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	<title>Puckett&#039;s Pond &#187; Matt Tolbert</title>
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	<description>A Minnesota Twins Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More</description>
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		<title>2012 Projections &#8211; Ryan Doumit</title>
		<link>http://puckettspond.com/2012/03/05/2012-projections-ryan-doumit/</link>
		<comments>http://puckettspond.com/2012/03/05/2012-projections-ryan-doumit/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Mar 2012 18:00:40 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Previews/Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012 Projections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alexi Casilla]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew McCutchen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian Dinkelman]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Jason Kubel]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Jim Thome]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Matt Tolbert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Cuddyer]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Doumit]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://puckettspond.com/?p=7197</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Pittsburgh Pirate&#8217;s recent contract extension with Andrew McCutchen demonstrates their commitment to turning their baseball club around.  That they were willing to let Ryan Doumit leave town, probably says more about their frustration with his inability to stay healthy (has only played more than 81 games in 3 of his 7 Major League seasons), [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_7198" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 209px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/2/files/2012/03/5334616.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-7198" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/2/files/2012/03/5334616-199x300.jpg" alt="" width="199" height="300" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Credit: Charles LeClaire-USPRESSWIRE</p></div>
<p>The Pittsburgh Pirate&#8217;s recent contract extension with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a></strong> demonstrates their commitment to turning their baseball club around.  That they were willing to let <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doumiry01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ryan Doumit</a></strong> leave town, probably says more about their frustration with his inability to stay healthy (has only played more than 81 games in 3 of his 7 Major League seasons), than it does with Doumit&#8217;s ability.  Doumit, along with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willijo03.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Josh Willingham</a></strong>, is part of a pair of free agent acquisitions that the Twins hope will replace the offensive void left by the departed outfield/DH combo of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuddymi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Michael Cuddyer</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kubelja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jason Kubel</a></strong>. While neither Doumit or Willingham is a perfect replacement for either Cuddyer of Kubel, the two new Twins will provide manager Ron Gardenhire with the defensive flexibility of Michael Cuddyer and offensive power of Jason Kubel.  Doumit&#8217;s role on the Twins will likely be to serve as the regular DH while also giving Mauer a rest behind the plate, or serving as a late inning pinch hitter in games he does not start.</p>
<p>Defensively, Doumit leaves something to be desired.  He&#8217;s below average as a catcher and at 1B (where he is hesitant to play in 2012, per <a href="http://www.fantasysp.com/player/mlb/Ryan_Doumit/2094222/manager-ron-gardenhire-doesnt-plan-on-using-doumit-at-first" target="_blank">recent comments</a>from Ron Gardenhire), and while he&#8217;s not as bad as an outfielder, he&#8217;s still -2 runs worse than average by Total Zone ratings.  Offesnively Doumit is coming off his best season since 2008, earning 1.5 Offensive Wins Above Replacement, despite just 236 plate appearances.  Doumit is a career .271/.334/.442 (BA/OBP/SLG) hitter, and he&#8217;s been slightly better over his past 4 seasons, posting an OPS+ of 111.  While he will not generally hit for a high average, due in part to a 17.2% career K rate, Doumit has drawn walks in almost 8% of his plate appearances since 2009, putting him on base more than 1/3 of the time.  When he does make contact, more 34% of his hits are for extra bases.  <a href="http://puckettspond.com/2012/03/05/2012-projections-ryan-doumit/#more-7197" class="more-link">(more&#8230;)</a></p>
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		<title>Twins on the move: Slowey and Tolbert</title>
		<link>http://puckettspond.com/2012/01/20/twins-on-the-move-slowey-and-tolbert/</link>
		<comments>http://puckettspond.com/2012/01/20/twins-on-the-move-slowey-and-tolbert/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Jan 2012 01:46:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Signings/Transactions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daniel Turpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Slowey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Tolbert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://puckettspond.com/?p=6977</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A couple of players who spent 2011 with the Twins have moved on to different teams. Kevin Slowey will not be reunited with Michael Cuddyer after all. Just six weeks after the Twins dealt Slowey to the Rockies, Colorado turned around and flipped him over to the Cleveland Indians in exchange for reliever Zach Putnam [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A couple of players who spent 2011 with the Twins have moved on to different teams.