May 13, 2013; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Aaron Hicks (32) raises his helmet to the fans after hitting his second home run of the day in the sixth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Note:  This was written prior to Tuesday’s game, when Aaron Hicks went 0-5 with 3 K’s and just generally tried to make this article look stupid/foolish.  However, I still stand by my opinion on the subject, but the stats are slightly off as a result.  My apologies, I was at a talent show last night.  Aaron Hicks did not perform.  ~Brad

On May 13, 2013, Aaron Hicks had his breakout game.  He slugged two home runs and robbed another home run from Adam Dunn.  It seemed like this was the date when Hicks would start to turn the corner and become the hitter that many think he will become.  Prior to and including that game, you could make a serious argument that Hicks was turning things around.  He had gone 8 for 38 in 9 May games, for an average of .210.  While that number is hardly impressive, it is certainly better than the roughly .100 average he had produced to that point.

Since that game, Hicks is only 2 for 21 and has just one walk.  He is basically back to hitting around .100 and many are starting to call for changes.  Perhaps Hicks needs some time at AAA.  Perhaps he needs a few days off.  I can see these as rational considerations, and I might even act on them at this point.  I always felt that Hicks should be given two months at minimum, and then be evaluated on his overall performance.  We’ve reached nearly two months and if Hicks is sent down in the next few days, it will be a disappointing, but understandable decision.

If you’ll indulge me, I’d like to break Hicks’s season into four quadrants:

• Quadrant 1 – Tons of strikeouts, no contact
• Quadrant 2 – Fewer strikeouts, still no contact, increased walks
• Quadrant 3 – More contact, more power, more strikeouts, fewer walks
• Quadrant 4 – Even more contact, no power, few strikeouts, few walks, sparse hits

Thanks.

This is a rather informal exercise, but it does show that Hicks has not put all of his tools together at any point this season (save for that amazing game on May 13).  When Hicks was drawing a lot of walks, he wasn’t making any contact.  When he started making contact, his strikeouts ticked up and his walks ticked down.  When he took care of the strikeouts, he started making more contact, but most of the contact resulted in outs.  This is where Hicks is right now.  He’s making contact, but nearly all of the contact results in an out.

Isn’t that an improvement though?  The biggest issue I had with Hicks early in the season was the strikeout totals.  He struck out 26 times in April, but only 11 times so far in May.  That is an improvement from a 31.3% strikeout rate in April to 18.6% in May.  League average has been 19.4% this season.  Hicks has always had high strikeout totals, so this performance should not be extremely surprising.  In fact, if Hicks can keep his rate around league average for the rest of the season, I would consider that a huge step forward in his development.

To be fair, Hicks’s walk rate has decreased in May.  He posted a 13.3% walk rate in April, but is only at 8.5% in May.   However, both months are above the league average of 8.3%.  Basically, Hicks has been at about league average in both walk and strikeout rate this month.  These numbers are extremely important to remember, as Hicks is a 23-year-old rookie, with no experience above AA prior to this season.

Contact has been Hicks’s biggest issue.  Early on, he wasn’t making contact.  Now, he is making contact, but all his contact results in outs.  I am encouraged by the increased contact.  His batting average on balls in play is .174, where league average is .296.  Part of the reason why Hicks has such a low BABIP does stem from the type of contact he is making.  In April, he had a line drive rate of 11.1%  In May, it’s up to 16.7%.  League average is 20.4%, so Hicks has some room to improve.  However, the increase in his line drive rate is another encouraging factor.

Hicks has improved in May by just about any offensive statistic you can use.  While his improvement might not be monumental (and aided a bit by one crazy, breakout game), it is hard not to be encouraged by his improvement the last few weeks.  For some, he has not improved enough and needs to be sent to AAA for more seasoning.  If that happens, I’d understand the decision.  I don’t know that I would agree with it though.  The reality is that Hicks needs to learn how to hit MLB pitching, and going to AAA will not really help him do that.

Personally, I’d stick with Hicks for a few more weeks.  I know that fans are frustrated, but sending a player to the Minors as a punishment for poor performance does nothing for me.  If there was a young, promising player at AAA (say, Joe Benson) who was ready to come up and give the Twins an idea of who they are as a player, then I’d support a demotion for Hicks.  Since the two options seem to be Clete Thomas and Antoan Richardson, I’d flat out prefer to watch Aaron Hicks struggle and continue to adjust.

