Puckett's Pond » Deolis Guerra

Who should be the Twins’ September Call-Ups?

Tue, 14 Aug 2012 11:08:46 +0000

When you’re a fan of a team that’s hunting for a playoff spot, you look forward to October. When you’re a fan of a team that’s fighting to avoid the worst record in the American League, you look forward to September.

No, unfortunately, there isn’t a special September playoff series for bad teams. We look forward to September because that’s when Major League active rosters expand, thus allowing the Twins (and the other 29 MLB squads) to bring some of their prospects up to play in the Big Leagues. Contenders might be afraid to use too many young, untested players with so much on the line, but bad teams usually take this opportunity to audition some of their future stars.

Yesterday, Cody Christie wrote that Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia have played well enough at AA New Britain to earn a call-up next month. He also brought up an important point, that Hicks might be left behind, since he is not on the Twins’ 40 man roster. That inspired this writer to take a look at all of the players who areon the 40 man roster and think about which players we might see this fall.

Some caveats for this discussion. First, New Britain is likely to make it to the Eastern League playoffs, and AAA Rochester is just four games behind in the International League wild card race. If those teams make the playoffs, the Twins are not likely to call up their players until it’s over. Both leagues conclude regular season play in early September and then conduct two best-of-five series to determine a winner, so the playoffs could last until mid-September. Second, while my assessments are primarily based on player performance, the Twins could be thinking of other factors in making their call-up decisions, such as accumulation of service time or effect on player development. Finally, of the 14 players on the 40 man roster who aren’t currently with the Twins, two (Matt Capps and Anthony Swarzak) are injured Major Leaguers. That leaves us with 12 players to consider.

Pitchers

Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gutierrez, Pedro Hernandez, Liam Hendriks, Lester Oliveros, Kyle Waldrop

To be honest, there aren’t a lot of exciting names on this list.

Waldrop has logged four innings with the Twins so far in 2012, so it’s likely he’ll return in September at some point. It’s doubtful that any of the other relievers will come to Minnesota. Guerra looked like he had finally turned around his career early in this season, but since a promotion to AAA, he’s had an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Gutierrez has been sidelined since shoulder surgery in mid-July, so he’s not an option. Oliveros was pitching well at Rochester until late July, but he too had a run-in with a surgeon, and he’s out for the season.

As for the starters, Hendriks has been devastating to International League hitters, accumulating a 9-2 record and 1.99 ERA so far. He has not had nearly as much success in the Big Leagues this year, but given the hodge-podge nature of the Twins’ starting rotation, he’s probably going to get another shot in the Majors in September, if not before then. Last year he was with the Twins in September, and he earned a 6.17 ERA in four starts. Hernandez, the pitcher acquired in the Francisco Liriano trade, has made two starts for Rochester, one good and one not-so-good. Unless the Twins are worried about his workload for some reason, there’s probably no reason not to bring him up.

Infielders

Eduardo Escobar, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Chris Parmelee

Parmelee is almost 100% guaranteed to be back with the Twins in September. This summer, Parmelee seems to have dedicated himself to trying to make the people who sent him to the minors feel stupid. He has a .360/.471/.703 AAA slash line, which is even better than the .355/.443/.592 he hit for the Twins last September. The only thing that could prevent Parmelee from being a September call-up is if the Twins feel the need to bring him up before then.

Escobar, the other leg of the Liriano deal, is another likely September Twin. He was already playing in MLB for Chicago prior to the trade, albeit as a bench player.

Nishioka is a tougher call. If the fans made this call, it’s pretty obvious that Nishioka would not be back. And even from an objective point of view, it seems like he has burned the last bridge back to the Major Leagues. But the Twins are known for trying to squeeze every dime’s worth of value out of their players, so we cannot completely rule him out as a possibility.

