Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

When the Minnesota Twins signed Jason Marquis to a 1-year/$3 million dollar deal a lot of people said he was another Carl Pavano type.  A pitcher who would throw a lot of innings, throw strikes (but infrequently strikes hitters out), and relies on the defense behind him to turn ground balls into outs.  Over his last five seasons, dating back to the 2007 season, Jason Marquis has averaged 153 innings, posted an ERA of 4.55, and gave up just 3.4 walks per game.  Basically, he’s been average.  His value over those 5 years add up to just 3.5 WAR, with an ERA+ of 98.  While he is not going to wow anyone with his stuff, Marquis adds consistency to the pitching staff, and allows the Twins to move Brian Duensing back to the bullpen where he can fill a bigger hole for the 2012 Twins.

Bill James does not project a rosy season for Marquis, penciling him in for just 118 innings.  In addition to the decreased innings, James expects Marquis to have a lower K/9 and higher BB/9 rates while also increasing his HR/9 rate.  When a pitcher’s k rate drops below 5, as James projects (4.96) his success has to be in his ability to limit walks and home runs.  James projects Marquis to go the wrong way on all of those stats, yet he believes that hitters will hit just .276 against him with a .300 BABIP, both of which represent a slight improvement over 2011 numbers.   (more…)