Textbook Quad stretch. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Clever titles aside, the Denard Span trade has been all the rage.  First, the Twins traded one of their best players.  Span was an underrated player, and someone who will give the Nationals great at bats and steady, rangy center field play.  Second, the Twins acquired a player unlike any player they have ever had.  Alex Meyer has a fastball that can hit triple digits!  I mean, it is the lowest of all numbers with three digits, but it is still really impressive.  He does not fit the traditional Twins mold, which is something that many fans have to be excited about.  Finally, this trade somehow came out of nowhere.  It was the week before the Winter Meetings.  While Span was long rumored to be on Washington’s X-Mas Holiday (sensitivity!) wish list, I hadn’t seen any rumors of a potential trade right now.  I had seen Span linked to Cincinnati, Atlanta and Tampa Bay, but not Warshington.  In addition, I’m not sure anyone expected a pure 1 player for 1 player trade involving Span and a prospect.

So…  WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?!!?!?!>!>!!?!?!??!

Calm down.

By my intense calculations, this trade has 4 specific ramifications on the 2013 AL Central Division Participant Minnesota Twins.  A good teacher provides an outline or study guide, so here is mine:

1.  Ben Revere inherits the leadoff spot and center field and Chris Parmelee inherits right field.

2.  The Twins have some level of trust in Aaron Hicks and/or Joe Benson.

3.  Alex Meyer is being dispatched to reign down fury on the entire state of Connecticut.

4.  Terry Ryan tacitly admits that 2013 contention is in doubt.

Let’s tackle these in reverse order:

4.  Terry Ryan tacitly admits that 2013 contention is in doubt.

Honestly, this has been true since the beginning of 2012.  Carl Pavano, Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano were unsigned after 2012.  That’s only 60% of the rotation, you know.  Even if all three signed for 2013, there would have been major questions.  Instead, they are all gone (as of right now, but Liriano could be on his way back, in what can only be described as “a total troll move.”) and the replacements are literally replacement level players.

Even with a bulk of free agent pitchers available, it is very difficult to build 80% of a starting rotation.  Sure, we can all instruct Ryan to sign Zack Greinke, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden, but actually doing that is quite challenging.  Perhaps, Ryan could set every other GM’s alarm clock to late February, and hope they all oversleep.  Unlikely.  The reality is that a whole mess of teams need pitching.  If the Twins even sign one quality free agent, we should be happy.  Odds are, they won’t.

BUT!  That does lead me to point number 3.

3.  Alex Meyer is being dispatched to reign down fury on the entire state of Connecticut.

This point assumes that Meyer will be assigned to Class AA New Britain to play for the Class AA New Britain Rock Cats.  He seems ready.  This also assumes that Meyer will dominate said Class AA league with his super fastball and super slider.  Sure, he has things to work on, but he is also a super prospect and one that fans should be super excited to see develop.  As he develops, we can hope that he assumes his rightful place at the top of prospect rankings.  I mean, he is 6′ 9″ and should be able to climb faster than those with shorter bodies.  In addition, I bet he can dunk.

If Meyer shows that he can dominate in AA, he could end up in AAA or even the MLB by the end of the season.  Fans should not expect dominance in a Twins uniform right away, but should he maintain the command of his pitches, there is no reason he can’t be one of the most exciting players on the horizon.  If nothing else, he gives the Twins a potential number 1 starter down the line.  At this time last week, the Twins did not have a pitcher like that.  Which is nice.

Speaking of exciting players…

2.  The Twins have some level of trust in Aaron Hicks and/or Joe Benson.

Do not confuse this statement with these two things:  a) Ron Gardenhire has some level of trust in these two players, or b) One or both of these two players will be on the Opening Day MLB roster.  It is entirely possible that these two comprise 2/3rds of the Rochester outfield (a killer defensive outfield if they are both there) to start the year.  However, the organizational depth would dictate that these are the two guys who are next in line.

It is easy to forget about Benson, after his abysmal and injury-filled 2012, but this guy has tools that Tim Allen would be jealous of.  I’m pretty sure Home Improvement references are still cool.  Hicks had a great 2012, took a huge step forward in AA and likely will be in the MLB during 2013, if there are no steps taken backward.  If Revere, Parmelee or Josh Willingham are injured, one of these guys will need to spend decent time with the MLB club.  Darin Mastroianni can fill the void temporarily, but is best suited as a 4th outfielder over the course of a season.   If Revere is injured, either Benson or Hicks can handle center field, which is not something to overrate.

Another great Quad stretch. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Which brings me to my final point.

1.  Ben Revere inherits the leadoff spot and center field and Chris Parmelee inherits right field.

I’m not sure how I feel about this.  Revere is no Span.  He could get there, but he would have to add significant power and on-base percentage (OBP).  Revere sees pitches, and makes good contact, but his OBP is heavily dependent on his batting average.  This could lead to some wild variation based on luck.  Case in point, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in 2011 was .293, lower than would be expected from someone with his speed.  As a result, he hit .267 and had an OBP of .310.  Those are terrible numbers in tandem.  In 2012, his BABIP jumped to .325 and his average jumped to .294 while his OBP was a respectable .333.

