Hot Takes: Five Bold AL Central Predictions

By Ted Schwerzler |

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Prior to the start of the 2015 Major League Baseball season, it’s a good idea to get a look at the lay of the land and take a realistic view at some themes that may play out over the course of the season. In what could be one of the best seasons for the AL Central in quite some time, there are plenty of storylines to monitor. While a handful involve the Twins, it’s also vital to know the competition.

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With both pitching and hitting prowess running rampant throughout the division, look for the AL Central to make plenty of waves this season. Expecting the Twins division to be one of the most competitive in baseball is not a far-fetched idea in the slightest.

The AL Central has always been relatively competitive, and the influx of talent this offseason takes it to an all new level. Here’s five bold predictions to watch for this season.

Sep 21, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins first baseman Joe Mauer (7) at bat against the Cleveland Indians at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Mauer Returns To Form

Starting on the Twins front, Joe Mauer should provide plenty of excitement for the AL Central team from Minnesota this offseason. Whether you deem excuses and distractions as one in the same, there were plenty of obstacles for the former catcher in 2014. The birth of twin girls, the move to first base, and once again injuries, Joe Mauer had little chance to get off the ground a year ago.

Now, with a season under his belt, he should be better prepared to adjust at the plate. Having to understand the strike zone without the ability to view it first hand prior to stepping in the batters box was a definite disadvantage for Mauer a season ago. His career slash line is .319/.401/.459, expect for those numbers to reappear this season.

Prediction: Mauer hits .310/.410/.447 in 2015

Sep 30, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Oakland Athletics designated hitter Brandon Moss (37) hits a three-run home run against the Kansas City Royals during the sixth inning of the 2014 American League Wild Card playoff baseball game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Moss Leads Division In Longballs

After dealing with the Oakland Athletics, the Cleveland Indians got a legitimate long ball threat back in the form of Brandon Moss. The last three seasons, Moss has hit at least 20 home runs in the pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum. While Progressive Field isn’t a prototypical hitters dream, the AL Central may prove to be.

The Indians wouldn’t have made the move for Moss unless the expected his boomstick to make the cross-country journey as well. In a lineup that Terry Francona should be excited about, expecting Brandon Moss to be amongst the leagues best in longballs isn’t a far-fetched idea. I expect Miguel Cabrera to have another down year in home runs, and that opens the door for a new division leader.

Prediction: Moss hits a career high 32 home runs

Sep 21, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Chicago White Sox right fielder Avisail Garcia (26) hits a solo home during the sixth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Minny Miggy Finally Shows Up

Avisail Garcia has been on the AL Central radar for quite some time now. Being an exciting prospect first for the Tigers, and then being dealt to the White Sox, Garcia has long been compared to Miguel Cabrera. While those are huge shoes to fill, the resemblances remain. After missing most of last season thanks to an early injury, I think this is the year we finally see some of the promising returns.

In just 42 games for the White Sox in 2013, Garcia hit .304/.327/.447. He launched five home runs and drove in 21 runs on a team that wasn’t any good. He strikes out far too often still (44K/14BB over 46 games in 2014), but his power bat should play plenty. Look for this to be the year Garcia breaks out onto the national stage.

Prediction: Garcia hits .275/.310/.430 with 24 home runs and 85 RBIs

Oct 3, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) throws a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles during the second inning of game two of the 2014 ALDS playoff baseball game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Verlander Becomes An Ace Again

No, I’m not just talking about Verlander taking that role in the de facto sense. Regardless of whether or not the Tigers resign Max Scherzer (and they really ought to), look for Verlander to prove 2014 was nothing more than an outlier.

Verlander is 31 (32 in February), and is the same age as the dominant Scherzer. Having strung together five-straight all-star seasons prior to last year, Verlander fell off a cliff. In 2011, Verlander won both the Cy Young and MVP award, and then followed the performance up by finishing second in the Cy Young race for 2012.

His 4.54 ERA last season was the second worst of his career. After posting a 4.84 ERA in 2008, Verlander rebounded to the tune of a 3.45 ERA the following season, and finished third in the Cy Young race. I’ll take the bait and argue that he sees a similar sort of rebound this season. The Tigers will be badly hoping for the same thing.

Prediction: Verlander throws to a 3.40 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 213 strikeouts, and a 8.8 K/9

Oct 28, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Yordano Ventura throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning during game six of the 2014 World Series at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tannen Maury/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports

Yordano Ventura Is Cy Young Worthy

I’m not necessarily ready to go out on enough of a limb to say he wins it, but Yordano Ventura is ready to take his place amongst the game’s elite. The rookie who proclaims “Let’s throw fire” prior to everyone one of his starts does just that. If you want to imagine what Aroldis Chapman looks like as a starter, look no further than Ventura.

In 2014, he racked up 159 strikeouts and a 7.8 K/9 ratio. Those numbers could have been even higher had he limited his walks (3.4BB/9). As a young pitcher, commands is typically one of the last things perfected, but I see 2015 being the year things click big for the young Dominican. Expect him to make small tweaks that take his game, and his pitching prowess, to the next level. Expecting 200 strikeouts, and a K/9 ration north of 9 is realistic for the young phenom.

Prediction: Ventura finishes in the top 3 of the Cy Young voting

Having given some thought and insight to each team in the AL Central, it is very apparent that this season is going to be a lot of fun for fans. With more talent than ever for the teams competing in one of baseballs toughest groupings, expect 2015 to be one to remember.

Make sure to check back later this week for the 2015 AL Central Projected Standings as well.

Next: Baseball Prospectus Ranks Twins Top 10 Prospects

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