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Minnesota Twins Offseason Weekly Reaction: Breakout and Bounce Back Projections

ByMartin Schlegel|
Jul 6, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of the Minnesota Twins logo in a game between the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles at Target Field. The Minnesota Twins beat the Baltimore Orioles 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 6, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of the Minnesota Twins logo in a game between the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles at Target Field. The Minnesota Twins beat the Baltimore Orioles 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
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Bounce Back Player

Last week, Oswaldo Arcia and Kennys Vargas were the topic of the weekly reaction. It was an open discussion regarding who, between Arcia and Vargas, would be most least likely to make the Twins opening day roster. For more on Arcia and Vargas, follow this link to catch up.

Now that you have hopefully read about those two players. The third player, and the winner by a large margin, is closer Glen Perkins. Last year, started as the best season ever for him (1.10 ERA, 12-12 Saves in the first 17 games). Then it became the best season for a Twins closer. He became the first pitcher in Twins history to convert 18 straight save opportunities to start a season. Perkins also became the first pitcher in Twins history to save 28 straight, breaking Joe Nathan‘s record of 27 straight. Perkins was arguably the best closer through his first 40 games (29 Sv, 1.37 ERA, .192 opponent batting average).

Then the wheels fell off and rolled of the bluffs of southeastern Minnesota. Perkins was a complete 180 degree difference in his last 20 games of the season (7.64 ERA, .370 opponent batting average). He lost the closer role to Kevin Jepsen. Perkins battled with back spasms the last few months of the season, which was the main cause for his poor performances.

There was one “other” vote for Joe Mauer and one for Phil Hughes. Projections show Hughes will pitch better in 2016 while Mauer will remain close the same as last season.

My Pick: Glen Perkins

Aug 28, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Relief pitcher Glen Perkins (15) is my Minnesota Twins offseason pick to bounce back in 2016. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 28, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Relief pitcher Glen Perkins (15) is my Minnesota Twins offseason pick to bounce back in 2016. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Here is a case where the easy pick to make is most likely the correct pick. Perkins had a stellar first half and dreadful second half. What would his season look like had his first half continued? If he pitched like he did in the first half the whole season, there is a strong possibility that he would be the new Twins single season saves leader.

Despite not so kind projections from Steamer and ZiPS, Perkins is in a position to bounce back where Arcia and Vargas are not. Arcia and Vargas are going to battle for a roster spot while Perkins is back as the Twins closer. Last year is proof that, when healthy, Perkins is one of the best closers in baseball. I firmly believe he will return to that status in 2016.

Information gathered from: FanGraphs ZiPS, FanGraphs Steamer, ESPN batter and pitcher projections.

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