Minnesota Twins: 5 Players To Regress In 2015
As 2014 has now officially come to a close, the 2015 Major League Baseball season is fast approaching. As the Twins prepare to head to Fort Myers and report for spring training, there is one key theme that could prove to be costly for Minnesota this year. With so many players experiencing breakout campaigns in 2014, should regression be a worry for the club?
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In looking ahead to the season that is, the Twins will need to get strong contributions out of every player on their 25 man roster if they plan to compete in 2015. Knowing that averages regress towards the mean, it is safe to say that they are a handful of players that can expect to go backwards this year for the Twins. With that in mind, the question becomes, how much does it really matter?
To fully understand the situation, let’s take a look at some of the most likely candidates to take steps backwards in 2015:
Sep 26, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Minnesota Twins catcher Kurt Suzuki (8) hits a two RBI single in the sixth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Quite possibly the most obvious candidate to take steps backwards this season, Suzuki found himself an All-Star in his first season with the Twins. After signing ahead of the 2014 season, Suzuki landed himself an extension as the season drew to a close. With a .257/.314/.376 career slash line, his 2014 numbers (.288/.345/.383) were all vast improvements. Despite being a below average defense catcher, Suzuki has always brought value in being a well-rounded player.
As 2015 kicks off, the expectation for Suzuki to remain an All-Star and hit for the same average he did a season ago is likely far-fetched. He will no longer be backed up by the likes of Eric Fryer, but instead will have a capable power bat in Josmil Pinto behind him. Striking out only 46 times across 131 games and 503 plate appearances set a career low for Suzuki. Even if that number rises some in 2015, his 34 walks a season ago suggest that he has been able to be more disciplined at the plate.
Suzuki remains the most likely candidate for significant regression, but even if that happens, the Twins should still get plenty of value out of pairing him with Pinto.
Sep 21, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins shortstop Danny Santana (39) throws to first in the fifth inning against the Cleveland Indians at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Probably the second most likely candidate for regression in 2015 with the Twins, is second-year player Danny Santana. Having played primarily as an unknown in the outfield a season ago, you can bet that opposing pitchers will have had more time to study Santana’s tendencies this season. The positional shift to shortstop could also deter Santana’s focus at the plate to a certain extent.
In 2014, Santana posted a .319/.353/.472 slash line for the Twins. His 98 strikeouts as opposed to only 19 walks could catch up to him in 2015. As pitchers realize that Santana is prone to swing the bat, they will try to force him to fish for pitches out of the zone. Batting in what will likely be the leadoff spot, Santana will be relied upon to be the table setter. Paul Molitor will look to utilize his speed on the basepaths, but it is only an asset if he can reach at a relatively high clip.
I’d argue it’s fair to believe that Santana can continue to round out into a solid major leaguer, that being said, I would also caution that 2014 might be the outlier rather than the norm. The Twins should be ecstatic if Santana can play a good shortstop, bat around .280, and cut down on his strikeouts in the year ahead.
Sep 27, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier (2) hits an RBI single in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
2014 was a tale of two seasons for the Twins second basemen. For the early half of the year, Dozier looked like the best second basemen in baseball. He on a ridiculous tear and deserved to be mentioned higher than the likes of Robinson Cano, Jose Altuve, and Dustin Pedroia. That all seemed to come to a crashing half as the season wore on however.
After blasting home runs left and right to open 2014, and being selected to participate in the Home Run Derby, Dozier significantly cooled off in the second half. The Twins second basemen finished with a .242/.345/.416 slash line; outside of the uptick in on-base-percentage, Dozier replicated his 2013 line (.244/.312/.414).
Many will argue that Brian Dozier needs to hit for a higher average, but that probably couldn’t be further from the truth. Hitting 18 and 23 home runs the last two seasons respectively, while driving in 66 and 71 in that same time span, Dozier has proven his bat can provide consistency. Scoring a major league leading 112 runs a season ago, he also proved he gets on base at a high enough clip to be an asset at the top of the lineup. The Twins will hope that Dozier can cut down on his strikeouts (129 a season ago), but his career high in walks (89) shows that he has an advanced level of discipline.
