2015 Twins: Best Over/Under Projections
At this point in the offseason, we still sit just under a month away from Spring Training kicking off in Fort Myers. While a lot still remains up in the air not only with the Twins, but teams around Major League Baseball, it’s somewhat interesting to take a look at projections for the upcoming season.
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Right now, sportsbooks have yet to release lines for the over/under win totals for teams across Major League Baseball. While win totals are arguably the most important statistic from a team standpoint, there are quite a few categories that, should the Twins achieve them, will help the club to find themselves in a good spot.
Let’s take a look at some over/under projections for the Twins in 2015:
Apr 10, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of a baseball on the field during pre game batting practice before a game between the Oakland Athletics and Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Wins: 76
Starting with the most important category, team wins. Last season, the Twins won 70 games, their highest total since 2010. Looking at the roster they have fielded on opening day since their last AL Central Division title in 2010, this team has a lot more excitement behind it. While an increase of six wins over 2014 seems small in the scheme of 162 games, it represents a much clearer picture.
Should the Twins reach the over on 76 wins, the club will not only be looking at meaningful September games, but could find themselves in the thick of a Wild Card battle far deeper into the season than the point in time they acquired Kendrys Morales in 2014. If Minnesota is on the under side of 76 wins in 2015, things will likely have gone against them, injuries played a factor, and pitching failed to take steps forward.
I am of the belief that the floor for this Twins team could very logically be right around .500. Last season, the Twins and White Sox were far and away the division’s worst. Not only do I see a different team at the bottom of the division, but from top to bottom the AL Central should be close.
Prediction: Over 76 wins
Aug 11, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Minnesota Twins second baseman
Brian Dozier(2) hits a double during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Brian Dozier Home Runs: 17
Last season, not only did Brian Dozier lead the Twins in home runs with 23 long balls, but he also represented the club in the Home Run Derby. His swing was never one that looked to launch balls onto the Target Field Plaza, but his compact swing provided plenty of power to all fields. While the 23 home runs is very impressive, Dozier showed some signs for concern.
In 2014, 18 of the 23 home runs Dozier hit came before the All-Star break. Following his debut in the Home Run Derby, Dozier hit only five more home runs the rest of the season. Slugging .436 up until the All-Star break, Dozier slugged only .387 in the second half. His average remained the same (actually increasing from .242 to .244), but the power had waned.
Heading into 2015, it can be expected that Dozier will once again be amongst the Twins best home run hitters. That being said, 2014 may have been more of the outlier rather than the norm. Expect double-digit home runs to be easily reached, but getting into the high teens should prove elusive.
Prediction: Under 17 Home Runs
Aug 20, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins first baseman
Joe Mauer(7) hits a single eighth inning against the Cleveland Indians at Target Field. The Indians won 5-0. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Joe Mauer Batting Average: .300
Danny Santana was the only qualifying Twins player in 2014 to hit above .300 (he hit .319 across 101 games). Mauer saw his average, typically his biggest asset and strength, finish at .277 in 2014. In his first season as the Twins every day first basemen, Mauer has plenty of distractions to overcome. Of them, a new perspective at the plate may have been the biggest.
Recently at Twins Fest, Mauer noted harder throwers and bigger strike zones attributing to his increased swing and miss tendencies. While that may be true, he also no longer has the benefit of seeing the zone from behind the plate prior to stepping into the box. Now with that knowledge to his benefit, Mauer will have a chance to prove that 2014 was not a drop off, but in fact an adjustment period.
A professional hitter, Mauer should return more towards his average and provide the Twins with the asset of a reliable hitter once again. The last season Mauer’s average dipped below .300 (hit .287 in 2011), he responded by batting .319 in 2012. I’d expect him to hit somewhere around .305 when all is said and done this season.
Prediction: Over .300 Average
Jul 29, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher
Kyle Gibson(44) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Gibson Win Total: 15
A year ago, Kyle Gibson had a jekyll and hyde type season for the Twins. In his wins, he sported an ERA that rested under 1.00 and in his losses, that number ballooned to over 12.00. While wins are a marginal statistic when it comes to deciding what kind of pitcher you have, Gibson should take steps forward this season, and his win column will translate.
