Puckett's Pond » Oswaldo Arcia

Big Statisticles: Batters Up

Brian Johnson — Fri, 17 May 2013 15:43:59 +0000

It’s been a while since I’ve been to the pond, and I’m sorry for that. It’s been even longer since Big Statisticles has made an appearance, and I’m even sorrier for that. I’m back on the wagon though and vow to bring more fantasy baseball to you beautiful Twins fans. You will have to bear with me and stomach some analysis of AL Central foes, but if you’re chasing that virtual fantasy trophy, hopefully the following can be of some use to you. I’m on a bit of a hot streak to start the season, so take a look at some players worth grabbing as we head into waiver weekend.

OF Dayan Viciedo, CHW (31.2% owned)

Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

An alumnus of the Birmingham Barons, Viciedo is a player whose ownership percentage would be in the 90’s if not for sustaining an injury only two weeks into the season just as he was heating up. Now over a week removed from the DL, the man they call “The Tank” in Chicago, has reached safely in five of his last seven games while swatting two HR and tallying six RBI. To the casual eye, his line of .288/.329/.530 is appealing, but his real value to the White Sox thus far is reflected in his wRC+ (124) and wOBA (.346); both of which are just a tier below what is produced by the game’s elite. You just can’t find greater power potential (with proven ability to hit for modest average [.283 minors] / [.264 majors]) on the wire right now. When healthy, this Cuban import packs the power of a laced Cohiba, and I’d set his floor for the remainder of the season at 20 HR.

SS Didi Gregorius, ARZ (33.1%)
With his.407 AVG through April 26, Didi was set to become the bee’s knees, but a short trip to the DL calmed the excitement around the 23-year old rookie. He has since returned and is now hitting second for the surging D-Backs. Although his AVG should drop near his career mark (minors) of .267; Arizona believes they have an everyday player that is ready to contribute now. Didi doesn’t provide much power but has decent speed, and his stellar play in the field has secured him the job at shortstop. I’m not convinced he can remain fantasy-relevant this season, but at this point, he’s worth a flier if you need a change at middle infield.

1B Chris Carter, HOU (23.6%)
I can’t confirm that it’s true, but Chris Carter is definitely the spawn of Pedro Cerrano. Both are always a threat to go deep when they step in the box, but more often than not, the pitcher prevails and another K is hung from the rafters. For the non-Major League fans (heaven help you), it’s quite simple. Carter’s astronomical 25.4% HR/FB and .275 ISO coupled with his ghastly career 34.1 K% and .215 AVG make him the ultimate boom or bust candidate. His HR power is very real but it will come at a major cost to your team’s AVG. It’s going to be a roller coaster ride all season for Chris in terms of add/drops, but he’s on pace for 35 HR and that’s nothing to scoff at. So if you’re willing to punt AVG at any point, you better lock this guy up for the long haul.

OF Oswaldo Arcia, MIN (15.0%)

Apr 23, 2013; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins designated hitter Oswaldo Arcia (31) hits a three run home run in the fourth inning against the Miami Marlins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The legend of Oswaldo Arcia began during a B-game in spring training last year, when the then-20-year old, who was on nobody’s radar (much less the Twins’), launched a 450-foot homer to the opposite field in left. The blast looked like it came off the bat of Mark McGwire (yes, the juiced version), and Minnesota’s GM, Terry Ryan, immediately knew he had something special on his hands. The internal organizational buzz only continued to build as Arcia went on to post a line of .320/.388/.539 (with 17 HR and 98 RBI) between High-A and Double-A ball in 2012.

This past March, Arcia came to Ft. Myers ranked as Baseball Prospectus’ 60th overall prospect, and it was believed he had a good shot to break camp with the big club, but an intercostal strain dampened those plans. It didn’t take long to slug his way out of Triple-A Rochester and make it to the show though. After only 10 games, he was hitting .394/.474/.727 and had 3 HR and 8 RBI to his name. Since the rocky start following his promotion on April 15, it appears Arcia has successfully transferred his skill-set to the pros (.340/.354/.532 in May) and he has been getting regular AB between right-field and DH. Even though he has cooled a little in the last week, I believe his short-lived days of riding the bus in the minors are over. This could be a very sneaky power play as the 22-year old inches his way towards the heart of the Twins’ order.

Rocking Target Field and Twins Notes

Chris Holm — Thu, 16 May 2013 10:00:38 +0000

Photo by Ryan Siverson Photography – rysiphoto.com

It was an honor again for my band, The 4onthefloor, to play Target Field during a Twins game, this year as the inaugural band of the brand new Midwest Music Showcase series. We had a fantastic time again – the Twins treat us great and it’s an amazing experience especially for a lifelong die hard Twins fan like myself. Unfortunately we’re now 0 for 2 on rocking the Twins on to victory so they might not ever ask us back again. Click the photo above for more photos taken by my good friend, Ryan Siverson (rysiphoto.com).

