Preseason Player Projections Review

Hicks has exceeded expectations on defense at least. (Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

I meant to post this at the midway point of the season but sometimes life happens. Anyways, it’s still a good point to compare how the Twins are performing this year to the projections I had for them to start the year. The top set of statistics is my projections. The bottom set is the Twins’ statistics from the midway point pro-rated for 162 games.

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	TB	BA	SLG	OBP	OPS
Aaron Hicks	42	561	102	155	34	7	16	69	20	65	251	0.276	0.447	0.351	0.799
Brian Dozier	134	551	89	154	22	7	10	42	23	47	220	0.279	0.399	0.336	0.735
Joe Mauer	145	545	84	187	34	3	16	91	4	88	275	0.343	0.505	0.434	0.939
Josh Willingham	155	541	81	137	30	1	28	99	3	68	253	0.253	0.468	0.337	0.804
Justin Morneau	136	534	85	165	28	1	32	103	2	61	291	0.309	0.545	0.380	0.925
Trevor Plouffe	132	497	69	133	23	1	25	75	2	42	233	0.268	0.469	0.325	0.793
Joe Benson	121	463	73	119	18	4	14	51	13	48	187	0.257	0.404	0.327	0.731
Chris Parmelee	120	460	57	107	21	2	17	62	2	41	183	0.233	0.398	0.295	0.693
Ryan Doumit	120	430	51	120	25	0	17	70	1	31	196	0.279	0.456	0.328	0.783
Pedro Florimon	111	404	37	96	13	5	5	29	12	31	134	0.238	0.332	0.292	0.624
Darin Mastroianni	100	375	60	100	15	4	7	42	25	36	144	0.267	0.384	0.331	0.715
Jamey Carroll	107	367	51	107	19	1	1	34	9	41	131	0.292	0.357	0.363	0.720
Eduardo Escobar	75	210	15	45	8	2	1	12	9	13	60	0.214	0.286	0.260	0.546
Drew Butera	32	95	6	19	5	0	1	6	0	5	27	0.200	0.284	0.240	0.524
Chris Herrmann	32	95	8	23	7	1	1	9	1	9	35	0.242	0.368	0.308	0.676
		6128	868	1667	302	39	191	794	126	626	2620	0.272	0.428	0.340	0.767

NAME	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	TB	BA	SLG	OBP	OPS
Joe Mauer	155	622	89	197	49	0	15	58	0	86	289	0.316	0.465	0.397	0.862
Justin Morneau	151	579	67	157	40	0	13	93	0	44	235	0.270	0.406	0.329	0.734
Ryan Doumit	142	513	55	124	31	2	15	69	2	46	202	0.241	0.394	0.301	0.695
Brian Dozier	142	491	67	115	22	4	15	62	15	51	187	0.233	0.381	0.313	0.694
Josh Willingham	127	448	58	100	24	0	18	67	2	71	178	0.224	0.398	0.356	0.754
Chris Parmelee	147	428	35	98	22	0	15	36	2	47	164	0.230	0.383	0.308	0.691
Aaron Hicks	118	411	60	82	18	5	13	38	11	36	149	0.199	0.363	0.266	0.629
Trevor Plouffe	111	410	47	106	20	2	16	60	2	31	178	0.258	0.436	0.320	0.756
Pedro Florimon	135	410	40	93	16	0	7	51	15	33	131	0.227	0.320	0.283	0.603
Oswaldo Arcia	106	368	36	96	20	2	11	46	2	27	153	0.262	0.416	0.323	0.739
Jamey Carroll	80	268	29	58	9	0	0	15	2	20	67	0.218	0.252	0.272	0.524
Eduardo Escobar	100	238	36	51	4	4	5	16	0	18	78	0.214	0.328	0.268	0.596
Clete Thomas	55	186	31	46	7	0	5	15	0	22	69	0.245	0.373	0.325	0.697
Wilkin Ramirez	42	82	5	20	5	0	0	9	0	2	25	0.244	0.311	0.271	0.582
Chris Colabello	13	29	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.125	0.125	0.125	0.250
Chris Herrmann	13	24	5	11	2	0	2	7	0	4	18	0.462	0.769	0.533	1.303
Darin Mastroianni	15	16	2	4	0	0	0	0	2	2	4	0.222	0.222	0.300	0.522
Scott Diamond	29	13	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.143	0.143	0.143	0.286
		5535	664	1361	289	18	149	642	53	539	2135	0.246	0.386	0.313	0.699

Overall, so far, I’m doing quite poorly without some second half surges. I expected the Twins to actually be pretty good offensively this year. My biggest miss was on Morneau. I really thought he was finally back and feeling like his old self after the concussions and would bounce back for a big year. That hasn’t happened at all. I also thought Hicks had finally figured things out and would be a top Rookie of the Year contender. I still think his second half stats might approach my full projection rates. Josh Willingham struggled and then got hurt but his rate stats could still end up pretty close to what I had for him. I also thought Joe Benson would grab a spot that instead went to Oswaldo Arcia. The one I did hit out of the park at least so far is Chris Parmelee as his stats and my projections are almost identical. Most guys are performing slightly below what I expected. That combined with nobody performing better than I expected adds up to a very bad hitting team. But there’s still a lot of season for these guys to turn it around and at least post respectable numbers. We’ll take another look in October to see how I really did.

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Preseason Player Projections Review – Hitters

By Chris Holm | Jul 25, 2013