Puckett's Pond » Rene Tosoni

Who should be the Twins’ September Call-Ups?

Tue, 14 Aug 2012 11:08:46 +0000

When you’re a fan of a team that’s hunting for a playoff spot, you look forward to October. When you’re a fan of a team that’s fighting to avoid the worst record in the American League, you look forward to September.

No, unfortunately, there isn’t a special September playoff series for bad teams. We look forward to September because that’s when Major League active rosters expand, thus allowing the Twins (and the other 29 MLB squads) to bring some of their prospects up to play in the Big Leagues. Contenders might be afraid to use too many young, untested players with so much on the line, but bad teams usually take this opportunity to audition some of their future stars.

Yesterday, Cody Christie wrote that Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia have played well enough at AA New Britain to earn a call-up next month. He also brought up an important point, that Hicks might be left behind, since he is not on the Twins’ 40 man roster. That inspired this writer to take a look at all of the players who areon the 40 man roster and think about which players we might see this fall.

Some caveats for this discussion. First, New Britain is likely to make it to the Eastern League playoffs, and AAA Rochester is just four games behind in the International League wild card race. If those teams make the playoffs, the Twins are not likely to call up their players until it’s over. Both leagues conclude regular season play in early September and then conduct two best-of-five series to determine a winner, so the playoffs could last until mid-September. Second, while my assessments are primarily based on player performance, the Twins could be thinking of other factors in making their call-up decisions, such as accumulation of service time or effect on player development. Finally, of the 14 players on the 40 man roster who aren’t currently with the Twins, two (Matt Capps and Anthony Swarzak) are injured Major Leaguers. That leaves us with 12 players to consider.

Pitchers

Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gutierrez, Pedro Hernandez, Liam Hendriks, Lester Oliveros, Kyle Waldrop

To be honest, there aren’t a lot of exciting names on this list.

Waldrop has logged four innings with the Twins so far in 2012, so it’s likely he’ll return in September at some point. It’s doubtful that any of the other relievers will come to Minnesota. Guerra looked like he had finally turned around his career early in this season, but since a promotion to AAA, he’s had an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Gutierrez has been sidelined since shoulder surgery in mid-July, so he’s not an option. Oliveros was pitching well at Rochester until late July, but he too had a run-in with a surgeon, and he’s out for the season.

As for the starters, Hendriks has been devastating to International League hitters, accumulating a 9-2 record and 1.99 ERA so far. He has not had nearly as much success in the Big Leagues this year, but given the hodge-podge nature of the Twins’ starting rotation, he’s probably going to get another shot in the Majors in September, if not before then. Last year he was with the Twins in September, and he earned a 6.17 ERA in four starts. Hernandez, the pitcher acquired in the Francisco Liriano trade, has made two starts for Rochester, one good and one not-so-good. Unless the Twins are worried about his workload for some reason, there’s probably no reason not to bring him up.

Infielders

Eduardo Escobar, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Chris Parmelee

Parmelee is almost 100% guaranteed to be back with the Twins in September. This summer, Parmelee seems to have dedicated himself to trying to make the people who sent him to the minors feel stupid. He has a .360/.471/.703 AAA slash line, which is even better than the .355/.443/.592 he hit for the Twins last September. The only thing that could prevent Parmelee from being a September call-up is if the Twins feel the need to bring him up before then.

Escobar, the other leg of the Liriano deal, is another likely September Twin. He was already playing in MLB for Chicago prior to the trade, albeit as a bench player.

Nishioka is a tougher call. If the fans made this call, it’s pretty obvious that Nishioka would not be back. And even from an objective point of view, it seems like he has burned the last bridge back to the Major Leagues. But the Twins are known for trying to squeeze every dime’s worth of value out of their players, so we cannot completely rule him out as a possibility.

