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		<title>Assessing the Twins&#8217; trade bait</title>
		<link>http://puckettspond.com/2012/05/06/assessing-the-twins-trade-bait/</link>
		<comments>http://puckettspond.com/2012/05/06/assessing-the-twins-trade-bait/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 May 2012 20:36:15 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[&#160; One month into the 2012 season, it appears the Twins are destined for another losing season. When the team is 12 games under .500 in the first week of May, that is a pretty reliable sign that they should start to look to the future, rather than go all-in for the present. One time-tested [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div id="attachment_7427" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/2/files/2012/05/6205896.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-7427" title="MLB: Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/2/files/2012/05/6205896-300x197.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="197" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Be ready to hear Denard Span&#39;s name in the rumor mill this summer. Photo by Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE</p></div>
<p>One month into the 2012 season, it appears the Twins are destined for another losing season. When the team is 12 games under .500 in the first week of May, that is a pretty reliable sign that they should start to look to the future, rather than go all-in for the present.</p>
<p>One time-tested way of building for the future is to trade away the aging, overpriced veterans to contending teams and get some young players or prospects in return. The Twins owe their 1991 championship team in part to the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;id=viola-002fra" target="_blank">Frank Viola</a></strong> trade two years previously, when the 1989 season was starting to look like a loss. That trade brought future star pitchers Kevin Tapani and Rick Aguilera from the Mets. Later in that decade, another bottom-feeding Twins team swapped Chuck Knoblauch to the Yankees for shortstop <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;id=guzman001chr" target="_blank">Christian Guzman</a></strong>, pitcher <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/miltoer01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Eric Milton</a></strong>, and two others. Milton and Guzman were key components of the team&#8217;s return to relevance in 2001 and 2002.</p>
<p>This year&#8217;s Twins do not have a superstar like Viola or Knoblauch who is likely to yield a Tapani or Milton in return, but they do have a large number of players that look like decent trade bait. With some intelligent negotiating, Terry Ryan could get the groundwork started for that 2014 World Championship team we&#8217;re all hoping to see.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Denard Span</a></strong></p>
<p>Span is the most interesting name we might hear in trade rumors this summer. He is a great defender and a very good hitter who is off to a positive start at the plate (.308/.357/.383). What team wouldn&#8217;t want a speedy, versatile outfielder who can bat leadoff? Span is also signed to a relatively low-salary contract through 2014, with an option for 2015, so a team wouldn&#8217;t have to feel guilty about parting with some high-ceiling prospects for a short-term rental. But that team-friendly contract is exactly the reason the Twins might not want to trade Span away. The Twins may be planning to build around Span, and if they rise off the AL Central floor in 2013 or 2014, they may want to have Span&#8217;s bat and veteran leadership to help with the playoff chase. Last season, the Nationals made a push to acquire Span; if Washington keeps leading the NL East and starting outfielder <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nadyxa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Xavier Nady</a></strong> hitting .123, the Nats might inquire after him again this year.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pavanca01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carl Pavano</a></strong></p>
<p>Every year we hear of several teams that could use a veteran arm to replace their #4 or #5 starters. As a 14 year MLB veteran who has a World Series ring and significant postseason experience, Pavano could be a sought after commodity this summer. His velocity is down, but Pavano is a remarkably consistent innings-eater. The Twins acquired Pavano after the deadline in 2009 for AA pitcher <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;id=pino--001yoh" target="_blank">Yohan Pino</a></strong>. If they trade him before the deadline this year, they might get a slightly better return.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marquja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jason Marquis</a></strong></p>
