Puckett's Pond » Esmerling Vasquez

Twins trying to avoid another atrocious August

Sat, 18 Aug 2012 19:50:28 +0000

Nick Blakburn's poor outing last night was the latest in a growing line of bad Twins performances in August. Photo by Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE

August is when things fall apart.

It has been a tough month for the Twins. Sure, things started quite auspiciously, with a stunning series victory in Boston and then another, less stunning, series win over the Indians. But then the Rays and Tigers managed to exploit the team’s many weaknesses, and thanks to last night’s weak offensive showing, the Mariners have joined the list of clubs to beat the Twins in the calendar’s eighth month.

Last July 29th, Minnesota smacked the Athletics around for a 9-5 victory. After that game, the Twins stood at 50-56, a mere six games under .500, and also just six games behind division-leader Detroit. While a playoff berth still seemed like a far-fetched possibility, the Twins at least looked like a team that could finish near .500 and save a little dignity. But the August version of the Twins was about as dignified as a naked man digging through a dumpster. They won just seven of their 28 games that month then followed it up with a six win September, and suddenly they found themselves with the worst record in the American League and the second worst in the Majors.

The good news is that the 2012 Twins have already won six contests in August, which puts them within one victory of matching last year’s August total with nearly two weeks left in the month. The bad news is that they’ve already fumbled three attempts to gain that seventh victory, including last night’s loss to a weak Seattle team. The worse news is that the schedule gets worse after the Twins leave Seattle, because the next seven games are on the road against AL West contenders Oakland and Texas. If the Twins are outclassed by the Mariners, they might be downright embarrassed by teams that are actually good.

This team is at a crossroads, and though neither of the paths ahead is especially scenic, one road is far more treacherous than the other. On one hand, if the Twins manage to fight out a few victories and finish August with a near .500 record, they could have some momentum going into September, which is filled with games against weak AL Central foes. They could conceivably finish the season with somewhere around 75 to 80 wins, which would provide some positive energy for the offseason and maybe even make Minnesota a more attractive destination for the free agent pitchers they desperately need. On the other hand, if they continue to play badly this month, they will again find themselves among the worst teams in the Majors, and September will be highlighted by another fight to avoid 100 losses. If that happens, its difficult to imagine the Twins would try to build a contending roster for 2013.

Clearly, the first path would be the ideal one.

The problem is, the Twins’ pitching might not be up to the task. The team usually has a fighting chance to win when Scott Diamond pitches, and despite all logic they are 6-1 when Samuel Deduno starts. But the rest of the rotation has become quite adept at digging massive holes early in the game. Most teams don’t win when their starting pitchers give up three or four runs in the first two innings. If Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, and Cole De Vries keep having weak starts, the team might need to bring in yet another fresh arm from Rochester. Liam Hendriks and Esmerling Vasquez have had some promising starts at AAA. Though neither one has had much success in the Majors, it’s doubtful that they could do any worse than the group that’s here now.

If the Twins don’t manage to turn things around this series, they should definitely make a change. Their future as a team depends on what they do this month.

This Week in Twins: March 19-25

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 19:12:36 +0000

It’s Monday again, and that means it is time for a Very Special Episode of This Week in Twins.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka looks like he is going to attack us with that bat. But that is not why he was cut today. Photo by Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Topping the news on this brand new week is the latest round of roster cuts. The list of cuts is dominated by one big name: Tsuyoshi Nishioka. As TWIT noted last Monday, Nishioka’s fielding was not quite up to snuff this spring. His hitting did not help, either, as he batted a subpar .240 in 25 Spring at bats. This is obviously a big setback for a player who generated so much excitement when he came to the Major Leagues last year, but it is the right move. Nishioka is a talented, athletic player who just needs to build confidence and work on his mechanics for awhile. I think a year at AAA is the right prescription for him, and I look forward to seeing what he learns by next spring.

