Nick Blakburn's poor outing last night was the latest in a growing line of bad Twins performances in August. Photo by Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE

August is when things fall apart.

It has been a tough month for the Twins. Sure, things started quite auspiciously, with a stunning series victory in Boston and then another, less stunning, series win over the Indians. But then the Rays and Tigers managed to exploit the team’s many weaknesses, and thanks to last night’s weak offensive showing, the Mariners have joined the list of clubs to beat the Twins in the calendar’s eighth month.

Last July 29th, Minnesota smacked the Athletics around for a 9-5 victory. After that game, the Twins stood at 50-56, a mere six games under .500, and also just six games behind division-leader Detroit. While a playoff berth still seemed like a far-fetched possibility, the Twins at least looked like a team that could finish near .500 and save a little dignity. But the August version of the Twins was about as dignified as a naked man digging through a dumpster. They won just seven of their 28 games that month then followed it up with a six win September, and suddenly they found themselves with the worst record in the American League and the second worst in the Majors.

The good news is that the 2012 Twins have already won six contests in August, which puts them within one victory of matching last year’s August total with nearly two weeks left in the month. The bad news is that they’ve already fumbled three attempts to gain that seventh victory, including last night’s loss to a weak Seattle team. The worse news is that the schedule gets worse after the Twins leave Seattle, because the next seven games are on the road against AL West contenders Oakland and Texas. If the Twins are outclassed by the Mariners, they might be downright embarrassed by teams that are actually good.

This team is at a crossroads, and though neither of the paths ahead is especially scenic, one road is far more treacherous than the other. On one hand, if the Twins manage to fight out a few victories and finish August with a near .500 record, they could have some momentum going into September, which is filled with games against weak AL Central foes. They could conceivably finish the season with somewhere around 75 to 80 wins, which would provide some positive energy for the offseason and maybe even make Minnesota a more attractive destination for the free agent pitchers they desperately need. On the other hand, if they continue to play badly this month, they will again find themselves among the worst teams in the Majors, and September will be highlighted by another fight to avoid 100 losses. If that happens, its difficult to imagine the Twins would try to build a contending roster for 2013.

Clearly, the first path would be the ideal one.

The problem is, the Twins’ pitching might not be up to the task. The team usually has a fighting chance to win when Scott Diamond pitches, and despite all logic they are 6-1 when Samuel Deduno starts. But the rest of the rotation has become quite adept at digging massive holes early in the game. Most teams don’t win when their starting pitchers give up three or four runs in the first two innings. If Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, and Cole De Vries keep having weak starts, the team might need to bring in yet another fresh arm from Rochester. Liam Hendriks and Esmerling Vasquez have had some promising starts at AAA. Though neither one has had much success in the Majors, it’s doubtful that they could do any worse than the group that’s here now.

If the Twins don’t manage to turn things around this series, they should definitely make a change. Their future as a team depends on what they do this month.

So let’s comb through that list and see who deserves a shot to pitch when the Twins have a little more to play for.

Diamond. The young lefty has been such a pleasant surprise that he deserves a post all to himself, and I promise that one will come out soon. For now, let’s just agree that Diamond has pitched his way onto the 2013 Opening Day roster. The only things that should prevent that are an injury or the discovery that he faked his identity (a la Leo Nunez and Fausto Carmona) to escape from Canada.

Scott Diamond (if that is his real name) is the only Twins' starter who has earned a job next year. Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn-US PRESSWIRE

Blackburn. Another pitcher who deserves his own post, Blackburn already got one. A couple weeks ago I opined that the Twins should cut ties with Blackburn, and I stand by that assertion. He has given the team some good years, but he is too young to be part of a rebuild and not a good enough pitcher to play for a contender. Of course, I don’t think for a second that the Twins actually will release him prior to 2013, but it’s still the right thing to do.

De Vries. Now we’re getting to the interesting pitchers. At first glance, DeVries appears to be a Diamond-like revelation. Like Diamond, the Minnesota native went undrafted out of college, but he clawed his way through the minors and broke into MLB at age 27. He has a 3.81 ERA and five quality starts. And he is actually a better strikeout pitcher than anyone else in the rotation – his 6.3 K/9 is tops on the Twins. But he has also given up an alarming number of home runs: 13 in 59 innings pitched. If he can find a way to cut down the longballs, he deserves a chance to compete for a spot next year. But that might be a big “if.”

