Puckett's Pond » Kyle Waldrop

Who should be the Twins’ September Call-Ups?

Tue, 14 Aug 2012 11:08:46 +0000

When you’re a fan of a team that’s hunting for a playoff spot, you look forward to October. When you’re a fan of a team that’s fighting to avoid the worst record in the American League, you look forward to September.

No, unfortunately, there isn’t a special September playoff series for bad teams. We look forward to September because that’s when Major League active rosters expand, thus allowing the Twins (and the other 29 MLB squads) to bring some of their prospects up to play in the Big Leagues. Contenders might be afraid to use too many young, untested players with so much on the line, but bad teams usually take this opportunity to audition some of their future stars.

Yesterday, Cody Christie wrote that Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia have played well enough at AA New Britain to earn a call-up next month. He also brought up an important point, that Hicks might be left behind, since he is not on the Twins’ 40 man roster. That inspired this writer to take a look at all of the players who areon the 40 man roster and think about which players we might see this fall.

Some caveats for this discussion. First, New Britain is likely to make it to the Eastern League playoffs, and AAA Rochester is just four games behind in the International League wild card race. If those teams make the playoffs, the Twins are not likely to call up their players until it’s over. Both leagues conclude regular season play in early September and then conduct two best-of-five series to determine a winner, so the playoffs could last until mid-September. Second, while my assessments are primarily based on player performance, the Twins could be thinking of other factors in making their call-up decisions, such as accumulation of service time or effect on player development. Finally, of the 14 players on the 40 man roster who aren’t currently with the Twins, two (Matt Capps and Anthony Swarzak) are injured Major Leaguers. That leaves us with 12 players to consider.

Pitchers

Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gutierrez, Pedro Hernandez, Liam Hendriks, Lester Oliveros, Kyle Waldrop

To be honest, there aren’t a lot of exciting names on this list.

Waldrop has logged four innings with the Twins so far in 2012, so it’s likely he’ll return in September at some point. It’s doubtful that any of the other relievers will come to Minnesota. Guerra looked like he had finally turned around his career early in this season, but since a promotion to AAA, he’s had an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Gutierrez has been sidelined since shoulder surgery in mid-July, so he’s not an option. Oliveros was pitching well at Rochester until late July, but he too had a run-in with a surgeon, and he’s out for the season.

As for the starters, Hendriks has been devastating to International League hitters, accumulating a 9-2 record and 1.99 ERA so far. He has not had nearly as much success in the Big Leagues this year, but given the hodge-podge nature of the Twins’ starting rotation, he’s probably going to get another shot in the Majors in September, if not before then. Last year he was with the Twins in September, and he earned a 6.17 ERA in four starts. Hernandez, the pitcher acquired in the Francisco Liriano trade, has made two starts for Rochester, one good and one not-so-good. Unless the Twins are worried about his workload for some reason, there’s probably no reason not to bring him up.

Infielders

Eduardo Escobar, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Chris Parmelee

Parmelee is almost 100% guaranteed to be back with the Twins in September. This summer, Parmelee seems to have dedicated himself to trying to make the people who sent him to the minors feel stupid. He has a .360/.471/.703 AAA slash line, which is even better than the .355/.443/.592 he hit for the Twins last September. The only thing that could prevent Parmelee from being a September call-up is if the Twins feel the need to bring him up before then.

Escobar, the other leg of the Liriano deal, is another likely September Twin. He was already playing in MLB for Chicago prior to the trade, albeit as a bench player.

Nishioka is a tougher call. If the fans made this call, it’s pretty obvious that Nishioka would not be back. And even from an objective point of view, it seems like he has burned the last bridge back to the Major Leagues. But the Twins are known for trying to squeeze every dime’s worth of value out of their players, so we cannot completely rule him out as a possibility.

Outfielders

Arcia, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni

My personal opinion is that Arcia will join the Twins as soon as New Britain’s postseason is done. I do not base this on any inside information or even strong logic; I just get the sense that his AA performance is too good to ignore. The Twins should let him have a few at bats against Major League pitching so that they have a better idea how soon he’ll be able to handle Minnesota’s right field spot.

Benson reached MLB last September, but his career has taken a big step back since. Assigned to AAA at the beginning of the year, Benson hit just .179 there, got demoted to AA, then broke his hand. He’s back from the injury, but he still hasn’t broken the Mendoza Line for New Britain. It’s hard to argue that Benson has earned a call-up this year or that facing MLB pitchers again would be good for his confidence.

Tosoni was never as highly-rates as Benson as a prospect, but his 2012 has been eerily similar: assigned to AAA, demoted, injured, and slumping. Unless the Twins develop a big need for outfield depth, he probably won’t return this year.

Chris Parmelee was the September hero for the Twins last year. Who will it be this year? Photo by Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

Who is winning the bullpen battle?

Sat, 17 Mar 2012 20:26:24 +0000

Former Red Matt Maloney is one of the early winners in the Twins bullpen battler. Photo by Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

Another day, another four relief pitchers on the mound. Even with about three dozen pitchers in Fort Myers, we’re getting plenty of opportunities to watch (or listen to) their performances. Most of those pitchers are fighting for bullpen slots, so let’s have a quick recap on the bullpen situation. Right-handed closer Matt Capps and lefties Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing are probably guaranteed slots. The Twins usually like to carry 12 relievers on the roster, so that means there should be space left for one more lefty and three righties.