Carlos Gutierrez, Rene Tosoni, Jason Bulger, Luis Perdomo, Daryl Thompson, Dan Rohlfing, Esmerling Vasquez, P.J. Walters, Chris Herrmann, Aaron Bates, and Wilkin Ramirez also got cut. Minnesota now has a leaner (meaner?) locker room, occupied by only 45 players. The non-roster invitee list, which Puckett’s Pond has been following very closely, is now down to 15 names.

The remaining Twins start their week with a game against the Red Sox today. Before the week is onver, they’ll also play the Orioles, Yankees, Rays, and Cardinals, and they’ll enjoy their only off-day of the Spring on Tuesday. But the highlight of the week will be Wednesday, when the Twins face off against the division-rival Tigers for the first and only time in 2012 Grapefruit League play.

Weekly Winners:

Twins Pitching. At first glance, it seems silly to congratulate the Twins’ pitchers when they allowed two blowout losses: an 8-2 stomping against Toronto and a 17-6 debacle against Pittsburgh. Dig a little deeper, though, and both of those were flukes. The Toronto game was marred by one bad inning from Francisco Liriano, who more than redeemed himself on Sunday. And the Pirates game just got off to a bad start, thanks to a 10 run first inning. Ignore those two games, and the Twins allowed just 11 runs in the other six games this week, culminating in yesterday’s one-hit gem. Also of note: Liam Hendriks silenced the Red Sox for three innings on Friday. The Australian prospect has not allowed a run in seven innings this spring.

Mike Hollimon. Hollimon has become a Puckett’s Pond favorite, and if he keeps up his hitting tear, he ought to become a Twins favorite as well. The infielder went 4-4 plus a walk on Saturday, and he ends the week with a stellar .533 batting average.

Weekly Weaklings:

Terry Doyle. The Twins’ Rule 5 pick just did not have it together in his start against the Pirates. It resulted in the aforementioned 10 run inning. The Twins obviously saw some potential in Doyle when they selected him, but his Grapefruit League performance makes it clear that he is not ready to stay on the Major League roster for a full season. Presumably, the reason the Twins have not cut him is that they are thinking about working out a trade with Chicago to keep him.

Jason Marquis. Marquis has been battered by opposing hitters so far, yielding 14 hits and seven walks in 8.2 innings. If we were to decide roster spots based on stats alone, we would have to axe Marquis and pencil in Hendriks at this point. But wait! If you look at Marquis’ history, it is perfectly normal for him to get knocked around in the spring. He has posted a spring ERA above 9.00 in two of his last three seasons, including 2009, when he had a 10.08 Spring ERA then went on to win 15 games with a 4.04 ERA at Coors Field in the regular season. Conversely, his ERA in the spring of 2006 was a dazzling 1.96; that year his regular season ERA ballooned to 6.02 for the Cardinals! In other words, when Marquis gives up a lot of hits and runs in Spring Training, it might actually be a good thing.

The Twins Bullpen Might Be Just Fine

Thu, 08 Mar 2012 20:08:31 +0000

The Twins bullpen might be just fine, thanks in part to Jack-of-All-Trades Brian Duensing. Photo byKirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

Some people are optimistic about the Twins’ chances to rebound from a 99 loss season, while others are understandably pessimistic. Some are disappointed with the loss of Michael Cuddyer and the less than exciting offseason moves the team made, while others think Terry Ryan made some shrewd decisions on a shoestring budget. But there’s one thing everyone seems to agree upon: the Twins bullpen is terrible. That unit blew save after save in 2011, and the only free agent signed to a Major League contract, Joel Zumaya, blew out his elbow in a warm-up session (incidentally, that session made the Onion seem eerily prescient). Not only did the Twins fail to sign any top talent, but they lost Joe Nathan, arguably the best reliever in the team’s history, to Texas.

Yes, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Twins will have a pitiful bullpen once again.

Here’s the thing, though: it might not be that bad. If you use just a little imagination, it’s possible to envision the Twins’ 2012 bullpen being pretty competent.