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sloweke01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kevin Slowey</a></strong> will not be reunited with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuddymi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Michael Cuddyer</a></strong> after all. Just six weeks after the Twins dealt Slowey to the Rockies, Colorado turned around and <a title="Indians Acquire Slowey" href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7485048/cleveland-indians-acquire-kevin-slowey-rotation-depth" target="_blank">flipped him over</a> to the Cleveland Indians in exchange for reliever <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/putnaza01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Zach Putnam</a></strong> and a little spending cash. The Tribe are apparently looking at Slowey as a possible replacement for the pitcher formerly known as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carmofa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Fausto Carmona</a></strong>. If Slowey does manage to win a spot in the Cleveland rotation, he&#8217;ll probably get at least two or three chances to pitch against his former team. That should make for some good viewing, partly because it&#8217;s always fun to see former players play against the Twins, and partly because there was some well-publicized animosity between Slowey and the Twins&#8217; clubhouse.</p>
<p>Despite that, I&#8217;m a little irked by this trade for two reasons. First, I kind of wanted to see how well Slowey would do at Coors Field. Slowey is an extreme flyball pitcher, and Coors is a stadium where baseballs jump over the fence at an alarming rate. If Slowey pitched well there, that would prove he can pitch anywhere (which would make the Twins look bad). If he didn&#8217;t succeed, that could have created some potentially hideous stat lines (which would have made the Twins look good). <a href="http://puckettspond.com/2012/01/20/twins-on-the-move-slowey-and-tolbert/#more-6977" class="more-link">(more&#8230;)</a></p>
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		<title>The Twins and OBP</title>
		<link>http://puckettspond.com/2012/01/07/the-twins-and-obp/</link>
		<comments>http://puckettspond.com/2012/01/07/the-twins-and-obp/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Jan 2012 18:08:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Graphs/Stats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Valencia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Delmon Young]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Denard Span]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Butera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jamey Carroll]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Repko]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Mauer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Willingham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Morneau]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luke Hughes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Tolbert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[On Base Percentage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rene Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rene Tosoni]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Doumit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tsuyoshi Nishioka]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://puckettspond.com/?p=6932</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Twins were bad at a lot of things last year, but one underachievement really stands out. The team was 13th in the American League in on-base percentage with a laughable .306 mark. Only the Seattle Mariners (who play at Safeco Field and use whiffle bats) were worse. The .306 figure was the worst for [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Twins were bad at a lot of things last year, but one underachievement really stands out. The team was 13th in the American League in on-base percentage with a laughable .306 mark. Only the Seattle Mariners (who play at Safeco Field and use whiffle bats) were worse. The .306 figure was the worst for Minnesota since the strike-addled 1981 season. And it came just one season after the Twins placed second in the AL with a respectable .341 OBP.</p>
<p>Last year&#8217;s squad was filled with on-base-challenged players. The lack of base runners was a significant factor in the Twins&#8217; failure to score runs and thus, to win games. Fortunately, it looks like the numbers will improve big time in 2012.</p>
<p>First, let&#8217;s grimace at how bad the story was in 2011. In the modern MLB, a .300 OBP is pretty much a bare minimum for an everyday player. Ideally, if a player can&#8217;t get on base 30% of the time, he should never stay in the Majors long enough to reach 100 PAs, unless he is an Ozzie-Smith-Level defensive superstar. The Twins had not one, not two, but nine players with at least 100 plate appearances who failed to achieve a .300 OBP, and none of them were Ozzies. In descending order, they were: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valenda01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Danny Valencia</a></strong> (.294), <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hughelu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Luke Hughes</a></strong> (.288), <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morneju01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Justin Morneau</a></strong> (.285), <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nishits01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Tsuyoshi Nishioka</a></strong> (.278), <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tosonre01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Rene Tosoni</a></strong> (.275), <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/repkoja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jason Repko</a></strong> (.270), <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tolbema01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Matt Tolbert</a></strong> (.252), <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverre01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Rene Rivera</a></strong> (.211), and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buterdr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Drew Butera</a></strong> (.210). The Twins finished with the worst record in the AL, while the League Champion Texas Rangers had ZERO players with 100 PAs and an OBP under .300. Somehow, I don&#8217;t think that was a coincidence.</p>
<p>Okay, that was depressing. But the good news is that the on-base situation is virtually guaranteed to get better in 2012. Here&#8217;s why: <a href="http://puckettspond.com/2012/01/07/the-twins-and-obp/#more-6932" class="more-link">(more&#8230;)</a></p>
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