Some Potential Trade Deadline Deals

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We’re just nine days away from the 2009 non-waiver trade deadline and the Twins, like most teams, have some holes to fill. They need to make some moves to address the team both now and for the future. I may or may not dabble into Beyond the Boxscore’s trade value calculator in this post. Ah heck with it, I’ll do it. Without further ado….

Twins trade LHP Glen Perkins to Angels for 3B Brandon Wood

Twins fans, and the organization have Danny Valencia pegged as their 3B of the future. Pish posh I say, especially when a potential impact bat is so lowly regarded by the organization in which he resides. Perkins has been a 5th starter, and will only ever be a 5th starter, for the Twins, but he should be a 2 WAR player or so over the life of is cost controlled years. That’s a pretty valuable player:

Glen Perkins
YearSal (M)WARVal (M)Net (M)Sal (M)Arb %
2009$0.42.5$11.5$11.0$0.4
2010$0.41.3$6.3$5.8$0.4
2011$2.51.3$6.3$3.840%
2012$3.81.3$6.3$2.560%
2013$5.01.3$6.3$1.380%
2014
2015
2016
FA Picks$5.0
Total$12.17.7$41.5$29.3

I gave Perkins 2.5 WAR for 2009, because that is roughly what he is on pace for, but after that I knocked him down to a weighted average of 2009 and 2008, his first year as a starter. Using Erik Manning’s table, we can see that a stud hitting prospect would be a fair return for Perkins. However, a couple caveats need to be included: First, this trade value calculator really breaks down for low WAR players and cost controlled guys. Well I shouldn’t say really breaks down, but a couple minor flaws: If you have just a 1 WAR player, you have a player more valuable than any prospect except top 50 hitters. No team would trade a top 50 hitting prospect for a 1 WAR player. Secondly, as Sky Kalkman points out, having a guy around 1 WAR for six years is unrealistic. Chances are he either has a career year, or is out of baseball shortly. Thirdly, Perkins-type players are indeed so valuable because of the frequency with which prospects reach their ceiling. For every Evan Longoria that panned out, there are tens of players who never made the big leagues or who were never above replacement.

So, all things being equal, Perkins is worth probably more than just Brandon Wood, but it would have to be a low level pitching prospect to even it out, something not worth haggling over if you want to get a deal done.

Twins trade OF Rene Tosoni to DBacks for RHP Chad Qualls

In 2008 Qualls had a 2.77 FIP for the DBacks and put up a strikeout rate of 8.67. He also cut his walk rate from 2.20 to 1.13. Qualls gets a ton of groundballs (career rate of 59%), and doesn’t allow a lot of homers. Qualls’s .325 BABIP is on pace to be the highest of his career, and his ERA is a bit high (3.63), but given his underlying numbers and the improvements he’s made over the past couple years, he would be a very worthwhile addition to the team.

Chad Qualls
YearSal (M)WARVal (M)Net (M)Sal (M)Arb %
2009$0.80.5$2.5$1.6$0.8
2010$6.41.7$8.1$1.680%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
FA Picks$5.0
Total$7.32.2$15.5$8.2

Qualls is only under team control until the end of the 2010 season, although the Diamondbacks (or Twins if they are smart enough to get him) will likely offer him a contract extension. Whether or not this is a good deal depends on how you evaluate Tosoni. If he is a top 100 hitter he’d be worth around 12 million and the Twins would actually be overpaying. There is a chance he cracks the top 100 based on the great season he’s having in AA this year (.391 wOBA) but given the fact that he isn’t especially toolsy and the Twins have both Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere, Tosoni for Qualls would be a good trade, assuming Qualls signs a team friendly contract to keep him in town beyond 2010.

I’ll have more potential deals in the next week, as well as analysis of any deals that affect the Twins.