So let’s comb through that list and see who deserves a shot to pitch when the Twins have a little more to play for.

Diamond. The young lefty has been such a pleasant surprise that he deserves a post all to himself, and I promise that one will come out soon. For now, let’s just agree that Diamond has pitched his way onto the 2013 Opening Day roster. The only things that should prevent that are an injury or the discovery that he faked his identity (a la Leo Nunez and Fausto Carmona) to escape from Canada.

Scott Diamond (if that is his real name) is the only Twins' starter who has earned a job next year. Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn-US PRESSWIRE

Blackburn. Another pitcher who deserves his own post, Blackburn already got one. A couple weeks ago I opined that the Twins should cut ties with Blackburn, and I stand by that assertion. He has given the team some good years, but he is too young to be part of a rebuild and not a good enough pitcher to play for a contender. Of course, I don’t think for a second that the Twins actually will release him prior to 2013, but it’s still the right thing to do.

De Vries. Now we’re getting to the interesting pitchers. At first glance, DeVries appears to be a Diamond-like revelation. Like Diamond, the Minnesota native went undrafted out of college, but he clawed his way through the minors and broke into MLB at age 27. He has a 3.81 ERA and five quality starts. And he is actually a better strikeout pitcher than anyone else in the rotation – his 6.3 K/9 is tops on the Twins. But he has also given up an alarming number of home runs: 13 in 59 innings pitched. If he can find a way to cut down the longballs, he deserves a chance to compete for a spot next year. But that might be a big “if.”

Hendriks. Nothing has gone right for Hendriks in the Major Leagues this year, least of all the fact that opponents keep crushing his pitches. He’s 0-5 with a 7.04 ERA and 10 homers allowed in eight starts. But he’s also only 23, which means we have every reason to expect him to get better next year (if you don’t believe me, just look at how much better 24 year old Ben Revere is this year than his age 23 season). The even better news is that Hendriks has shut down minor league hitters at every level. At AAA this year he’s 8-2 with a dazzling 2.14 ERA and a respectable 7.0 K/9. Hendriks will eventually be a competent MLB starting pitcher, it’s just a question of when. He deserves a long look in Spring Training for 2013.

Duensing. Duensing is a Major League pitcher, but does he belong in the bullpen or the starting rotation? A certain internet writer argued a few months ago that Duensing would best serve the Twins as a starter, noting that he had pitched quite well in that role in 2009 and 2010. But his starting record has been spotty in 2012; opponents have put up a .345/.369/.549 line when he starts, compared to .238/.298/.306 when he relieves. And with Glen Perkins likely to be the Twins’ closer in 2013, the team will probably Duensing’s left arm to be available in the bullpen. Thus, unless the Twins somehow find another lefty capable of pitching in the late innings, Duensing should not be in the mix for a starting spot next year.

Walters. Thanks to an offseason spent scrounging for minor league free agents, the Twins have a surplus of 27 and 28 year olds who have had some success in the minors but have never been able to put it together in MLB. Walters is one of them. Before hitting the Disabled List with a shoulder injury, Walters put together a few surprisingly good starts, but he got knocked around in others. He’s a flyball pitcher who has always had homer trouble, and his control has never been as impeccable as the Twins like to see. He put up a 5.40 ERA and a 5.62 FIP in his seven start audition this year. That should be enough data for the Twins not to bring him back in 2013.

Deduno. Deduno is fun to watch, mostly because even he seems to have no idea where his pitches will end up. Through six starts, Deduno is 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA, but it’s hard to tell if that statline is completely the result of luck or if it’s because Deduno is a pitcher like none ever seen before on Earth, one whose “crazy” fastball is as confusing as his curveball is nasty. He also has a slider, but it’s nowhere near as interesting as the other two pitches. It’s difficult to see how Deduno could keep up a sub-4.00 ERA for long, though, since he has actually walked more batters (25) than he has struck out (22). At age 28, it’s difficult to believe that he’ll somehow learn to improve his control, but if he could, his two pitch combo would make him an excellent bullpen candidate. As it is, though, Deduno is a long-shot to wear a Twins uniform next April.

Swarzak. Like Duensing, Swarzak is a pitcher who does not fit neatly into the bullpen or the starting rotation. In a way, he’s like the Nick Punto of pitchers, a utility man who can help the team not by dominating the opposition, but by being available to do the bare minimum needed in any situation. Or if you’re a Vikings fan who remembers the 1990s, Swarzak the baseball version of Leroy Hoard, who once said: Coach, if you need one yard, I’ll get you three yards. If you need five yards, I’ll get you three yards.” Swarzak won’t strike out many batters, but you can count on him to post an ERA between 4.00 and 5.00 and eat some valuable innings. His best role is in long relief with the occasional emergency start.

Baker. The Twins can keep Baker around if they’re willing to pick up his $9 million option, but they’re more likely to decline it and try to sign him to a cheaper one-year deal. If he’s healthy by next spring, he deserves a chance to win a job based on his past production.