<p>Marquis was traded at the deadline last year, from Washington to Arizona for decent-hitting shortstop Zachary Walter. Walter was a 10th round pick just a year earlier. As was the case last season, Marquis&#8217;s contract expires at the end of the year, so if the Twins got another Walteresque offer, they should definitely pull the string. Added bonus for any team interested in Marquis: he is a playoff good luck charm whose teams have made the playoffs in 11 of his 12 MLB seasons.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Josh Willingham</a></strong></p>
<p>He was a strong offseason acquisition, given the assumption that the Twins were trying to compete this year and needed a right-handed veteran hitter. But he is already 33 years old, and if the Twins are going to require a couple years of rebuilding, Willingham is guaranteed to be past his prime when that plan comes to fruition. So why not look at trading him? His hot start (five homers and a batting average over .300) can only increase his value on the trade market.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cappsma01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Matt Capps</a></strong></p>
<p>Does anyone need a relief pitcher? The Twins cannot be the only team that buys the &#8220;proven closer&#8221; story, so as long as Capps puts up some good numbers early in the season, there should be some teams interested. He has converted all five of his save chances so far. One potential suitor: the Yankees. No, seriously. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverma01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Mariano Rivera</a></strong> is out for the season, and while the Yankees are not reckless enough to install Capps as their replacement closer, they are shifting uber-talented setup man <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberda08.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">David Robertson</a></strong> into that role. Another veteran reliever could help fill the gap left by Robertson.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valenda01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Danny Valencia</a></strong></p>
<p>At first glance, Valencia does not appear to be an attractive trade candidate. He has scuffled at the plate and the field ever since his succesful rookie season in 2010. But a couple of teams &#8211; the Giants and the Rays &#8211; have suffered injuries at the third base position, and they <a title="MLB Trade Rumors, Valencia news" href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/05/stark-on-rays-giants-phillies-ethier-nationals.html" target="_blank">may want to look at Valencia</a> as a replacement. Valencia is under team control through 2016, but he probably does not fit into the Twins&#8217; long term plans at third base, since <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;id=sano--001mig" target="_blank">Miguel Sano</a></strong> is widely expected to be the franchise&#8217;s savior.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doumiry01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ryan Doumit</a></strong></p>
<p>The Twins only have Doumit through the end of the year, so there is not much point in keeping him if they are not going to win now. National League teams may want him as a switch-hitting pinch hitter. American League teams may want him as a DH and backup catcher. The Twins probably wouldn&#8217;t get much for him, but it&#8217;s worth seeing what offers are out there.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morneju01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Justin Morneau</a></strong></p>
<p>This one is a longshot, but worth mentioning. Assuming Morneau&#8217;s wrist heals soon without further incident, and assuming that he starts to hit the way he did briefly in the season&#8217;s second week, Morneau could garner some interest on the trade front. It&#8217;s doubtful that any team would want to pick up his entire $14 million salary this year (with an equal amount next year), but if the Twins wanted to trade him, they could agree to pay part of that. Adding the former MVP would be a boost for any team that needs a powerful lefty bat.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>So Now What?</title>
		<link>http://puckettspond.com/2010/07/09/so-now-what/</link>
		<comments>http://puckettspond.com/2010/07/09/so-now-what/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Jul 2010 21:02:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Twins]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://twinkietalk.com/?p=1944</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So, Cliff Lee (probably) isn&#8217;t going to be a Twin after all (UPDATE:  It&#8217;s official, Lee is spoken for).  That&#8217;s disappointing, because a Lee-Liriano 1-2 punch would have been fun to watch, even if it were only for half of the season. As an analyst, I think it&#8217;s a terrible idea to give up even [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="text-align: center"><a href="http://view.picapp.com/pictures.photo/entertainment/seattle-mariners-detroit/image/9289753?term=cliff+lee" target="_blank"><img src="http://view.picapp.com/pictures.photo/image/9289753/seattle-mariners-detroit/seattle-mariners-detroit.jpg?size=380&amp;imageId=9289753" border="0" alt="July 04, 2010 - Detroit, MI, UNITED STATES - epa02237008 Seattle Mariners pitcher Cliff Lee on the bench after he left the game after the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan, USA on 04 July 2010. Lee was the winning pitcher as the Mariners beat the Tigers 8-1." width="234" height="345" /></a><script src="http://view.picapp.com//JavaScripts/OTIjs.js" type="text/javascript"></script></div>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>So, <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/if-the-rangers-get-lee-the-fur-is-gonna-fly.