Hendriks. Nothing has gone right for Hendriks in the Major Leagues this year, least of all the fact that opponents keep crushing his pitches. He’s 0-5 with a 7.04 ERA and 10 homers allowed in eight starts. But he’s also only 23, which means we have every reason to expect him to get better next year (if you don’t believe me, just look at how much better 24 year old Ben Revere is this year than his age 23 season). The even better news is that Hendriks has shut down minor league hitters at every level. At AAA this year he’s 8-2 with a dazzling 2.14 ERA and a respectable 7.0 K/9. Hendriks will eventually be a competent MLB starting pitcher, it’s just a question of when. He deserves a long look in Spring Training for 2013.

Duensing. Duensing is a Major League pitcher, but does he belong in the bullpen or the starting rotation? A certain internet writer argued a few months ago that Duensing would best serve the Twins as a starter, noting that he had pitched quite well in that role in 2009 and 2010. But his starting record has been spotty in 2012; opponents have put up a .345/.369/.549 line when he starts, compared to .238/.298/.306 when he relieves. And with Glen Perkins likely to be the Twins’ closer in 2013, the team will probably Duensing’s left arm to be available in the bullpen. Thus, unless the Twins somehow find another lefty capable of pitching in the late innings, Duensing should not be in the mix for a starting spot next year.

Walters. Thanks to an offseason spent scrounging for minor league free agents, the Twins have a surplus of 27 and 28 year olds who have had some success in the minors but have never been able to put it together in MLB. Walters is one of them. Before hitting the Disabled List with a shoulder injury, Walters put together a few surprisingly good starts, but he got knocked around in others. He’s a flyball pitcher who has always had homer trouble, and his control has never been as impeccable as the Twins like to see. He put up a 5.40 ERA and a 5.62 FIP in his seven start audition this year. That should be enough data for the Twins not to bring him back in 2013.

Deduno. Deduno is fun to watch, mostly because even he seems to have no idea where his pitches will end up. Through six starts, Deduno is 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA, but it’s hard to tell if that statline is completely the result of luck or if it’s because Deduno is a pitcher like none ever seen before on Earth, one whose “crazy” fastball is as confusing as his curveball is nasty. He also has a slider, but it’s nowhere near as interesting as the other two pitches. It’s difficult to see how Deduno could keep up a sub-4.00 ERA for long, though, since he has actually walked more batters (25) than he has struck out (22). At age 28, it’s difficult to believe that he’ll somehow learn to improve his control, but if he could, his two pitch combo would make him an excellent bullpen candidate. As it is, though, Deduno is a long-shot to wear a Twins uniform next April.

Swarzak. Like Duensing, Swarzak is a pitcher who does not fit neatly into the bullpen or the starting rotation. In a way, he’s like the Nick Punto of pitchers, a utility man who can help the team not by dominating the opposition, but by being available to do the bare minimum needed in any situation. Or if you’re a Vikings fan who remembers the 1990s, Swarzak the baseball version of Leroy Hoard, who once said: Coach, if you need one yard, I’ll get you three yards. If you need five yards, I’ll get you three yards.” Swarzak won’t strike out many batters, but you can count on him to post an ERA between 4.00 and 5.00 and eat some valuable innings. His best role is in long relief with the occasional emergency start.

Baker. The Twins can keep Baker around if they’re willing to pick up his $9 million option, but they’re more likely to decline it and try to sign him to a cheaper one-year deal. If he’s healthy by next spring, he deserves a chance to win a job based on his past production.

Gibson. Like Baker, Gibson had Tommy John surgery, but his surgery occurred last year, which means he’ll definitely be healthy by Spring Training. How effective he’ll be is, of course, another story. Gibson was a solid, but not awe-inspiring, prospect before he got hurt, and most people seem to think he could be a decent #3 starter one day.

