When most people think of the word “war”, they think of either of the World Wars, violence, disputes over land or even over other people.  However, what does WAR mean to a baseball fan? WAR is the acronym Wins Above Replacement, and to a fan it means tracking your favorite players on your favorite team in a unique way that creates a tangible number to represent the success, or failures, of those players throughout the season.  As you would imagine, the higher the number, the better the player.  The term “replacement” in WAR’s case represents a fictional, average Triple-A ball-player who is set to replace a major league player, presumably because of injury or other baseball inactivity.  The final number a player receives as their WAR ranking is how many wins their respected team would have with their starting, everyday player versus an average Triple-A replacement player.

Because of this term, teams are putting more emphasis on a players WAR ranking.  GMs and managers should now be considering this stat for who to pick up via free agency, acquire through a trade, or even get rid of altogether if a player is performing below expectations, *cough* Nick Blackburn.

Now think about the Minnesota Twins, they are an under-achieving team with more questions than answers as well as the dreaded “rebuilding” term floating around going into next season.  A fan would look at this year and imagine the Twins would have one of, if not the worst WAR ranking in all of baseball, which is true but for only one aspect of their team. WAR computes hitters/fielders separately from pitchers and their endeavors on the field.  Either way, fielders or pitchers, a player’s WAR number gives them a word status ranging from “scrub” to MVP caliber players.  The general consensus for grouping players and their WAR rankings in 2010, according to FanGraphs.com, was:

Consider this, Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) is having a season for the ages. His WAR, as of September 20, 2012, is 9.2.  That is nearly a full two points higher than the second highest ranking, being shared by Ryan Braun and Andrew McCutchen in the National League respectively, and a full three points higher than triple crown hopeful Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers!  Despite Cabrera’s triple crown push and because of Trout’s potential playoff saving season for the Angels, Trout is the front-runner and almost a guarantee for MVP.

The Twins 2012 season may provoke adjectives such as; dismal, disappointing, and simply…gross.  But with every terrible season, there is always a silver-lining.  Even with a 90 loss season lurking in the near future, their have been a few perks for the “looking forward to next year” Twins.  They have their two franchise players, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, playing into September with little more than a few games here or there missed due to minor injuries; Josh Willingham has been nothing short of an absolute steal all season, producing at an extremely high, and if on a playoff bound team, a MVP caliber level; then of course the emergence of Trevor Plouffe as a much anticipated and needed every day third baseman.  With a team WAR ranking placing them 13th in all of baseball offensively, the Twins are considered to be a better hitting and fielding team than the two top dogs in the American League Central, Detroit (15th) and Chicago White Sox (22nd).  One would think the Twins would be a legitimate contender in the Central Division race, however, there is another aspect to a teams overall WAR ranking.

Twins pitching ranks dead last in WAR compared to all other teams in the majors.  In fact, their WAR is a humorous 5.1, meaning that if the entire Twins pitching staff was replaced by a troupe of average Triple-A pitchers, “The Replacements” would only lose five less games than the current players on staff!  Take into consideration that aside from Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Jared Burton and Brian Duensing, the rest of the current pitching staff all began the season in Triple-A and even lower.  Despite the revolving door from minors to the majors for these players, this number is still pathetic.

If the Twins expect to be contenders next year they are going to need to improve their pitching WAR number.  With some good quality starting pitching being bountiful via free agency, such as: Jake Peavy, (if the White Sox do not pick up his $22 million option) Zack Greinke, James Shields, Kyle Lohse, and Brandon McCarthy to name a few, even with the Pohlad pocket book locked in a chastity belt and his signing hand still recovering from the Joe Mauer contract, I’m sure there is enough room to lock up at least one of the starters for next year.  I mean, any pitcher should be better than Blackburn’s -0.8 he posted this season in, thankfully, limited duty.

That’s okay. There’s room in this world for all types of baseball fans: some who just enjoy the athleticism and tension of the game, some who prefer to analyze and memorize every moment in the game with numbers, and the rest of us, who are somewhere in between. People in the first category don’t care about Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and people in the second category have probably already memorized the WAR of every player in the last 20 years, so this article is for the third category.

The formulas for calculating WAR differ for pitchers and hitters, but both are too complex for me to explain in this space. If you really want to know how to calculate a player’s WAR, here’s a good place to learn. Instead, I would like to bring to your attention a simple WAR calculator, courtesy of Lewie Pollis of Fansided’s Indians site, Wahoo’s on First. Just plug in a player’s stats, and give an estimate of how good his fielding and running skills are, and you’ll get a pretty decent estimate of the player’s WAR. For example, I input Joe Mauer‘s data from 2011, giving him a 4 for below average baserunning and a 3 for above average fielding, and the calculator put his WAR at 2.0. According to Fangraphs, he actual WAR was 1.9 last year, so the estimate is pretty close.

