Minnesota Twins: Who Starts in the Wild Card One Game Playoff?
If the Twins make the playoffs, who is handed the ball to start in the one game wild card playoff?
Calling all aces. The Minnesota Twins need you. If there is a Clayton Kershaw that the Twins can afford, they should be directed to call Terry Ryan immediately. Down to the final couple weeks of their playoff push the Twins will realize they are missing an ace in the rotation. Their best starting pitcher is, at best, league average.
When imagining who might start in a wild card game for the Twins, no one stands out. This presents Paul Molitor with a tough decision in possibly naming the guy good enough to start the one game playoff. Remember, Ervin Santana is not eligible to pitch in the playoffs. Which leaves a likely group of five pitchers who could be chosen. All have a case to start but also have, at times, seemed to regress to last year.
Next: Kyle Gibson
Is Kyle Gibson finally the starter the Twins hoped he could be?
Sep 13, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Kyle Gibson (44) delivers a pitch during the game against the Chicago White Sox at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Gibson could be the most consistent pitcher in the rotation. From May 1 through July 26, Gibson made 16 starts going 7-6 with an ERA of 3.10. He gave up four or fewer runs in 13 of those 16 starts. Hard to believe it is only his third year in the majors but Gibson continues to progress. This season he already has career bests in ERA, innings pitched, strikeouts and SO/BB. He is having the best season of his career and at 27 could be entering his prime.
However, in the past month, he has not pitched very well. Since August 1, Gibson has a 4.73 ERA. He has given up three or more runs in half of his starts. He has also been walking more batters. Gibson has walked three or more batters in a game 10 times this season, four of those games have come since August 1. Gibson will have to lower the walks per game in order to lower his ERA.
When it comes down to the wild card playoff game, it is a case of what have you done for me lately. Gibson has not been nearly as effective lately as he was earlier in the season. If he pitches like he did mid-season then he could start in the wild card game. It seems unlikely that he will. There are more experienced options available.
Next: Mike Pelfrey
Will Mike Pelfrey be sent to the bullpen or make the biggest start of the year?
Sep 4, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey (37) delivers a pitch during the fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Mike Pelfrey at the beginning of the season was red-hot. Before the season began there were rumors that Pelfrey could be used out of the bullpen in a long relief role. From his first start in April to June 23, he was by far the Twins best starter. His ERA in that span was 3.09. Pelfrey even had his ERA as low as 2.25. He seemed to have proven that he belongs in the rotation putting the bullpen rumors aside.
Not so fast. Pelfrey has really imploded since then. His ERA in the second half of the season is over 5.00 and opposing batters are hitting .326. Pelfrey has six wins on the season with only one win, ONE, since June 29. The Twins will likely have to make a decision come playoff time. If they make it, do they put Pelfrey in the bullpen? Maybe that is what he needs to hear to start pitching like he did in the first half of the season.
A tale of two seasons, Pelfrey does not look like the same pitcher in the second half. However, Pelfrey does lead all MLB pitchers in double plays induced with 27. The ability to escape the opponents rally is magnified in the playoffs. This works in Pelfrey’s favor. But like Gibson, Pelfrey probably will not get the wild card game start. It would be very surprising to see him starting the wild card game.
Next: Phil Hughes
Can Phil Hughes come off the DL and pitch effectively?
Jul 11, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Phil Hughes (45) pitches to the Detroit Tigers in the third inning at Target Field. The Twins won 9-5. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
Phil Hughes last year was the Twins ace. He set a MLB record with a 11.63 SO/BB. He led the league in BB9 and won 16 games. Hughes even finished seventh in the AL Cy Young Award voting. It was a career year. Coming into this season Hughes was expected to perform close to how he did in 2014. Unfortunately, Hughes has not been as successful. He is tied for sixth among all MLB pitchers with 28 home runs given up. In 23 starts, he has given up a home run in 19 of them.
There is a glimmer of hope. Hughes went 10-2 from May to July. That is the only bright spot this season for him. In August, Hughes was put on the DL. Recently he has been activated and will pitch against the Tigers.
Hughes has the most playoff experience of any of the starters. Which would make him a prime candidate to start on the mound in a wild card game. However, he does not have very good numbers in playoff starts. In five starts Hughes has just one win. Even more concerning is how he will pitch in his first game back from the DL. Set to start for the Twins against the Tigers today, it will very interesting to see how he pitches.
Based on experience, Hughes seems like the logical choice. With how the season has gone for him it might mean that he does not start in the one game wild card playoff.
Next: Tommy Milone
Has Tommy Milone been the best starter?
Sep 12, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Tommy Milone (33) throws a pitch against the Chicago White Sox in the first inning at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Tommy Milone has been the most consistent pitcher this season. Never allowing more than five earned runs in any start. He is similar to Hughes, in that both pitch to contact. The difference is Milone does not blow hitters away with his fastball. Mixing in his off-speed pitches, Milone throws plenty of strikes. This season he has thrown strikes 63.1 percent of the time. A fly ball pitcher, not allowing home runs is extremely important. When he keeps the ball in the yard he has a record of 7-1. Since coming off the DL on August 16 Milone has only given up two home runs. A trend that will need to continue for Milone.
Milone has been on the DL twice this season, each time coming back and pitching well. So far this season Milone has not had many failures. Although Milone has only pitched more than six innings six times in 21 starts. Not going deep into the game could put too much pressure on a bullpen that has been unpredictable at times.
In 2012, Milone made his only postseason start for the Oakland A’s. In that game he allowed just one run in six innings. Likely to face the Yankees or the Blue Jays in a wild card game, Milone in his career has allowed twice as many runs to the Blue Jays than the Yankees.
Disregarding the past, Milone is posting a 3.06 ERA in three starts this month. Why not ride the hot hand? The thought of a fly ball pitcher pitching in a one game wild card showdown against the home run hitting Blue Jays or at Yankee Stadium is frightening. Both are not ideal situations for Milone to pitch in.
Next: Tyler Duffey
Is rookie Tyler Duffey ready for the spotlight?
Sep 6, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Tyler Duffey (56) delivers a pitch during the second inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
With his most recent performance, rookie Tyler Duffey now has four wins in seven starts. Called up when Hughes was put on the DL, Duffey has four quality starts. The only blemish is Duffey’s first career start against the Blue Jays. Like a big juicy steak thrown to a pack of lions, Duffey gave up six runs in just two innings pitched to, at the time, the hottest team in baseball. Since then, he has allowed no more than three runs. In only seven starts, Duffey already has the highest SO/9 rate, 8.61, among Twins starters.
A 4-1 record is nice but do not be fooled. Duffey has received plenty of run support. When Duffey has been on the mound, the Twins have scored an averaged of more than seven runs per game. The fewest runs being four, just once. Duffey’s knockout pitch seems to be a sweeping curve. He has gotten hitters to strikeout looking on it several times. But when they go down looking at his curve, it appears to be hanging down the middle of the strike zone. A good hitter will tee off on his curve eventually.
Even though he is a rookie he has not pitched like one. Disregarding Duffey’s debut, his ERA is a lowly 2.67 and opponents are hitting just .239. Duffey has the ability to pitch a good game, he has shown so already. His curveball is his best pitch. Freezing right-handed hitters and disappearing out of the zone against left-handed hitters. If the Twins are matched up in the wild card game against the Yankees, why not let him start? He is the hottest pitcher currently. If the Twins end up facing the Blue Jays in the wild card game, find a better option.