Let’s start by looking at what a bullpen needs in order to be successful. Every modern bullpen is anchored by a closer and two or three competent setup men who can pitch the seventh and the eighth innings. It also helps to have a LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY for those who haven’t seen the term before) or two to come on and retire a left-handed slugger in a key situation. Finally, the bullpen is filled out with a couple of innings-eaters. You can have a decent bullpen even if your innings-eaters aren’t very good. Their primary job is to pitch in blowout games so that the good pitchers do not get tired.

We’ll start with the closer. I’ve written time and again about how much I dislike the Matt Capps deal because he is getting paid too much and he cost the team a draft pick. That said, he’s on the team now, and when he is pitching his salary really does not matter. All that matters is whether he can pitch reasonably well. And if you accept that his off-year last year was largely the result of an injury that has since healed, then you have to believe Capps will be all right on the mound. Sure, he’s not an elite closer, and he may not even be the best reliever on the team. But closers are overrated anyway, and all we need to ask is for Capps to complete the save 85% of the time. Seems reasonable, right?

Next, the setup men. One setup position is nailed down. Glen Perkins suddenly learned how to throw 97 mph last year, and that turned out to be a great career move. He showed off a 2.48 ERA and 9.5 K/9, which are exactly the numbers you want to see from your best relievers. All he needs to do is keep that up.

How about the other setup men? Jason Bulger was my off-season pick as a possible surprise star out of the bullpen, thanks to his time as an above average setup man for the Angels. But his first two outings of the spring have shaken my theory to the core. On Wednesday, Bulger gave up four runs in two thirds of an inning. The good news is his ERA actually went down – from 135.00 to 81.00. In two brief outings, Bulger has walked five and allowed six hits, including a grand slam. Okay, so Bulger probably isn’t the answer.

No problem, though. The other non-roster JB, Jared Burton, has been quite effective. A few innings before Bulger’s Wednesday meltdown, Burton pitched a dazzling fifth in which he obtained a flyout, a strikeout, and a 1-3 groundout on just five pitches. Burton, too, has been a competent setup guy in the past. Back in 2008, he had a 3.22 ERA and struck out a batter per inning. He’ll never be a dominant, shut-down type eighth inning guy, but he could be a dependable short reliever a la the 2009 or 2010 version of Matt Guerrier.

I cannot tell you who will win the last setup slot, but there are plenty of candidates. I would urge the Twins to take a chance on a guy with some velocity here. Lester Oliveros, Esmerling Vasquez, Alex Burnett, and Luis Perdomo all can let the fastball fly. It would be ridiculous to expect all four to suddenly become strikeout machines, but if just one thrives, that’s all the Twins really need. I would like to see the Twins trot these three out as much as possible this spring to see if one can impress. If none of them does, just give the last setup slot to Brian Duensing, who did well there in 2009 and 2010.

The LOOGY position should be fairly easy to fill, because the team has quite a few lefties in camp. Phil Dumatrait, Aaron Thompson, and Matt Maloney are all left-handed. As I wrote before, Dumatrait is surprisingly close to being an decent lefty specialist – lefties have a career .237/.298/.329 slash line against him.

Finally, the innings-eaters. Give one job to Duensing if he isn’t needed as a setup man, though “innings eater” is not the right title for him. I think he’d be great as a “utility pitcher,” a guy who can pitch the eighth inning if needed one day, act as a LOOGY the next, and make an occasional start if a starter can’t go for some reason. He could be the Nick Punto of the pitching staff. As for the other innings-eater slot, let Anthony Swarzak or Rule 5 pick Terry Doyle have a shot at it. Both are capable of burning up three or four innings in an emergency.

All things considered, the Twins do have the makings of at least an average bullpen. There are never any guarantees in baseball, and there especially no guarantees for relievers, who are often great one season and terrible the next. But the team actually does have the right ingredients, so we might as well look on the bright side for now!