And now, on to the links.  (more…)

I had so much fun doing research for the AL Cy Young post that I decided to do a similar post for the AL MVP. I’m not going to break down the 2010 ballot though because, for the most part, the voters actually got it right. I think Shin-Soo Choo (5.6 fWAR, 8th in the league) should have finished much higher than 14th, and I certainly don’t think Delmon Young should have finished in the top ten (2.1 fWAR, mostly due to his horrible defense: -9.7 UZR). Every other pick is pretty defensible; actually, the MVP ballot matches up pretty nicely with the season’s WAR leaders. Yeah, Thanksgiving was a couple of days ago, but this kind of progress is something to be thankful for indeed. In fact, it’s interesting to see how much things have changed in terms of awards voting in just the past few years. Though I occasionally make some snarky comments, I didn’t write these posts to dump on the voters in the past; that would be like savaging our ancestors for failing to use antibiotics to treat deadly illnesses like typhoid. They didn’t have access to technology that would allow them to watch any game at any time anywhere in the country, nor did they have the vast amounts of statistical information that we have available today. They made the best decisions they could with the information they had available, and with some exceptions, they did a pretty good job.

What’s more interesting to me is that our view of what makes a ballplayer great hasn’t changed all that much over the years; we still value things like speed, and power, and defense, that fans and front offices have always placed a premium on. It’s that our methods of evaluating these things have drastically changed. (more…)

Source: Yardbarker

Erin already tackled JJ Hardy last week (or whatever it was), but I came across a MLBTR post today looking at potential suitors for Derek Jeter, and the Twins were mentioned. Here is the blurb:

Twins – J.J. Hardy is a non-tender candidate after a disappointing first season in Minneapolis, so the Twins could be in the market for a shortstop this winter.

There are a number of problems with this, so let’s tackle them one by one. First off, JJ Hardy has been anything but disappointing. While his .312 wOBA isn’t great, it’s only ~5 runs below average, and Hardy isn’t known for his bat anyways. His defense has been worth 7 runs, ranking him 2nd in the AL to Alexi Ramirez. And, even taking into account the fluxuation of defensive statistics, Hardy has proven that he is a true +6-+8 defender at short.

Hardy is making $5.1 million this year, and will stand to make somewhere in the 5.5-6 million range next year, a far cry from the nearly 20 million that Derek Jeter will command. While Derek Jeter has been a better player than Hardy (duh), not so much that he is worth an extra 15 million. To look at their $/WAR, JJ Hardy has been paid 12.4 million over the past three years, while being worth 9 wins (I extrapolated his 2010 numbers to get to 2.7, given that there is roughly a third of a season left), meaning he is being paid roughly 1.38 million per win.

Jeter, meanwhile, has been paid 61 million over the past three years for putting up 14.5 wins (again extrapolating his 2010 numbers) for a $/WAR of roughly $4.21 million.

While Jeter is the better hitter than Hardy, the Twins need defense much more than they need offense. Their wOBA of .344 is third in the league, while their defense is either 6th (using UZR) or 8th (using DRS). Removing Hardy from the team and adding Jeter makes them a little better offensively, but it makes them a disaster defensively. So thanks anyways, MLBTR, but I’ll save ~15 million and keep the team better all the same.