I had so much fun doing research for the AL Cy Young post that I decided to do a similar post for the AL MVP. I’m not going to break down the 2010 ballot though because, for the most part, the voters actually got it right. I think Shin-Soo Choo (5.6 fWAR, 8th in the league) should have finished much higher than 14th, and I certainly don’t think Delmon Young should have finished in the top ten (2.1 fWAR, mostly due to his horrible defense: -9.7 UZR). Every other pick is pretty defensible; actually, the MVP ballot matches up pretty nicely with the season’s WAR leaders. Yeah, Thanksgiving was a couple of days ago, but this kind of progress is something to be thankful for indeed. In fact, it’s interesting to see how much things have changed in terms of awards voting in just the past few years. Though I occasionally make some snarky comments, I didn’t write these posts to dump on the voters in the past; that would be like savaging our ancestors for failing to use antibiotics to treat deadly illnesses like typhoid. They didn’t have access to technology that would allow them to watch any game at any time anywhere in the country, nor did they have the vast amounts of statistical information that we have available today. They made the best decisions they could with the information they had available, and with some exceptions, they did a pretty good job.

What’s more interesting to me is that our view of what makes a ballplayer great hasn’t changed all that much over the years; we still value things like speed, and power, and defense, that fans and front offices have always placed a premium on. It’s that our methods of evaluating these things have drastically changed. (more…)

Especially a certain first baseman straight outta the New West. Justin “Ernest George” Morneau is slugging .695. He has an on-base percentage of .489, and a weighted on-base average of .502. His isolated power is a Barry Bonds-like .318, and he is either leading the league, or at least in the top five, in nearly every offensive category there is (he’s even leading the reigning batting champ by 29 points in the title race). He is the best hitter in the American League right now, and is already the early favorite to win the AL MVP. He’s certainly making the “Justin-Morneau-is-the-most-overrated-player-in-baseball” crowd (yes, I know, I was in that group) shut up for a minute. The question is, of course, how long will he keep this up?

Hot starts are nothing new for the Mountie, and unfortunately, neither are cold finishes. Since 2007, Morneau has completely disappeared in the second half. Last year, he batted .311/.390/.575/.965 before the All-Star break, then saw his production fall below replacement-level (.201/.310/.402/.763) afterwards. Morneau was diagnosed with a back fracture in September, which was hardly surprising given his Buterian .077/.178/.179 line in that month. It was the same story in 2008 (.353/.391/.512/.963 pre-ASB and .276/.350/.481/.831 post-ASB), and again the year before that. It’s also no secret that Morneau rarely ever gets a day off. Since his major-league debut in 2003, Morneau has played 820 defensive games, and while first base may not be the most physically demanding position to play, it’s clear that he needs to sit once in a while. His tendency to fade down the stretch has actually lead to speculation that Morneau is suffering from undisclosed back problems, a theory that might have some validity if he suffers yet another second-half slump.

Of course, even if he isn’t overworked and manages to stay healthy, Morneau isn’t likely to continue this level of production forever. I mean, nobody gets on base at a .489 clip who isn’t named Barry Lamar Bonds. His batting average on balls in play is .434! (the league-average is .297). While BABIP is sort of a lazy way to measure a hitter’s luck, a BABIP nearly 120 points over the league average means that Morny is bound to come back down to earth a bit eventually. Even though his line drive rate is up quite a bit (to about 20%, from his 17% career average), his overall contact rates on all pitch types are right in line with his career averages, so it doesn’t look like he’s actually making better contact. He is showing a bit more patience at the plate, boasting a league-leading 1.07 BB/K ratio and chasing only 27% of pitches outside the strike zone (down from his typical 29.4), but that might be because pitchers have been reluctant to give him anything to hit. Let’s just hope Morneau doesn’t get fed up with guys trying to pitch around him and start waving away at pitches outside the strikezone.