Projecting The Twins 5th Starter
Earlier this week, we took a look at what the Minnesota Twins 2015 rotation may look like. At this point, Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Ricky Nolasco are all locks for the rotation. An expected possibility would be that Kyle Gibson would occupy the fourth spot in the starting rotation. This leaves the 5th spot an open competition, and there is a slew of possibilities the Twins could explore.
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Consider that the Minnesota Twins can finally consider pitching an asset in 2015, and that the options available to them should lead to a vast improvement on the mound. Although the club may lack that front line starter that many teams have, the depth of quality arms is to be noted. When it comes to breaking down the possibilities for the 5th starter, it may be best to do so on an individual basis.
Starting with the most likely possibilities, and going through them all, let’s take a look…
Jul 13, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; USA pitcher Alex Meyer throws a pitch during the All Star Futures Game at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Meyer was the piece that the Twins got back in return for sending Denard Span to the Washington Nationals. At the time of the trade, Meyer was viewed by many as a potential staff ace and number one pitcher down the road. Now, 26-years-old, Meyer finds himself toiling through Triple-A innings. He likely would, or should have, been called up in September last season had he not dealt with shoulder issues. At this point, it could be argued that this is a make or break time for Meyer. Prospects are no longer thought of in the same realm when they still reside in the minors past the age of 24 or 25. Although Meyer has struggled with command to a certain extent, he has a strong ability to strike batters out, and can continue to refine his command at the major league level. Meyer remains the most intriguing candidate for the 5th spot in the rotation, and has arguably the highest ceiling of the bunch.
Aug 28, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Tommy Milone (49) delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
Last season, Terry Ryan struck gold when he snatched Sam Fuld up off of waivers from the Oakland Athletics. The Twins needed depth in the outfield, and Fuld gave them a legitimate center fielder. Later in the year, he was able to trade Fuld back to his former team for a major league quality starter in Milone. Oakland had a log jam in the starting rotation and Milone was the odd man out. Despite pitching through injuries down the stretch last season, Milone is more than capable of being a reliable back-end-of-the-rotation kind of pitcher. Should Meyer not get the spot, it will be because the Twins deem Milone as a safer option.
Sep 25, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Trevor May (65) pitches in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
A season ago, Trevor May made his major league debut with the Twins. Being the bigger draw, and only remaining piece of the trade that sent Ben Revere to the Philadelphia Phillies, May is a part of the Twins long term plans. Projecting as a middle-of-the-rotation type starter, May showed promise as the season came to a close. Despite struggling with command and getting batters out in his first few starts, he seemed to put things together as the season drew to a close. What’s working against May most may be positioning. Both Meyer and Milone seem to be more logical options for the 5th spot, and May could slot into the former long relief and spot start role once occupied by Anthony Swarzak. I would bet against May being logically considered for the starting rotation.
May 1, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey (37) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Over the last two seasons, Pelfrey has been nothing short of a train wreck. He has posted 5.19 and 7.99 ERA the last two years and has only pitched in 34 games for the Twins over that time span. Obviously injuries have played a big part in the derailment of Pelfrey’s tenure with the Twins. Coming off yet another injury marred season in 2014, it is likely best to rely on Pelfrey out of the bullpen as an innings eater. He projects as someone who should be able to adequately handle that role, and has the benefit of having previous starting experience. Like May, I don’t see any way Pelfrey figures into the Twins starting rotation in 2015.
Jul 13, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; World pitcher Jose Berrios throws a pitch in the first inning during the All Star Futures Game at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Considering he addressed it as his goal, and we recently found out that Berrios has received a non-roster invite to spring training, this is an option worth being addressed. Last season, Berrios tore up the Florida State League, over-powering batters left and right. Success continued, although not to the same extent, at Double-A New Britain. He made a start late in the season for Triple-A Rochester as well. In 2015, I would assume that Berrios starts at Double-A Chatanooga, but is quickly moved up to Rochester. Although I don’t see Berrios pitching out of the 5th spot in the rotation to start the season, I think it’s a very real possibility that he makes starts for the Twins by the end of the summer or early fall.
Sep 7, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins pitcher Logan Darnell (38) pitches in the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
The Field
As with every team, the Twins will undoubtedly have to turn the ball over to some less than predictable options this season. None of these names will figure into the 5th spot out of the gate for the Twins, but they could all end up making spot starts down the road. Among this group, I would consider Logan Darnell, Lester Oliveros, J.R. Graham, and potentially Stephen Pryor. Darnell and Oliveros have been Twins farm hands for a while, with both having made starts for the Twins in 2014. Graham is a Rule 5 addition for the Twins and has a very interesting pedigree. He has battled injuries and never lived up to his potential, but was once believed to have a very high ceiling. Pryor was the return the Twins got for Kendrys Morales, and despite being utilized as a reliever, he could be stretched out if needed.
The biggest takeaway from this list as a whole is that for the first time in a long while, Minnesota has options. The Twins have four quality arms that occupy the bulk of the rotation, and they have a slew of options that can slot into the final rotation spot and provide quality starts. If the Twins are going to bounce back in 2015, it will be thanks to a bounce back effort as a whole.
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