Outfielders

Arcia, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni

My personal opinion is that Arcia will join the Twins as soon as New Britain’s postseason is done. I do not base this on any inside information or even strong logic; I just get the sense that his AA performance is too good to ignore. The Twins should let him have a few at bats against Major League pitching so that they have a better idea how soon he’ll be able to handle Minnesota’s right field spot.

Benson reached MLB last September, but his career has taken a big step back since. Assigned to AAA at the beginning of the year, Benson hit just .179 there, got demoted to AA, then broke his hand. He’s back from the injury, but he still hasn’t broken the Mendoza Line for New Britain. It’s hard to argue that Benson has earned a call-up this year or that facing MLB pitchers again would be good for his confidence.

Tosoni was never as highly-rates as Benson as a prospect, but his 2012 has been eerily similar: assigned to AAA, demoted, injured, and slumping. Unless the Twins develop a big need for outfield depth, he probably won’t return this year.

Chris Parmelee was the September hero for the Twins last year. Who will it be this year? Photo by Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

Knocking on the Door: Diamond, Dozier, and Deolis

Sat, 21 Apr 2012 19:12:28 +0000

We might see this guy again very soon. Photo by Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Despite the Twins’ lowly 5-9 start to the season, recent wins at New York and Tampa have given fans a glimmer of hope that the team might be competitive. Still, there are some rough edges on this Twins squad, and at some point they will need to call on some minor leaguers to fill holes or give them a boost. While Rochester and New Britain’s rosters are not stocked with potential superstars, there are a couple of players who could help, and they are almost ready to burst through the door into the Major Leagues.

In Rochester, lefty starter Scott Diamond has impressed in his first three starts. The 25 year old has earned a quality start in all three attempts, and he owns a 1.47 ERA in 18.1 innings with 14 strikeouts. Diamond did not allow a run in his first two trips to the mound against Syracuse and Pawtuckett, but he did surrender three in his last start versus Scranton Wilkes-Barre. Scranton is a hostile environment, filled with paper salesmen and deranged beet farmers, so we can forgive Diamond for that one.

Diamond’s struggled last season with a 5.56 ERA at AAA and an unimpressive performance in his stint with the Twins, but those struggles might be an anomaly. Before 2011, he had never posted an ERA above 3.50 in a full minor league season. In 2010, he earned a 3.46 mark between AA and AAA and struck out a respectable 7.0 batters per nine innings. He’ll never be ace material, but with luck Diamond could develop into a decent number three or four starter. That would certainly help the Twins feel better about trading fireballer Billy Bulluck to the Braves in order to keep him.

The Twins’ rotation has been the biggest weakness by far, and if things do not improve post haste, they will need to turn to Rochester for answers. Given his early season success and the fact that he is on the 40 man roster, Diamond has to be the first in line for a callup. He was set to make another start versus Lehigh Valley today, but rain intervened and postponed it a day. If Diamond shuts down the opposition again tomorrow, it will become increasingly difficult to keep him off the Major League team, especially if Francisco Liriano (scheduled to pitch Sunday in Tampa) delivers a fourth consecutive terrible start.

At the plate, Rochester middle infielder Brian Dozier got off to a sweltering start. Last Saturday, after he slapped two hits against Lehigh Valley, Dozier’s average stood at .441. He has since cooled down a bit, but he still owns a .310/.375/.466 line that would seem to erase all doubts about whether he could continue to hit the way he did in 2011. Dozier was one of the last players cut from the Twins during Spring Training. According to manager Ron Gardenhire, Dozier just needs to fine tune his approach to ground balls, and he’ll be ready for the Majors.

There are more obstacles in Dozier’s way than in Diamond’s. First, he is not on the 40 man roster, which means that Minnesota would have to drop a player from the roster in order to bring Dozier aboard. Earlier this week the Twins caused a minor firestorm by designating Luke Hughes for assignment. That move shows that the Twins do not have anyone they consider expendable on the 40 man roster right now; if they did, they would never have risked losing a hitter like Hughes. That could change, of course, if a Twin suffered an injury and had to hit the 60 day Disabled List. The other obstacle is that calling up Dozier would speed up his arbitration eligibility, a move that could cost potentially cost the team millions of dollars a few years down the road. If Dozier gets called up early in the season and becomes one of the top 17 percent of 2012 rookies in terms of service time, he would be eligible for arbitration after the 2014 season rather than 2015. Thus, his arrival could be delayed a few weeks. But if he continues to hit, that delay may become much shorter.