Outfielders

Arcia, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni

My personal opinion is that Arcia will join the Twins as soon as New Britain’s postseason is done. I do not base this on any inside information or even strong logic; I just get the sense that his AA performance is too good to ignore. The Twins should let him have a few at bats against Major League pitching so that they have a better idea how soon he’ll be able to handle Minnesota’s right field spot.

Benson reached MLB last September, but his career has taken a big step back since. Assigned to AAA at the beginning of the year, Benson hit just .179 there, got demoted to AA, then broke his hand. He’s back from the injury, but he still hasn’t broken the Mendoza Line for New Britain. It’s hard to argue that Benson has earned a call-up this year or that facing MLB pitchers again would be good for his confidence.

Tosoni was never as highly-rates as Benson as a prospect, but his 2012 has been eerily similar: assigned to AAA, demoted, injured, and slumping. Unless the Twins develop a big need for outfield depth, he probably won’t return this year.

Chris Parmelee was the September hero for the Twins last year. Who will it be this year? Photo by Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

Twins: the Next Generation

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 11:08:19 +0000

What will the Twins look like in two or three years? We do not know for sure, but thanks to normal roster turnover, we can assume that many of the current players will be gone. Joe Mauer’s contract lasts for seven more seasons, but he is the only regular guaranteed to be here for the long haul. Francisco Liriano’s deal expires this year, as does Scott Baker’s (notwithstanding an option year for 2013). Justin Morneau may be gone after 2013, and several other players may leave if the team does not offer arbitration. And there is always the possibility that the Twins could trade a veteran away. In short, we are fast approaching the day that a new generation of Twins players takes over.

That new generation consists of Ben Revere, Rene Tosoni, Trevor Plouffe, Joe Benson, Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee, and Liam Hendriks. All of these players have either made their MLB debuts or are highly likely to do so this year. The good news is that given a little more time to develop, these players could form the young nucleus of a pretty decent team by 2013 or 2014.

That young core is strongest in the outfield. Benson is a five tool prospect who could be a very good hitter if he could cut down on the strikeouts a little bit. And his speed would combine very well with Revere’s in the outfield. Tosoni is not as gifted a fielder as the other two, but he has the potential to become a decent power-hitter at the plate. Plouffe and Parmelee have also gotten some work in the outfield, though their natural positions are elsewhere. In the infield, Dozier could be the first above average middle-infielder to come up through the Twins’ system since Jason Bartlett. And while Hendriks will never be a Cy Young winner, he has the potential to be more talented than most Twins “pitch to contact” guys.

Some people may read this and argue that it is too optimistic. After all, with the exception of Parmelee, none of the players has been particularly impressive at the Major League level. Plouffe, Tosoni, and Benson have MLB on-base percentages of .286, .275, and .270 respectively. Even Revere, who received some regular playing time in his rookie year, barely topped .300. On the mound, Hendriks got roughed up to the tune of a 6.17 ERA in four starts.

Don’t worry about that, though. Even the best MLB players rarely excel in their first stint in the Big Leagues. Yankee future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter hit just .250/.294/.375 in 1995. Kirby Puckett played a full year in 1984, and he did not hit a single home run. And now he has an awesome website named after him! It’s very reasonable to expect the next generation of Twins to improve this year and next. Who knows, one day you might be reading about the Twins on ParmeleesPond.com.

Back in the early 1980s, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti, Tom Brunansky, Frank Viola, and Greg Gagne were in much the same position as the players above are now. With the exception of Gagne, all had suffered through the dreadful 1982 season, the only year in which the Twins ever lost more games than they did in 2011. They did not necessarily look like winners at the time (Viola, for example, had a 5.21 ERA in ’82 and a 5.49 mark the next year), but they grew and learned from experience. By 1987, of course, they were champions. At that rate, we can expect the Twins to win it all again in 2016.

Some readers may have noticed a couple of names absent from this list. Levi Michael, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks, and Alex Wimmers are all promising minor leaguers, but they probably will not be ready to break into the big leagues for another couple seasons. Kyle Gibson almost certainly would have made this list if not for the injury that will deprive him of the chance to play in 2012.