What does this all mean? Simply put, WAR is a good estimate of how much better a player is for your team than a “replacement player,” or a AAA callup/benchwarmer. You might think that the 2011 Twins consisted entirely of replacement level players, but it turns out they could have been much worse. According to Fangraphs, Twins hitters had a collective WAR of 10.0 last season, and pitchers’ WAR was 10.8, for a team total of 20.8. You would usually expect a team full of replacement-level players to win about 45 games (though estimates vary), so the 2011 Twins’ win total of 63 was very close to the total of 66 that WAR would predict. (more…)

10. Clint Courtney (1951-1961) (With Twins org. from 1955-1959)

Courtney certainly didn’t get it done with the bat. His -28 batting runs is close to the worst on this list. But he did play a lot, and he did play well defensively. He was 2nd in the rookie of the year voting in 1952, although by that time he was already 25 so that is not to be unexpected. His Washington teams were terrible, finishing 7th, 8th,8th and 8th in the American League. The 1959 team did feature a 20 year old Jim Kaat, however.

9. John Warner (1895-1908; with Twins org. from 1907-1908)

Yikes. Warner sure couldn’t hit. That wOBA is atrocious. But he played a heck of a long time, and that really was the only thing that gave him any value. His best year was a 1.7 WAR season in 1903, and his .4555 WAR per season is terrible, and the lowest on the list.

8. Brian Harper (1979-1995; with Twins org. from 1988-1993)

Besides his first year with the club in 1988 when he had only 179 plate appearances, Harper’s worst year with the Twins was actually 1991, when he won the World Series with the team. Harper had a 1.7 WAR that year, even though he was a good hitter in 1991: he had a 111 OPS+, helped out by his 10 homers, which were just two off his career high. Harper wasn’t a regular until 1989, his age 29 season, so the fact that he is 8th on this list speaks to, well, something.

7. AJ Pierzynski (1998-; with Twins org. from 1998-2003)

God I hate this guy. But, he was a good player for the Twins. The Twins parlayed a career year in his age 26 season (3.7 WAR) into a trade that continues to be discussed amongst the great fleecings ever, although its star has dimmed a bit in recent years. AJ has never walked or struck out much, but lacks the natural talent of say Vlad Guerrero to make that approach work.

6. Earl Battey (1955-1967; with Twins org. from 1961-1967)

Battey put up nearly all his value in seven seasons (though not the seven with the Twins) including a 4.4 WAR season in 1963 and a 3.8 WAR season in 1965. Battey won three gold gloves (and during his best years was actually good behind the plate, not like Nate McClouth in center) and he caught Jack Kralick’s no hitter in 1962. Sadly Battey died of cancer in 2003 at the age of 68.

5. Johnny Roseboro (1957-1970; with Twins org. from 1968-1969)

Roseboro wasn’t a very good hitter, as evidenced by his career wOBA of just .306. He didn’t have a lot of power (104 HR in 14 seasons) and didn’t get on base a lot (career .326), but he had a good glove, and in fact was good enough defensively to spend some time in center field. Roseboro is probably best known for being the catcher who took over for Roy Campanella after Campanella was paralyzed in a terrible car accident. He won three World Series with the Dodgers, and 1963 was the only lefty to hit a homer off Yankee pitcher Whitey Ford.

4. Rick Ferrell (1929-1947; with Twins org. from 1937-1941 and 1944-1945)

Hopefully you pervs out there won’t get too excited at the number of Ferrell’s plate appearances. Ferrell was certainly not an amazing catcher, but had a very good bat. The best hitting catcher on the list so far had some very high OBPs (career high .406, career .378) but had just 28 career home runs. He made 7 all-star teams, and was voted into the Hall of Fame in 1984. This didn’t draw high praise from all over however, as Keith Olbermann said in his book Welcome to the Big Show, “If Ferrell’s in, put em all in.”

3. Butch Wynegar (1976-1988; with Twins org. from 1976-1982)

Wynegar was another catcher who wasn’t fantastic hitting wise (below average at a 93 OPS+), but had a good glove and played a ton of seasons to rack up a 24.7 WAR. His best years were all with the Twins, which suggests he really fell off a cliff production wise. He was 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting in 1976, when he had a .356 OBP, 10 HR and walked 16 times more than he struck out.

2. Joe Mauer (2004-; with Twins org. from 2004-)

He’s been the best offensive catcher in Twins history and among the best defensive. The only thing keeping him from the number 1 slot on the list is some playing time. In fact he will probably be there by the time 2009 ends. I’ve said everything I need to say about Mauer, but by the time he’s done he may very well be the best catcher ever.

1. Terry Steinbach (1986-1999; with Twins org. from 1997-1999)

Steinbach has a good WAR, but a lot of that is due to playing time. He was not very good with the Twins (3.1 WAR in 3 seasons), but the former Gopher won a World Series in 1989 with the A’s. Steinbach caught Dave Stewart’s no hitter in 1990 and Eric Milton’s in 1999, and was the 1988 All-Star game MVP. I have to say, Steinbach was pretty vanilla and it will be nice to see Mauer overtake him eventually.

]]> http://puckettspond.com/2009/08/12/top-ten-catchers-in-twins-history/feed/ 2