One other notable player who may make an appearance soon is Deolis Guerra. As recently as last summer, Guerra seemed to be speeding down the highway to Bustville. But then the Twins shifted him to the bullpen, and suddenly a new pitcher was born. Guerra, who had never posted an ERA below 4.89 in four previous seasons with the Twins, has been virtually unhittable this year. In six outings totaling 10.2 innings, he has struck out 10 batters against only one walk, and he has allowed only one run.

Guerra is on the 40 man roster, so that will not be a problem preventing his advancement to the Majors this season. He would probably need a stop in Rochester along the way; Guerra did see some AAA action in 2010, but that was before his rebirth as a reliever. Fortunately, the Twins might be able to afford to wait for him. In a development that is nothing short of shocking, the Twins’ bullpen has been quite effective so far.

Despite the obstacles, all three of these players are turning heads, and it would be a safe bet that all three will don a Twins uniform at some point in the season. Hopefully they will continue to play so well that the Twins are forced to speed up their arrivals in Minnesota.

Twins Cut Nine Players

Fri, 16 Mar 2012 02:28:16 +0000

Lester Oliveros has been cut. It's a good thing the Twins don't need relievers! Photo by John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Bad news for pitchers Aaron Thompson, Tyler Robertson, Deolis Guerra, Lester Oliveros, and Scott Diamond and hitters Oswaldo Arcia, Steve Pearce, Danny Rams, and Darin Mastroianni. Those nine men will officially not make the Twins roster out of Spring Training, as they have been cut by the team. Arcia has been placed on the Fort Myers Miracle roster, Guerra, Oliveros, Diamond, and Robertson have been sent to AAA Rochester, and the others are going to the minor league camp to compete for positions.

Noted football coach Homer Simpson once said that cutting players is “the easiest part of any coach’s job,” but I’m sure it’s a little tougher for Ron Gardenhire and the rest of the Twins staff this year, since they have well over 60 players and can only take 25 north in April. On the plus side, after today’s 17-6 pounding at the hands of the Pirates, there are quite a few Twins pitchers who must be very grateful the team didn’t wait a few hours to make the cuts!

It’s a bit surprising that Oliveros was cut so early in the spring. I doubt that the cut was based on his performance in Fort Myers; he picked up the save yesterday, and he has given up just one run in three innings to go with four strikeouts. And it isn’t as the team thinks he lacks potential, since the 23 year old with a lively fastball was obviously high enough on the Twins radar to be worth trading Delmon Young for. Oliveros put up a respectable 4.05 ERA in 13.1 innings of work for the Twins late in 2011, long after Minnesota’s season was lost. Despite the cut, we have not seen the last of Oliveros. He is too talented, and the Twins’ bullpen situation is too weak, for him not to get a chance. Barring injury or an unexpected meltdown, Oliveros should get a call to the Show some time before early summer.

I also thought that Mastrioanni would get a longer look. Trevor Plouffe is not exactly an exciting option as the primary backup outfielder, and Mastrioanni’s ability to play center field should have kept him in the running a little longer. He’s basically a younger, more talented version of Jason Repko, and if Repko could stay on the Major League roster for two seasons, why not Mastroianni?

Arcia, Robertson, and Rams are still considered prospects, and none of them were a threat to make the Twins, so this is not really a setback for them. Guerra is also a prospect, one who thrived last summer after being switched to a relief role. Some might have considered him a darkhorse candidate to win a bullpen slot. He still may make an appearance with the Twins in 2012, but a poor showing this spring (15.00 ERA in three innings of work) did nothing to improve his chances.