup. He finished 2015 with a WAR of 2.1, good for fifth highest on the team. The trouble area for Sano was his fielding. During a particular game last season, Sano botched a play at third. Later in the same inning he made a diving backhand stop and made an on target throw to first. Somehow the miscue was not an error. The point being that his fielding needs more consistency in 2016, especially now that he’ll be asked to play in the outfield.

Buxton, unlike Sano, struggled mightily. He struck out a lot. 31.9 percent of his at-bats were strikeouts. Many pointed out that Mike Trout struggled at the plate when he first got a taste of the majors. For Buxton, the defensive tools are already present. He has incredibly speed and a strong-arm for a center fielder. His Range Factor per 9 innings was 3.22 last season, when the league average RF9 for center fielders was 2.68. Furthermore, Buxton’s runs from fielding was 4 while his runs batting was -7. These numbers reflect what is already stated, struggles at the plate but providing above average defense.

John Ryan Murphy received votes in the poll but not anywhere close to Buxton or Sano. This could be due to the fact that not many fans are familiar with him yet. The main focus areas to stay aware of involve his slash line, caught stealing percentage and how he grows in his fourth big league season. Last season, Murphy slashed .277/.327/.406 in 172 plate appearances. He threw out 28 percent of base runners in 29 chances. With an increase in playing time, Murphy has continued to improve in both areas. What to watch for is how well he connects on with the pitching staff like Kurt Suzuki has and if he continues to develop into a starting catcher.

My Pick: Byron Buxton

ESPN picked Sano as the breakout hitter numerous times. Steamer projections have Sano hitting 31 home runs with 90 RBI. ZiPS has him hitting 26 home runs with 76 RBI. It is too easy to pick Sano here because there is a lot of upside. However, I remain skeptical of Sano because of his temporary transition to the outfield. Therefore, I will pick Buxton as the Twins breakout hitter in 2016.

It is encouraging to see that Buxton started to have some success in the last month of the season. Even with a limited number of games batting lead-off Buxton displayed his potential. He seemed to feel relaxed and comfortable at the plate in the waning weeks of 2015. ZiPS projects Buxton will be one of top defensive Twins players (13 defensive runs above average). I see Buxton taking many strides forward and cutting down his strikeout rate. It may not happen right away but as the season progresses he will soon be batting lead-off every game.

Next: Breakout Pitcher

Breakout Pitcher

Another close poll result. Except this one is more wide-spread than anticipated. There were a couple that voted for “other” and mentioned Jose Berrios. One of those was to vote for Berrios was fellow Puckett’s Pond writer Jamie Cameron, who also voted for J.T. Chargois and Nick Burdi. Baseball fan Brad Jerome added a single vote for Tommy Milone. Had Berrios been one of the three to vote for, he very likely would sway the results. The focus, however, remains on the three names in the poll.

Kyle Gibson pitched his best season by far in 2015. Across the board, he had career bests in several statistical categories. Gibson registered his lowest ERA along with career bests in strikeouts, innings pitched, WHIP, H9 and SO9. During the month of May his ERA was as low as 2.61. In 2014, Gibson made a quality start in 48 percent of his starts. Last season, the number increased to 53 percent. Watching Gibson pitch several times throughout the year, it was apparent he was more confident. That confidence helped him pitch deeper into games.

After returning from an 80 game suspension, Ervin Santana had mixed results. Had Santana pitched a full season he would have put of career average numbers. However, do not overlook what he did toward the end of the season. From Aug. 30 on, Santana pitched at his best. His last seven starts he had a 5-1 record and a 1.62 ERA. Of those seven starts, Santana pitched seven innings six times and eight innings once. Simply put, he was red hot and was by far the Twins best pitcher.

A starter turned reliever, Trevor May had a productive 2015. Once Santana returned from his suspension, May began pitching out of the bullpen. The move worked so well that he continued to pitch in relief the rest of 2015. His SO/BB rate was higher and his opponent batting average was lower. Coming into 2016, May says he will be competing for a role in the rotation. It will be up to Paul Molitor to decide if he wants May to return to the bullpen. A late inning role seems probable at this point.

My Pick: Kyle Gibson

ZiPS projects Gibson as the second best pitcher for the Twins in 2016. ESPN picked Tyler Duffey as the breakout pitcher in 2016 for the Twins. It is surprising to see the support for Santana after how many fans trash talked him last season. Here I disagree with ESPN and the poll results.

Gibson has quite frankly been overlooked by many over the last two years. Last season, he showed that he is an effective ground-ball pitcher. Even though ZiPS projects Gibson as the second best starter, a closer look reveals that the projections are almost identical to last season. I predict Gibson will continue to gain confidence. Barring an injury, I see Gibson as the number one starter on the Twins staff. Last season, he was the Twins best player in terms of WAR. Look for Gibson to breakout in 2016.

Next: Bounce Back Player