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&amp;utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank">Cliff Lee (probably) isn&#8217;t going to be a Twin after all</a> (UPDATE:  <a href="https://twitter.com/jclong/status/18148230036" target="_blank">It&#8217;s official, Lee is spoken for</a>).  That&#8217;s disappointing, because a Lee-Liriano 1-2 punch would have been fun to watch, even if it were only for half of the season.  As an analyst, I think it&#8217;s a terrible idea to give up even middling prospects for a rental.  These players typically provide more benefit in terms of cheap, reliable, roster-filler than any gained in a post-season run (especially since the teams who make these deals tend to flame out in the postseason).  As a fan, however, I want to win a pennant.  Or at least enjoy watching the best left-hander in baseball pitch for my team, even if it is just for half of the season.  Anyway, while we wait to find out where it is exactly Lee will be headed, here&#8217;s a rundown of the Twins&#8217; possible options:<em><br />
</em></p>
<ul>
<li>Roy Oswalt:  While there hasn&#8217;t been much in the way of trade rumors regarding Oswalt lately, there is little doubt the 33-year old is going to be moved.  The Astros are in a rebuilding phase whether they like it or not, and would love to get out from under his albatross of a contract.  Oswalt, for his part, would love to go to a contender.  And while he&#8217;s far-removed from his days as a 5+ win pitcher, Oswalt is in the midst of another fine season, posting a 3.08 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, and 3.39 K/BB ratio in innings.  Oswalt would provide a nice boost to the rotation, but whether the Twins acquire him depends upon how much salary the Astros are willing to eat.  Oswalt is owed $39.5 million over the next two years, and though the Twins have more money to spend than ever before, they&#8217;ve also got an estimated $155.75 million in payroll commitments through 2012, and that isn&#8217;t including all of the arbitration-eligible players.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Dan Haren:  Haren is likely the best choice of the three. Like Oswalt, he&#8217;s in the midst of another fine season, though unlike Oswalt, he actually has some experience pitching in the American League.  I doubt very much he would post the 6+ WAR seasons in Minnesota that he has with the Diamondbacks, but  3-WAR isn&#8217;t an unreasonable expectation.  His skill set is a particularly good fit for the Twins.  His (career) 7.69 K/9 rate would be second to Francisco Liriano as the best in the rotation.  He also induces a lot of ground balls, which fits well with the team&#8217;s defensive capabilities (the infield defense is very good, while the outfield defense stinks).  The 27 year-old is also locked up relatively cheaply through 2013, with an estimated $45.13 million left on his contract.  Unfortunately,this means the Diamondbacks will probably be asking for the moon (and they should), so it&#8217;s unlikely he will end up a Twin.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Nobody:  Of course, the Twins could always choose to stand pat at the deadline, which would obviously be a huge disappointment to the fans.  If they can&#8217;t find a suitable option to upgrade the rotation, this isn&#8217;t a bad idea.  It seems unbelievable given how terribly they have pitched as of late, but the starting rotation really isn&#8217;t that bad.   While their 4.43 ERA isn&#8217;t all that impressive, their peripherals suggest they are pitching better than that.  Their 4.02 xFIP leads the American League, while their 3.96 FIP is behind only the Red Sox and White Sox.  They don&#8217;t miss a ton of bats, with just a 6.53 K/9 rate, but not surprisingly, they don&#8217;t issue many free passes, either, with a league-leading 1.88 BB/9 rate.  They&#8217;ve been stung by the long ball a little bit, with a 10.1 HR/FB percentage, but not much more than league-average and it&#8217;s likely the result of having such a fly-ball heavy staff.  For what it&#8217;s worth, their .317 batting average on balls in play is right around league-average, though their 20.3 line drive percentage is awfully high, suggesting mediocre defense isn&#8217;t entirely to blame for their recent struggles.  Still, if the front office wants to gamble that things will eventually turn around on their own, it wouldn&#8217;t be a bad bet.</li>
</ul>
<p>If you think I missed someone, or if there is another starter you feel the Twins should target, please feel free to discuss it in the comments.</p>
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