After pitching in 31 games as a starter a season ago, Gibson was 13-12 for the Twins with a 4.47 ERA. Although the numbers are significantly higher than the Twins would have hoped, a 26-year-old getting his first shot at regular time could have done much worse. Terry Ryan has indicated that Gibson remains someone he believes will take significant steps forward in 2015, and he does so with good defense.
Having Torii Hunter and Oswaldo Arcia behind him in the corner outfield spots won’t do him any favors, but look for Gibson to be more consistent, and more good than bad in 2015. An ERA right around four is very realistic, and am improved offense should provide more run support. I think both Phil Hughes and Gibson have a shot at being 17+ game winners this season for the Twins.
Prediction: Over 15 wins for Kyle Gibson
Jun 20, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher
Ricky Nolasco(47) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Ricky Nolasco ERA: 4.40
The Twins went out and made a splash last season in signing two starting pitchers in free agency. At the time, Ricky Nolasco had signed the largest free agent contract in Twins history. He came in and was expected to be the ace of the Twins staff. For anyone that paid even remotely close attention to the Twins last season, you know that couldn’t be further from the outcome.
Nolasco was a train-wreck, and dealt with injuries on and off throughout the season. His final ERA checked in a 5.38 and he compiled a 6-12 record in his first season with the Twins. While the numbers were bad, Nolasco’s defensive help wasn’t anything to be proud of either, his fielding independent pitching (FIP) checked in at 4.30.
Going into 2015, Nolasco should be expected to be one of the biggest bounce back candidates on the Twins roster. While he was never a lights out pitcher in the National League, he was above average. In 2013, his 3.70 ERA between the Marlins and Dodgers was the second best of his career. Now healthier and having had the ability to see most of the American League first hand, he should be able to be an asset to the Twins. I see his ERA somewhere right around 4.35
Prediction: Under 4.40 ERA for Ricky Nolasco
Aug 2, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher
Ervin Santana(30) pitches during the second inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Ervin Santana Strikeouts: 175
Pitching in the National League for the first time in his career a season ago, Ervin Santana fared well with the Atlanta Braves. He posted a 3.95 ERA along with 179 strikeouts in 196 innings for the Braves. With the Twins needing more strikeout pitchers in their rotation, Santana should provide plenty of that.
With that in mind, the 179 strikeouts Santana posted last season are the second highest mark in his career (totaled 214 in 2008 with the Angels). In 2013 while pitching with the Royals in the AL Central, Santana struck out only 161 batters across 211 innings. Expecting Santana to duplicate the success he had last season in the lesser hitting National League might be somewhat of a pipe dream.
Even if he experiences a slight decrease in strikeouts, the Twins only featured three pitchers with strikeout totals over 100 last season, and only one pitcher with more than 115 strikeouts. Ricky Nolasco should be somewhere around 130 this season, with Phil Hughes registering a total in the high 100’s again, but Santana should join them as well. I would lean towards Santana finishing his first year with the Twins throwing around 160 strikeouts.
Prediction: Under 175 strikeouts for Ervin Santana
May 17, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins coach
Paul Molitorlooks on from the dug out in the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Paul Molitor Ejections: 2
Replacing Ron Gardenhire is no small task. Despite losing the past four seasons, Gardy was a part of a Twins organization that became an annual threat in the AL Central during the early 2000’s. A change needed to be made heading into the 2015 season however, and Paul Molitor brings a new attitude to the clubhouse.
During his tenure with the Twins, Ron Gardenhire became synonymous with his ejection antics. From throwing his hat down to kicking dirt, you knew when Gardenhire was angry. During his introductory press conference, Molitor made a point to mention that he would be taking a no-nonsense approach to the clubhouse. Changes to music and work ethic would be felt throughout the organization. With that in mind, one has to question what his temper looks like.
I think it’s fair to assume that Molitor will be strict, and get after players, but that he also will do things different. Molitor seems to be more of a “behind closed doors” kind of manager, and doesn’t profile as the type to make a statement on the field. I have a hard time seeing him coming in and gaining the impression of a guy who gets thrown out of games in his first season as a big league manager. If Molitor gets tossed once this season, I think that’s the extent of it.
Prediction: Under 2 ejections for Paul Molitor
We are gaining ever closer to Spring Training kicking off for the Minnesota Twins, and many of these projections and off-season speculations will be put to the test. The only thing that is for certain is that baseball is nearly back.