I can’t help how I feel, but how do you feel? Do you think Aaron Hicks needs time at AAA?  Who would you play in center in his place?  Please respond in the comments below.

March 7, 2013; Clearwater, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Kyle Gibson (32) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Bright House Networks Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Taylor the Prospect Octopus would like me to embed more tweets into these posts.  Not only does a tweet convey great information from an expert, Taylor feels that an embedded tweet is a tacit endorsement of the original Tweeter and that you should follow said Tweeter if we include them in the post.  I agree.  I also applaud Taylor’s use of the word “tacitly,” even if it was used in a run-on sentence.  So, we’re going to add more tweets and you should add these Tweeters to your feeds.  They all supply great prospect information.  On to the players!

Rochester Red Wings

Kyle Gibson was magnificent on Sunday, pitching a complete game shutout and taking a no hitter into the 8th inning.  Gibson gave up only three hits and two walks, while recording eight strikeouts.  Gibson has now thrown 52.2 innings this season, striking out 46 while walking only 14.  The Twins want Gibson to be more consistent, but I’m not sure what he has left to prove at AAA.  If the Twins have Gibson on a 130 inning limit, he may only have 12-15 starts left in his arm this season.  If that is the case, the Twins are running out of time to see what he can do against MLB hitting.  When you add the ineffectiveness of Pedro Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey, there is no reason to keep Gibson in Rochester much longer.

Another player trying to force his way to Minnesota is Chris Colabello.  Colabello went 4-5 on Sunday, with his 16th and 17th double.  More interesting is this fact:

Twins had Chris Colabello play RF for the second time today in Triple-A. Four more hits and he’s now second in the IL in OPS.

— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) May 19, 2013

Colabello getting reps in right is significant.  Not only is Aaron Hicks still not performing, but Chris Parmelee and Oswaldo Arcia are slumping as well.  If the Twins need an outfielder, Colabello might get the call.  The 29-year-old independent ball veteran certainly seems to be earning it.

New Britain Rock Cats

Daniel Ortiz went 2-4 on Sunday, raising his average to .299.  Ortiz has hit well in the past, approaching .300 in a couple different Minor League seasons.  The significant advancement thus far has been development of some power.  Ortiz currently has a slugging percentage just shy of .500, which is certainly his best showing in full-season ball.  Antoan Richardson was recently called up to Rochester.  If they end up needing another OF, Ortiz might get the next call.

Michael Tonkin has had an interesting season so far.  In 18.2 innings, he hasn’t given up a home run, but his walk rate is up from last season and the strikeouts he added in 2012 have dipped as well.  However, Tonkin still has only pitched about 50 innings above Low-A.  His results have been pretty good, as his ERA sits just below three.  If he keeps working on his command, he could see his walks decrease which would make his strikeout rate dip a little less significant.

Fort Myers Miracle

Just to remind everyone, Miguel Sano is really good:

I think he’s ready for the Double-A challenge. RT @mrnypenn @professorparks When should he be considered ready for AA? (Sano)

— Jason Parks (@ProfessorParks) May 18, 2013

 Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus is not a guy who calls for promotions prematurely.  Often when fans ask about their favorite prospect moving up a level, he’ll respond with something along the lines of “what’s the rush?”  However, Parks, much like many Twins fans, recognizes that Sano is special.  He’s going to get to Minnesota at a very young age.  The jump to AA is a big one, but Sano has little left to prove in A ball, and might reach AA before the draft in early June.

AFL hero Nate Roberts returned this week, playing his first game of the 2013 season.  Unfortunately:

According to @zimmiracle (Via @jeremynygaard), Nate Roberts is back on the DL due to inflammation in his knee.

— Seth Stohs (@SethTweets) May 16, 2013

Roberts is 24, has now played just one game above low A and seems to be a little bit injury prone.  He hasn’t played more than 76 games in a season.  However, he is an extremely intriguing player, as he has a career .438 OBP in 180 games.  The man can take a walk.  That kind of plate discipline makes you wish that he could stay healthy and move up the ladder at a reasonable rate.  Hopefully, he comes back from this injury, has a huge month in Fort Myers, and heads to New Britain.  Otherwise, he’s a 25-year-old with no AA experience going into 2014.