As for the actual game, The Twins took an early lead but left four runners on in the first two innings. After that The White Sox’s bats got hot and they pounded Twins pitching for 9 runs and 3 home runs over the final seven innings. As is increasingly becoming the case, and as most of us expected coming into the season, the starting pitching was poor. Mike Pelphrey just isn’t fooling anyone and the Sox were hitting rockets all over the field off him. More concerning is that the bullpen, which had been stellar until the past week or so, again struggled. The White Sox are not a good team and have been terrible offensively, but right now, Twins pitching is even worse. Offensively the Twins left too many guys on base early or this game could have had a different complexion. Mauer and Morneau continue to be hot and Eduardo Escobar homered but mostly the bottom third of the order didn’t do much.

Some notes:

Joe Mauer had three more hits including another double. He’s climbed back up to 4th in the AL in batting average and is now third in the AL with 16 doubles, 11 of which have come during his current 14 game hitting streak. He also struck out again, stretching his streak to 14 consecutive games with a strikeout. A thought popped into my head that maybe the reason he’s hitting more doubles and striking out more often is that he’s swinging harder this year. I have no idea if this might be the case. I wonder if anyone has asked him. His strikeouts don’t bother me at all – he’s still putting up monster number other than home runs.

The Twins rotation is as bad as we expected. Correia thus far has greatly exceeded my expectations. But Worley has been much worse than expected and Pelphrey has been almost as bad. I don’t expect Correia to continue to pitch as well as he has, and I want to think Worley should be better though he hasn’t shown anything so far. Pelphrey probably should be dropped from the rotation but right now there’s nobody demanding his spot. Kyle Gibson has been inconsistent, Cole Devries is coming back from injury and struggling in the minors, Liam Hendriks has struggled at AAA and is now hurt, Sam Deduno, PJ Walters, and Andrew Albers have pitched pretty well at AAA but are not on the 40 man roster, and Alex Meyer and Trevor May aren’t ready for the big leagues yet. It’s hard to imagine anyone besides Scott Diamond on this staff posting league average stats or 180+ innings. We’ll probably end up seeing as many as ten different guys get five or more starts this year.

Josh Willingham isn’t doing much for his trade value right now. His overall numbers aside from his batting average aren’t bad, but he just doesn’t look very good lately. The Twins have too many RF/1B/DH types and eventually they will need to clear some space. Willingham seems like the most likely guy to bring something of quality back in return but he needs to hit.

Oswaldo Arcia looks like a guy going through a little bit of a rookie readjustment period. It’s just a few games but he hasn’t looked as in control at the plate lately. I’m not worried. I still think he’ll win AL Rookie of the Year.

I didn’t get to really focus a great deal on the game today so those are my few thoughts for now.

The Future is Blinding

Chris Holm — Thu, 02 May 2013 11:00:06 +0000

Don’t look now, but The Twins’ two class A affiliates are a combined 39-10 on the season. As if that weren’t enough to spark flames of enthusiasm toward 2016 and beyond, they’ve also played much of the early part of the season without some of their top prospects. Levi Michael just rejoined Fort Myers, while J.O. Berrios just rejoined Cedar Rapids who is still missing Max Kepler. And top prospects Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, both already considered two to of the top prospects in baseball are far outperforming expectations thus far. Sano is leading the minor leagues in home runs and playing better than expected defense at third base and Buxton has reached base by hit or walk in every game and looking every bit a 5-tool talent, reminding people around Cedar Rapids of Mike Trout at the same stage of his career. Eddie Rosario continues to hit and is actually the top ranked defensive second baseman in the FSL, which was supposed to be a question for him. And best of all, these three are all very young for the level they are playing. Adam Walker is leading the Midwest League in homeruns and looks like a guy with as much power as anyone not named Sano. Other top prospects, Travis Harrison, Jorge Polanco, and Nico Goodrum at Cedar Rapids are also playing well. And if we look beyond class A, we’re seeing a couple young cornerstones starting to make their mark at the Major League level in Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia. Assuming at least some of this stockpile of talent pans out, the Twins look to be an offensive powerhouse in the not so distant future.

Pitching remains the big question mark for the future of this franchise in the next ten years. The Twins have yet to really see what they got out of their run on high velocity college relievers (some of whom are being converted to starters) from last year’s draft. New pickups, Alex Meyer has been impressive and Trevor May has shown signs at AA. Kyle Gibson has been inconsistent but has shown flashes of dominance at AAA. Berrios may be the crown jewel pitcher in the system but is very young still. With significantly less pitching depth in the minors, the Twins will need to do a good job of developing the talent they do have or go back to the free agency / trade / draft wells to continue to restock what had been a very bare pitching cupboard. Still it’s hard to imagine this current group not improving the Twins’ pitching significantly.

Sano, Buxton, and Arcia look like future stars. Rosario looks like a guy who’s going to hit. If he can stick at second base, he could be an All Star. Berrios and Meyer could develop into front of rotation starting pitchers. Hicks should be a solid Major League outfielder with good on base skills and decent power/speed combination. At the very least it’s going to be an exciting couple of years watching these guys develop and hoping for another class of guys to lead a franchise resurgence like the early 80′s and early 2000′s groups did. This group probably has more raw talent than both those groups.

So how long until we start seeing these guys? Here’s my predictions for a few:

2013 – Gibson (June), Meyer, May (September)

2014 – Rosario, Sano (September)

2015 – Buxton (June), Berrios (September)

2016 – Kepler