Of the candidates for regression, Dozier remains amongst those least likely to see a significant fall off. If anything, Molitor and the Twins will be hoping for consistency throughout the season as a whole, rather than major peaks and valleys.
Sep 15, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe (24) hits a single in the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Target Field. The Tigers won 8-6. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Last season, Plouffe should have likely been pushed for playing time by prospect, Miguel Sano. Unfortunately, Sano’s season ended before it started after he underwent Tommy John surgery. Minnesota however has to be pleased with how Plouffe responded, and handled the hot corner in 2014.
Not only did Plouffe show an advanced level of fielding ability and range, but his bat continued to play for the Twins. Setting career highs across the board, Plouffe slashed .258/.328/.423. He also hit 14 home runs for the second season in a row, and drove in a career high 80 runs. At the plate, he cut down on his strikeouts (impressive considering he had 60 more plate appearances a season ago than he did in 2013), as well as setting a new career high in walks (53).
As 2015 kicks off, Plouffe will once again know that his leash is short. Should he find himself regressing either in the field, or at the plate, Miguel Sano could be at Target Field sooner than expected. Likely a candidate to switch positions upon the arrival of Sano, it will be on Plouffe to show Minnesota that he is worth keeping in the lineup. Looking at the year-by-year trend, it’s fair to assume Plouffe can continue the same uptick in production, and possibly expand on his home run totals in 2015.
Sep 13, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Phil Hughes (45) throws a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning in game one of a doubleheader at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
The only pitcher to make the list really shouldn’t surprise anyone. For the heart of 2014, Hughes looked like a Cy Young candidate, and was easily the best free agent signing for the Twins in years. That being said, it really shouldn’t have been all that much of a surprise. Hughes was a highly regarded talent when drafted by the Yankees, and playing in a very hitter friendly Yankee Stadium did him no favors.
Upon his arrival in a larger, and more major league comparable ballpark in Target Field, Hughes posted career numbers with a 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.0 K/9. He also posted Major League Baseball records with 0.7 BB/9 and 11.63 K/BB numbers. It’s relatively safe to say that Hughes was nothing short of spectacular last season.
In 2015, as the expected Twins ace, Hughes will have even more pressure on his plate. That being said, the nucleus of what is around him being better should play to his advantage. With an offense that has improved after producing the 7th most runs in baseball a season ago, and a pitching staff that should have fewer holes, Hughes should benefit from his surroundings. Despite a career 4.32 ERA, it’s safe to assume that Hughes will once again post an ERA under 4, and likely not above 3.8. He’s an efficient pitcher, and he has been in the major leagues long enough to know how to adjust. Look for Hughes to once again be the leader of the Twins staff.
As a whole, the Twins should feel as though they have a stable of talent when turning the calendar towards 2015. Despite having a handful of candidates prime for regression, there is enough other options that will be able to pick up the slack. Baseball on a year-by-year basis is always going to see ups and downs in production, the key is limiting the peaks and the valleys while having others step up.
Minnesota will need another Danny Santana or Kennys Vargas to emerge this year, and should they be as competitive as they seem to be poised for, that will likely happen. With maybe one last chance left for him, look for Aaron Hicks to be someone to watch. Oswaldo Arcia could decide to carry his hot end of 2014 into the new year, or one of the young prospects might be the one to make the leap. Expect Ricky Nolasco to have a bounce back season from the mound, and the Twins to once again develop a few relievers into key pieces.
At the end of the day, regression isn’t something to worry about, it’s merely a discussion piece to be aware of and build around. Here’s to seeing what exciting developments 2015 has in store.
Next: Projecting Your Minnesota Twins 2015 Opening Day Lineup
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