Cedar Rapids Kernels

John Sickels of SB Nation profiled some Twins prospects this week.  Here is a tweet with a link to a couple:

Prospect Notes: Niko Goodrum, Jorge Polanco, two more from loaded Cedar Rapids Kernels roster minorleagueball.com/2013/5/15/4334…

— johnsickels (@MinorLeagueBall) May 15, 2013

Niko Goodrum is a pet prospect of mine.  Everything I read about him and every video clip I watch makes me like him more and more.  Goodrum is a great example of not scouting box scores.  He hasn’t really performed all that well, but when you read about his projected power and his crazy strong arm, you can’t help but think of what he can become.  It will be very exciting to watch as he develops as a player and as a man.  One development that I have noticed from box scores this season is what seems to be continued improvement in his plate discipline.  He has a .390 OBP and has taken 25 walks in 38 games.  Not bad for his first season in A ball.

Tyler Duffey doesn’t walk anyone.  He’s only surrendered four free passes in 49.1 innings this season.  Limiting baserunners via walk is going to help any pitcher.  Whether or not he can maintain an elite walk rate throughout his development will certainly tell the story of his success.  Duffey clearly can handle low A hitters, but more advanced hitters will be more patient and exploit mistakes.  It’s exciting to see Duffey have such success, but he has a long way to go.

Yet to Debut

As if the Twins prospect cup weren’t overflowing enough, Luke Bard, Max Kepler and J.T. Chargois, all top 20 prospects, have not made their debut this season.  I’m most excited for Kepler, as he had a breakout last season and is a physical kid with big tools.  Each of these players are worth remembering, and Taylor and I will make sure you are aware when they finally debut.

That’s all we have this week.  If you have a Twins prospect who you would like profiled in the future, send a tweet to @bridman77 with the #prospectoctopus.  We’ll make sure that you get a good profile.

OF Dayan Viciedo, CHW (31.2% owned)

Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

SS Didi Gregorius, ARZ (33.1%)
With his.407 AVG through April 26, Didi was set to become the bee’s knees, but a short trip to the DL calmed the excitement around the 23-year old rookie. He has since returned and is now hitting second for the surging D-Backs. Although his AVG should drop near his career mark (minors) of .267; Arizona believes they have an everyday player that is ready to contribute now. Didi doesn’t provide much power but has decent speed, and his stellar play in the field has secured him the job at shortstop. I’m not convinced he can remain fantasy-relevant this season, but at this point, he’s worth a flier if you need a change at middle infield.

1B Chris Carter, HOU (23.6%)
I can’t confirm that it’s true, but Chris Carter is definitely the spawn of Pedro Cerrano. Both are always a threat to go deep when they step in the box, but more often than not, the pitcher prevails and another K is hung from the rafters. For the non-Major League fans (heaven help you), it’s quite simple. Carter’s astronomical 25.4% HR/FB and .275 ISO coupled with his ghastly career 34.1 K% and .215 AVG make him the ultimate boom or bust candidate. His HR power is very real but it will come at a major cost to your team’s AVG. It’s going to be a roller coaster ride all season for Chris in terms of add/drops, but he’s on pace for 35 HR and that’s nothing to scoff at. So if you’re willing to punt AVG at any point, you better lock this guy up for the long haul.

OF Oswaldo Arcia, MIN (15.0%)

Apr 23, 2013; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins designated hitter Oswaldo Arcia (31) hits a three run home run in the fourth inning against the Miami Marlins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

This past March, Arcia came to Ft. Myers ranked as Baseball Prospectus’ 60th overall prospect, and it was believed he had a good shot to break camp with the big club, but an intercostal strain dampened those plans. It didn’t take long to slug his way out of Triple-A Rochester and make it to the show though. After only 10 games, he was hitting .394/.474/.727 and had 3 HR and 8 RBI to his name. Since the rocky start following his promotion on April 15, it appears Arcia has successfully transferred his skill-set to the pros (.340/.354/.532 in May) and he has been getting regular AB between right-field and DH. Even though he has cooled a little in the last week, I believe his short-lived days of riding the bus in the minors are over. This could be a very sneaky power play as the 22-year old inches his way towards the heart of the Twins’ order.