This Week in Twins: March 19-25

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 19:12:36 +0000

It’s Monday again, and that means it is time for a Very Special Episode of This Week in Twins.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka looks like he is going to attack us with that bat. But that is not why he was cut today. Photo by Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Topping the news on this brand new week is the latest round of roster cuts. The list of cuts is dominated by one big name: Tsuyoshi Nishioka. As TWIT noted last Monday, Nishioka’s fielding was not quite up to snuff this spring. His hitting did not help, either, as he batted a subpar .240 in 25 Spring at bats. This is obviously a big setback for a player who generated so much excitement when he came to the Major Leagues last year, but it is the right move. Nishioka is a talented, athletic player who just needs to build confidence and work on his mechanics for awhile. I think a year at AAA is the right prescription for him, and I look forward to seeing what he learns by next spring.

Carlos Gutierrez, Rene Tosoni, Jason Bulger, Luis Perdomo, Daryl Thompson, Dan Rohlfing, Esmerling Vasquez, P.J. Walters, Chris Herrmann, Aaron Bates, and Wilkin Ramirez also got cut. Minnesota now has a leaner (meaner?) locker room, occupied by only 45 players. The non-roster invitee list, which Puckett’s Pond has been following very closely, is now down to 15 names.

The remaining Twins start their week with a game against the Red Sox today. Before the week is onver, they’ll also play the Orioles, Yankees, Rays, and Cardinals, and they’ll enjoy their only off-day of the Spring on Tuesday. But the highlight of the week will be Wednesday, when the Twins face off against the division-rival Tigers for the first and only time in 2012 Grapefruit League play.

Weekly Winners:

Twins Pitching. At first glance, it seems silly to congratulate the Twins’ pitchers when they allowed two blowout losses: an 8-2 stomping against Toronto and a 17-6 debacle against Pittsburgh. Dig a little deeper, though, and both of those were flukes. The Toronto game was marred by one bad inning from Francisco Liriano, who more than redeemed himself on Sunday. And the Pirates game just got off to a bad start, thanks to a 10 run first inning. Ignore those two games, and the Twins allowed just 11 runs in the other six games this week, culminating in yesterday’s one-hit gem. Also of note: Liam Hendriks silenced the Red Sox for three innings on Friday. The Australian prospect has not allowed a run in seven innings this spring.

Mike Hollimon. Hollimon has become a Puckett’s Pond favorite, and if he keeps up his hitting tear, he ought to become a Twins favorite as well. The infielder went 4-4 plus a walk on Saturday, and he ends the week with a stellar .533 batting average.

Weekly Weaklings:

Terry Doyle. The Twins’ Rule 5 pick just did not have it together in his start against the Pirates. It resulted in the aforementioned 10 run inning. The Twins obviously saw some potential in Doyle when they selected him, but his Grapefruit League performance makes it clear that he is not ready to stay on the Major League roster for a full season. Presumably, the reason the Twins have not cut him is that they are thinking about working out a trade with Chicago to keep him.

Jason Marquis. Marquis has been battered by opposing hitters so far, yielding 14 hits and seven walks in 8.2 innings. If we were to decide roster spots based on stats alone, we would have to axe Marquis and pencil in Hendriks at this point. But wait! If you look at Marquis’ history, it is perfectly normal for him to get knocked around in the spring. He has posted a spring ERA above 9.00 in two of his last three seasons, including 2009, when he had a 10.08 Spring ERA then went on to win 15 games with a 4.04 ERA at Coors Field in the regular season. Conversely, his ERA in the spring of 2006 was a dazzling 1.96; that year his regular season ERA ballooned to 6.02 for the Cardinals! In other words, when Marquis gives up a lot of hits and runs in Spring Training, it might actually be a good thing.