Span’s OBP was consistently good because he drew a good deal of walks and could overcome a bad BABIP year.  Revere’s season could play out in a few ways.  He could have crazy good luck, combined with his speed, and post a BABIP around .355.  If you correlate that with his other numbers, he could end up with a .325 batting average and an OBP around .360.  That would be dynamic.  He could have crazy bad luck, and post a BABIP around .265.  Now we are looking at a batting average around .235 and an OBP in the area of .280.  This is very unlikely with his speed, as he can get a lot of infield hits, but it does represent his downside.  The third option is somewhere in between, which is most likely.

Regardless of his BABIP, one thing is nearly certain.  Revere will have no power to speak of.  He barely has doubles power.  If he ever hits an over the fence home run, the World may explode.  His lack of power really limits his upside, especially in a bad luck season.

Chris Parmelee deserves an opportunity.  Well, I guess he does.  September of 2011 says that he does.  His 2012 AAA numbers says that he does.  The rest of his career doesn’t scream, “LET’S FIND A SPOT FOR THIS FUTURE MVP.”  With a team trending downward, it doesn’t hurt to give a youngish guy a chance.  If he can provide 15-25 home runs and play any form of non-Delmon defense, then he can have value while he is pre-arbitration eligible.

I’m not convinced he can provide that.  He got moved around a lot last year, but did end with about a third of a season’s worth of at bats.  His OBP was under .300, he only hit 5 home runs and he struck out in over a quarter of his at bats.

It was certainly an interesting move.  It came out of center field (HAHAHAHAHA) and surprised a great deal of people.  Denard Span will make Washington better in 2013.  Alex Meyer could make the Twins significantly better in 2015.  You have to give something to get something, and it seems that the Twins got something pretty interesting.

The Nationals are one of very few teams that can afford to trade a potential impact starting pitcher, something the Twins desperately need. Their starting rotation is the best in baseball and their top four are all 27 or younger. The Twins are a team that can afford to trade a very good Major League centerfielder under a very team friendly contract because they already have Ben Revere, a similar but younger player to take over for him in 2013, top prospect Aaron Hicks likely only a year away, and also need to clear a spot in the outfield for Chris Parmelee now and Oswaldo Arcia soon. And lest we forget, Joe Benson is still around and with a bounce-back year could be right back in the outfield mix.

The Twins could have traded Span and gotten a more Major League ready player or two that could have helped in 2013. But playing to improve the 2013 team is putting lipstick on a pig. Without trading away top prospects and breaking the bank on free agent signings, there is no way to patch that starting rotation enough to be a legitimate contender. And there is no sense sacrificing the future in a misguided effort to put together a .500 team. Trading Span for a young and somewhat raw, but extremely talented starting pitching prospect makes sense. Ace pitchers are hard to come by and for the most part, come in the mold of a big horse with a power arm. Alex Meyer comes from that prototype. Whether he ever reaches that level is yet to be seen, but there is nobody else in the Twins system with the look of a potential future ace. In fact there are very few pitchers in the Twins system that even project as future Major League caliber end of the rotation starters, much less aces. As we have seen year in and year out recently, championship teams are built around ace pitchers and pitching depth, two areas where the Twins minor league system was very thin before this trade and is a little less so now. It’s a step in the right direction.

On the Nationals side of things, they are filling a need in the leadoff spot of their already solid lineup and greatly improved their outfield defense by allowing Bryce Harper to move to left field, and Mike Morse to move to first base. Span also brings more speed to a team build around sluggers. Though they gave up one of their top prospects to get him, starting pitching is the least of their concerns and they could afford to trade from that deep well. Also, adding an African American face to a predominantly white lineup in a city with a large African American population is probably good for public relations.

For Denard Span, is moving from a franchise that lost 90+ games the past two seasons and looks to be headed there again in 2013 to a team that is an early favorite for the 2013 World Series. He slides seamlessly into an already very good lineup at the leadoff spot where he should easily score 100+ runs if he can stay healthy and centerfield between Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper. The chance to play on a World Series contender is what every player wants and that just wasn’t going to happen in Minnesota at least in the foreseeable future. And being the highest profile African American on the Nationals should open up some endorsement opportunities for him. Also, with a good couple years and some team success putting him more in the spotlight, he can set himself up for a big payday in a few years. By all accounts he really enjoyed his time in Minnesota and is sad to go, but he will be embraced by Nationals fans and feel right at home there soon enough.

Alex Meyer’s path to the big leagues just got a whole lot easier. As stocked as the Nationals are with starting pitching, The Twins are equally barren. And though the Twins are considered to be pretty conservative with their prospect advancement timeline, we shouldn’t forget that they tend to be much more aggressive with college pitchers as Meyer was. Matt Garza moved all the way from Low A to the Major Leagues in 2005 and Kyle Gibson was on the fast track before injuring his arm. Meyer could potentially see the Twins starting rotation by late 2013 if all goes well. He’ll be starting in AA most likely and a good couple months there, followed by a good couple starts at AAA and another terrible season by The Twins opening rotation could throw the door wide open. With the Nationals, there would be no need to push him and nowhere to put him in the rotation in the foreseeable future.