It’s starting to look like the lefty slot will go to Matt Maloney. The 28 year old shut down the Marlins for the last two innings to pick up the win Saturday, allowing just a ninth inning single to Aaron Rowand before a game-ending double play. With two punchouts in that effort, he now has eight in 7.1 scoreless innings. Maloney has some big league experience with the Reds, and that will be another plus. True, his numbers with the Reds were hardly inspiring (5.40 career ERA), but he has been a little better as a reliever than as a starter, racking up 7.9 K/9 and a somewhat lower 4.88 ERA out of the ‘pen. The numbers also hint that he’d make a decent LOOGY: lefties have a batting average .68 points lower against Maloney than right-handed hitters.

Kyle Waldrop has been impressive as well, matching Maloney’s 0.00 ERA through four innings. Parker Hageman of Twins Daily analyzed Waldrop’s mechanics earlier this week and concluded that his high release point makes Waldrop a potentially effective pitcher in the mold of Jon Rauch (but with a better sinker). Waldrop will never be a strikeout threat – he whiffed just 5.0 per nine at AAA last year – but he has to be near the top of the list of contenders so far this spring. Interestingly, Waldrop came from the first round of the 2004 draft, the same round where Minnesota selected Glen Perkins and Trevor Plouffe. The Twins had five picks in the first and supplemental rounds (Jay Rainville and Matt Fox were the others), but until very recently that draft was looking like a complete bust. Now we might wonder if they’re all just late bloomers. If Waldrop and Plouffe could have a breakout season in 2012 as Perkins did in 2011, the 2004 draft starts looking a lot better.

If the season began today, I have to believe that Maloney and Waldrop would win jobs. The rest of the contenders do not stand out as starkly, though there are a few who have done well. Casey Fein has allowed just one baserunner in 3.1 innings. Jeff Manship lowered his ERA to 1.69 Saturday, and he has eight strikeouts. Jared Burton was lights out until running into some trouble Friday. And Luis Perdomo has impressed some with his blazing fastball.

Several other relievers have been roughed up, and they’ll need to turn it around quickly if they want to win a spot. Alex Burnett, Terry Doyle, and Jason Bulger all have WHIPs over 3.00, which is the kind of comically exaggerated stat you can only find in Spring Training or Little League. Bulger has actually settled down in his last couple of outings, but he still has an ERA of 22.50. Anthony Swarzak, whose performance as a long reliever and spot starter in 2011 made him an early favorite for a bullpen slot, has been hit hard as well.

The good news for those players is that we still have a couple more weeks of Spring Training, so there’s time to turn it around. The same cannot be said for Tyler Robertson, Deolis Guerra, Lester Oliveros, Scott Diamond, or Aaron Thompson, who were cut and sent to the minor league camp earlier this week. More cuts are sure to follow soon, so we’ll have a little better idea of what the Twins bullpen will look like after that.

Looking Forward to Spring Training

Sat, 31 Dec 2011 07:05:19 +0000

Hard to believe that there are still 48 long winter days until Twins pitchers and catchers report to sunny Ft. Meyers for Spring Training on February 18, 2012. The only other team reporting that early is the World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals, so the Twins are in pretty good company.

If Terry Ryan and the Twins do not make any additional moves leading up to Spring Training, the starting roster should look something like this:

C – Joe Mauer

1B – Justin Morneau

2B – Alexi Casilla

SS – Jamey Carroll

3B – Danny Valencia

LF – Ben Revere

CF – Denard Span

RF – Josh Willingham

DH – Trevor Plouffe

With Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Luke Hughes, and Ryan Doumit on the bench. That leaves room for an extra positional player, such as Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Drew Butera or Rene Tosoni to make the team. With questions about Morneau’s health and ability to play 1B on a regular basis, Parmelee could have the inside track after a strong showing at the end of last season that led to a 1.035 OPS in 88 plate appearances. With Doumit serving as a potential 3rd catcher, the team will be able to give Mauer’s knees some rest playing 1B, and moving Morneau to DH, leaving Revere and Plouffe to platoon in Left Field. However, Butera has been with the team each of the last two seasons, pitchers have apparently enjoyed his low catching target, and Ron Gardenhire seems enamored with the light hitting catcher, so it will be an interesting Spring Training for fringe bench guys.

While there is really only one spot open for a positional player heading into Spring Training, things are much more uncertain among the 12 man pitching staff. The Twins’ projected starters are:

Carl Pavano – RHP

Scott Baker – RHP

Francisco Liriano – LHP

Jason Marquis – RHP

Nick Blackburn – RHP

Blackburn is arguably the weakest of the five starters, but if he can stay healthy he is not a terrible option as a #5. Marquis pitched well in the first half of last season before breaking his leg, and if he can return to that form and eat up innings 200+ innings in 2012 then he will earn every penny of his $3 million dollar 1 year contract. Liriano comes into 2012 with huge question marks. After a successful 2010 campaign Liriano was unable to find the strike zone consistently with his fastball, and was pitching from behind in counts, allowing opposing hitters to lay off of his slider. Liriano didn’t pitch winterball this year, instead working out at the Twins’ Dominican facility. Carl Pavano needs to continue to avoid injuries and eat innings. He should benefit from an improved defense behind him, but his inability to strike hitters out could come back to haunt him if either Jamey Carroll or Alexi Casilla can’t hold down their starting spots. (more…)