Gibson. Like Baker, Gibson had Tommy John surgery, but his surgery occurred last year, which means he’ll definitely be healthy by Spring Training. How effective he’ll be is, of course, another story. Gibson was a solid, but not awe-inspiring, prospect before he got hurt, and most people seem to think he could be a decent #3 starter one day.

To sum it up: Diamond is the only one who deserves a guaranteed job next year. Four others could be starters for the 2013 Twins. Baker and Gibson should start as long as they are healthy and effective. DeVries and Hendriks are long-shots, but they deserve a chance to at least compete for a back-of-the-rotation job. Five pitchers competing for five jobs seems like a perfect fit, but in reality it probably won’t work out that way. At least one or two will likely have health problems or fail to impress in the spring. And even if all five are healthy, none of them is exactly an awe-inspiring presence near the top of a rotation. Thus, the Twins should try to bring in at least one, and preferably two, pitchers via trade or free agency.

Who those others should be will be the subject of a future post.

That guy sure looks familiar, doesn't he? Photo by Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

The Matchups:

Tuesday, June 12, 7:10 p.m. CDT: RHP Nick Blackburn vs. RHP Kyle Kendrick

Wednesday, June 13, 7:10 p.m. CDT: RHP P.J. Walters vs. LHP Cole Hamels

Thursday, June 14, 7:10 p.m. CDT: LHP Scott Diamond vs. RHP Joe Blanton

Yikes! Nick Blackburn has a 43.20 ERA in his career versus Philadelphia. To be fair, he earned that hideous number in just one start back in 2010. Blackburn recorded five outs and allowed eight runs that day. Walters has never faced the Phillies, and neither has the rookie Diamond.

Kendrick has never pitched against the Twins, but he has faced Josh Willingham 15 times. Willingham has a solid .364/.400/.727 line off him with a home run. Hamels has seven career innings against the Twins, and he allowed three earned runs. Willingham is also the Twin with the most experience against Hamels – he has a .905 OPS in 30 PAs. Blanton has actually pitched againt the Twins quite a bit, since he was on the Athletics until 2008. He has a 4-4 record and a 4.45 ERA.

The Head-to-Head:

This rivalry did not exist until 2002, and the Twins and Phils have only played nine games against each other. The Twins have  a slim 5-4 advantage. The Twins took the last series in 2010 thanks in part to a key Drew Butera home run. The last time the Phillies visited Minnesota, the Phils won two out of three. Carlos Silva won the only game for the Twins. Aaron Fultz and Terry Mulholland took the losses.

The Story:

Four series wins in a row, and the Twins suddenly find themselves on the cusp of looking respectable. They’re within 8.5 of the division leader, and the starting rotation does not look nearly as bad as it did in April. Diamond in particular has been a welcome addition – whenever he is on the mound, one gets the impression that the Twins have a good chance to win the game. Still, this team has a long way to go before they start turning any heads. Minnesota is still last in the AL in runs allowed (312) and third from last in runs scored (245). Any baseball expert will tell you that its hard to when games when you give up way more runs than you score.

Is the Twins’ winning June a sign that they’ve finally managed to duct tape a winning team together? Or is it a mirage created by facing awful competition? The Phillies might provide an answer.

Philadelphia is certianly not an awful team. They still have the same core of players that won a pair of NL titles within the last four years, and their slightly under .500 record is probably due in large part to being in the cutthroat NL East division. The Twins are lucky to face the Phillies while All-World ace Roy Halladay is on the Disabled List. The Philadelphia rotation is probably the best in baseball when he’s healthy. But with Halladay gone, the Phils are struggling badly. They come into this series having lost eight of their last nine games, and they find themselves almost as far out of first place (8.0 games) as the Twins are.

But no self-respecting Twins fan cares about the Phillies’ place in the standings. We’re all going to watch because of one reason: Jim Thome. He only spent a year and a half with our team, but in that time he became one of the favorite baseball players for almost every Minnesotan. This will not be Thome’s first return visit to Minnesota; if you were still watching Twins games last September, you may recall he hit a ninth inning home run off Joe Nathan on September 16th for the Indians. Still, Thome is sure to receive a resounding round of applause and several standing ovations.

We really like the guy, is what I’m trying to say.

The Other Side:

We all know Jim Thome, but what about the other Phillies? For some answers, we turn to Ethan Seidel of That Ball’s Outta Here, the greatest Phillies website in the world. Here are the Pond’s three questions and Ethan’s answers:

1. How much does it hurt to lose Roy Halladay? Do you think he’ll be back in time to help the Phillies make a run at the NL East title again?

The loss of Roy Halladay has been demoralizing to the team and the fans. Without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, the rotation had to be nothing less than perfect. But, now without Halladay for up to two months and Cliff Lee has yet to record a W this year things are not looking good for the Phils. Doc is a hard worker, and will come back as fast as humanly possible. He should be back on the mound around the trade deadline, but that looks to be too little too late for the team to make a run.