Twins fans are understandably upset as they lost one of their favorite players and gained in return a player they had never heard of and is assumed to not be of help for 2013. And to many, it was just another sign that The Twins were breaking their promise to use the added revenue from Target Field to build a consistent winner. But the reality is that without sacrificing a fairly bright looking future, there never was any hope for 2013 sans a miracle 2012 Baltimore Orioles type run where everything goes right. So while Terry Ryan can’t openly write off 2013, if he’s smart, he should be really be working toward 2014 and beyond. And any good Twins fan should remember that it was trades such as this that much of the 2000’s era success was built on. Let us not forget how important the returns from trading established players like Chuck Knoblauch and A.J. Pierzynski were.  Trading established Major Leaguers for low minors prospects is rarely popular with the majority of a team’s fan base at the time but when all factors are looked at, this actually appears to be a trade that benefits all parties involved.

September 25, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Denard Span (2) hits a 2-RBI double during the seventh inning against the New York Yankees at Target Field. The Twins deafeated the Yankees 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-US PRESSWIRE

It took some creativity in a Denard Span trade to surprise Minnesota Twins fans.  After all, his name has been tossed around during offseasons and trade deadlines for at least two years.  However, when a trade happened today, surprise was, well, surprisingly my first reaction when I saw the Twins’ trading partner.

Tampa Bay Rays?  I wouldn’t have batted an eye.  Atlanta Braves?  That would have raised an eyebrow now that the Braves have signed B.J. Upton, but I’ve seen some speculation that the organization could still be looking for another outfielder.  The Washington Nationals were simply not on my radar, and from the immediate responses I’ve seen, I’m not the only one who was surprised.  However, Buster Olney of ESPN The Magazine pointed out that, possibly, the move should be less surprising than some of us have found it to be:

It’s worth remembering that Nationals were very close to trading for Span in the summer of 2011; GM Mike Rizzo saw him play in high school.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 29, 2012

Fair point, Buster.  It’s just that we Twins fans have tried to forget as much of 2011 as possible.

So, a trade has happened.  Minnesota says goodbye to Span and is now welcoming with open arms minor league pitcher Alex Meyer.  Well, a lot of people are welcoming Meyer in true Minnesota nice fashion, but skepticism and criticism is already out there, too, at least in the Twittersphere.

My own gut reaction (after “surprise”) was “Noooooooooo!!!”.  Then, I took a deep breath and recalled my mild frustration at each of the last two trading deadlines when Span was still on the Twins’ roster.  My gut reaction is always sentimental, and I really do like Span.  But he’s been arguably the team’s best trading chip for two years, and each trade deadline and offseason has passed without a move, putting the possibility of ever making a good trade for him in increasing jeopardy.  Remember those recurring concussion-like symptoms?

Ben Revere is a major league centerfielder, and the Twins’ roster and minor league system are overrun with outfielders.  As I’ve said before, much as I love the guy, Span was the odd man out.

Those of us who are gullible enough to drink the kool-aid would have liked to have seen the Twins make a trade for a major-league ready starter.  It’s difficult to see how losing a good player like Span and gaining a minor league pitcher who hasn’t even played AA can help the Twins win 85-90 games in 2013.  Like I said, my first reaction is always sentimental, my first reaction is to drink the kool-aid that says the Twins can turn it around for next year with only a few moves and signings.  But the rational part of me that takes over after a few deep breaths thinks that maybe the Twins recognize it is better to plan for the future rather than the upcoming season.

Then again, maybe the team is making an effort to do both.  Phil Mackey of 1500espn.com points out:

With Span’s $4.75 million off the books, the Twins now have about $70 million tied up in guaranteed contracts for 2013. If the payroll sits between $90 million and $100 million next year, that leaves the [team] with at least $20 million to spend in free agency. (sic)

Twins’ Assistant GM Rob Antony appeared on AM 1500 today, and he indicated the Twins will be talking to more agents than teams.  Translation:  The team’s priority is now free agency, not making a trade.  Today’s Span-for-Meyer trade not only created some very solid depth for the team, but it also freed up about $4 million in the Twins’ 2013 budget.  The consensus seems to be that the Twins now have $25 million (or thereabouts) remaining in next year’s budget.  That doesn’t count money saved if Morneau or Willingham are traded.  (I’m still too sentimental to react to those possibilities.)

So Twins fans, hang on to your hats.  While $25 million to spend will not buy four ace pitchers, it can go a long way toward purchasing a game-changing contract or two.  Next week’s winter meetings take on an even bigger significance, as they will clearly indicate if the front office really thinks the team has a chance in 2013 or if they’re giving fans a party line while functioning in rebuilding mode.