To sum it up: Diamond is the only one who deserves a guaranteed job next year. Four others could be starters for the 2013 Twins. Baker and Gibson should start as long as they are healthy and effective. DeVries and Hendriks are long-shots, but they deserve a chance to at least compete for a back-of-the-rotation job. Five pitchers competing for five jobs seems like a perfect fit, but in reality it probably won’t work out that way. At least one or two will likely have health problems or fail to impress in the spring. And even if all five are healthy, none of them is exactly an awe-inspiring presence near the top of a rotation. Thus, the Twins should try to bring in at least one, and preferably two, pitchers via trade or free agency.

Who those others should be will be the subject of a future post.

June 12, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA: Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer (7) and Minnesota Twins relief pitcher Jared Burton (61) talk during the seventh inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Target Field. The Twins won 11-7. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

While his cameo appearance in the mid-summer classic was a brief one, Joe Mauer represented the Twins well by singling up the middle off LHP Wade Miley, then dutifully manning first for the AL squad’s final two innings. The optimism in me hopes that his perfect All-Star performance serves as a good omen for Minnesota’s second half of the season. I’m not about to predict nor pray for a division title, but there are certain things I hope to see from the team over the next 77 games, which I’ll list here categorically.

• Rotation – Here is how I’d like to see the rotation shakeout over the next 3 months. July’s starts will be taken by Francisco Liriano, Scott Diamond, Cole DeVries, Samuel Deduno, and P.J. Walters, who should return from the DL soon barring any further setbacks. If Liriano continues to pitch well, he should be dealt by July 31, netting some young talent for the system. By then, let’s hope that Carl Pavano can slide into his rotation spot for the month of August. If he shows some value in a few starts when he returns from the DL, he could be dealt by August 31 for either salary relief, middling prospects, or both. While Liam Hendricks could take that spot for September and aim for his first victory of the season, I’d prefer the team to give 5 or 6 more starts to Nick Blackburn. He’s owed nearly $5 million this year and more than that next. If he can straighten things out at Rochester, these few starts could give management an idea of whether he is worth keeping around for 2013, or if they should just cut ties. Hendricks should get the chance to pitch out of the bullpen in September to restore his confidence in getting major league hitters out.
• Bullpen – This bucket list is quite simple: Trade Matt Capps, make Jared Burton closer, keep Glen Perkins in the setup role he excels in, return Brian Duensing to his relief role (he’s always shown he’s better there), and call up Anthony Slama as soon as he’s healthy again. Alex Burnett, Jeff Gray, and Anthony Swarzak can round out the rest of the pen.
• Offense – The upcoming trade deadline will set the rumor mills afire as baseball fans look for the Twins to sell. There is no doubt they should be sellers, but the question is will it be a fire sale or will we see just a few sparks? Let’s hope that the only key offensive contributor dealt is Denard Span. I love Span and what he brings to the table, but so do most of the other 29 MLB clubs. He appears over past concussion issues and now able to contribute as a table-setter. Trading him would bring a return of prospects who could positively impact the major league squad for years to come. Other than that, let’s just hope Justin Morneau solves his allergy of left-handed pitching; Trevor Plouffe power never fades; Chris Parmelee, Joe Benson, and Brian Dozier show they have futures as solid regulars; and Danny Valencia and Tsuyoshi Nishioka get September call-ups, giving them a chance to show they can contribute in Minnesota, in Valencia’s case, or, in Nishioka’s, any other place in the world that will pay his remaining contract.
• Defense – The Twins need to play Ben Revere exclusively in center field following the trade deadline. Mauer has hit excellently this year, so I would hate to do anything that throws off his groove, but I still suggest this semi-radical idea: use September to test out his defensive versatility and prowess. Try Mauer at third, right, and left for a few games. Such experiments could speak volumes to Twins management as they plan for the future. My only hope is that none of this hypothetical toying and tinkering would affect Mauer’s quest for his fourth batting title.

The second halves of seasons have typically brought excitement and reasons to cheer to Twins fans over the past decade. While we may not be cheering over a playoff berth come October, hopefully fans will be cheering for a team that’s returned to respectability and contention. Too optimistic? Time will tell, but if Mauer performance turned out perfect last night, why can’t my plan turn out that way as well?