2. Cole Hamels is putting up some of the best numbers of his career in his contract year. Do you think he’ll stay with Philadelphia or bolt via free agency? Where does Hamels fit in a rotation that already contains Halladay, Cliff Lee, and young phenom Vance Worley?

There is no doubt that Cole Hamels is having his best year in a Phillies uniform. Coincidentally or not, it is helping his value ten fold as there really isn’t any pitcher in the 2013 free agent class who’s comparable. Despite having Halladay and Lee locked up for big bucks for a few more years, Hamels still has a place in the rotation. He is the youngest of the group at 28, so a long term investment makes a lot of sense. I still believe he will wind up with the Phillies, because he is too valuable to this franchise. If Hamels does sign with the Dodgers or Yankees, expect to see an angry mob outside Citizens Bank Park calling for Ruben Amaro’s head.

The 8 games out of first place is less daunting than having to leap frog 4 teams in front of them. With the added wild card the Phillies will still be in “contention” around the deadline. Whether they decide to buy or sell could be a major turning point for this team for years to come. They have very few prospects left in the coffers left to deal, but Dominic Brown could be dealt for MLB ready bat. Looking at the Twins roster, i would say Josh Willingham would be a nice fit. Given the state of the bullpen veteran reliever Matt Caps could be an attractive name as well. Trading what little they have left from the farm may not be enough to put them over top like years past. If the Twins do become sellers, i wouldn’t bet on the Phillies to come knocking.

The Bottom Line:
Two weeks ago, this prediction would have sounded like utter insanity, but Puckett’s Pond predicts that the Twins will win this series. Minnesota should take one of the first two (possibly with the help of some late-inning clutch hitting) and Diamond will shut down the competition on Thursday.

Tonight Alfonso Soriano and the Cubs make their way to Target Field. Photo by Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE

The Matchups:

Friday, June 8, 7:10 p.m. CDT: RHP P.J. Walters vs. LHP Travis Wood

Saturday, June 9, 1:10 p.m. CDT: LHP Scott Diamond vs. RHP Jeff Samardzija

Sunday, June 10, 1:10 p.m. CDT: LHP Francisco Liriano vs. RHP Ryan Dempster

Walters has faced the Cubs on four occasions, thanks to his days with the Cardinals, but thanks to roster turnover, only three current Cubs have faced him. Among them is Alfonso Soriano, whom Walters has struck out five times in five at bats. Diamond has never faced the Cubs. Surprisingly, neither has Liriano, despite being on the Twins’ roster the last two times these teams played each other.

The Cubs’ pitchers will be a complete mystery to the Twins. Wood and Samardzija have thrown a combined zero pitches against Minnesota. Dempster has faced them twice, and the Twins knocked him around for a total of 11 runs in five innings. But the last time he saw the Twins was back in 2006, so the only current Minnesota hitters he’s faced are Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll, and Ryan Doumit. Doumit is a weak .174/.240/.174 in 25 plate appearances.

The Head to Head:

This is the first meeting between the Twins and Cubs since 2009, and it’s the first visit by the Cubs to Minnesota since 2006. The streak probably does not mean much, given the long time between matchups, but the Twins have won five of the last six in this series. Overall, though, the Cubs have a very slight edge, having won 11 of the 21 games since they first met in interleague play back in 1997.

The Weather:

We’ll have some warm weather this weekend. Like a typical Twins’ fastball, temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will scrape the low 90s, which might make the day games a little uncomfortable.

The Story:

With seven wins in nine games, the Twins are in their first hot streak of the season. They swept the Athletics and then went on to win series against the Indians and Royals. After six starts, Diamond continues to impress. He now holds a 1.86 ERA and a 4-1 record. As strange as it may seem, Liriano is starting to rival Diamond as the team’s most consistent starter. Since returning to the rotation, he has allowed just one run in 12 innings with 17 strikeouts. It’s difficult to tell if Liriano really has improved as a pitcher or if his success owes more to the awful lineups fielded by the Athletics and Royals.

The Cubs might not prove much more of a test than those lightweights. Their hitters have accumulated just a .244/.303/.380 line (the OBP and SLG totals are both 14th in the National League). Chicago is not a great pitching club, either. Their 4.24 ER A is also 14th in their league. If not for the fact that the Cubs frequently pitch to opposing pitchers, their team ERA might rival the Twins’ 5.02 mark.

The good news for the Twins is that the aforementioned ERA is no longer worst in baseball. Colorado (5.10) recently passed them up. The Twins’ bullpen has been downright decent with an 8-6 record and a 3.44 ERA. The starters are still 14-28, and worst in baseball with a 6.06 ERA.

The Bottom Line:

The Cubs are an opponent the Twins can handle. Look for the Twins to win this series, and a sweep is not out of the question if Liriano can keep up his solid pitching.