Credit: Charles LeClaire-USPRESSWIRE

The Pittsburgh Pirate’s recent contract extension with Andrew McCutchen demonstrates their commitment to turning their baseball club around.  That they were willing to let Ryan Doumit leave town, probably says more about their frustration with his inability to stay healthy (has only played more than 81 games in 3 of his 7 Major League seasons), than it does with Doumit’s ability.  Doumit, along with Josh Willingham, is part of a pair of free agent acquisitions that the Twins hope will replace the offensive void left by the departed outfield/DH combo of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. While neither Doumit or Willingham is a perfect replacement for either Cuddyer of Kubel, the two new Twins will provide manager Ron Gardenhire with the defensive flexibility of Michael Cuddyer and offensive power of Jason Kubel.  Doumit’s role on the Twins will likely be to serve as the regular DH while also giving Mauer a rest behind the plate, or serving as a late inning pinch hitter in games he does not start.

Defensively, Doumit leaves something to be desired.  He’s below average as a catcher and at 1B (where he is hesitant to play in 2012, per recent commentsfrom Ron Gardenhire), and while he’s not as bad as an outfielder, he’s still -2 runs worse than average by Total Zone ratings.  Offesnively Doumit is coming off his best season since 2008, earning 1.5 Offensive Wins Above Replacement, despite just 236 plate appearances.  Doumit is a career .271/.334/.442 (BA/OBP/SLG) hitter, and he’s been slightly better over his past 4 seasons, posting an OPS+ of 111.  While he will not generally hit for a high average, due in part to a 17.2% career K rate, Doumit has drawn walks in almost 8% of his plate appearances since 2009, putting him on base more than 1/3 of the time.  When he does make contact, more 34% of his hits are for extra bases.  (more…)

Blackburn pulled after another brief outing, an all too familiar scene in 2011. Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Recent reports out of Ft. Myers are saying that Nick Blackburn is uninhibited after surgery to repair ligaments in his throwing forearm in 2011.  The tall right hander is said to be gaining strength and is consistently working down in the zone as he ramps up for the start of Spring Training games, less than a week away.  Strength and mechanics will be key for Blackburn in 2012 if he hopes to recapture the performance that has eluded him the past two seasons in Minnesota.  In 2008 and 2009 Blackburn was successful posting an ERAs just over 4 (4.05, 4.03 respectively) and pitching above the Major League average posting an ERA+ above 100 both years.  Banking on that success, and the number of innings Blackburn was pitching, the Twins signed him to a 4 year, $14 million dollar contract, that includes a team option for 2014 of $8,000,000.  Unfortunately for the Twins, Blackburn has been unable to replicate his early success due in part to a string of minor injuries that Blackburn attempted to pitch through.  The results were as expected and his ERA ballooned to 5.42 in a 2010 season that saw Blackburn optioned to AAA-Rochester to work through some issues.  Blackburn came back in 2011 and carried a 3.16 ERA through the middle of June.  But then the wheels started to fall off, and he posted a 6.59 ERA through August 21 when he was shut down after throwing just 1.1 innings in a start against the Yankees with discomfort in his forearm.  While ERA is only part of the story when evaluating a pitcher, when an ERA doubles, it is more than just bad luck.  Overcompensating for an injury, Blackburn was likely over throwing his pitches, flattening them out, leaving them up in the zone, and serving them up like meatballs to opposing hitters.  (more…)

Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

When the Minnesota Twins signed Jason Marquis to a 1-year/$3 million dollar deal a lot of people said he was another Carl Pavano type.  A pitcher who would throw a lot of innings, throw strikes (but infrequently strikes hitters out), and relies on the defense behind him to turn ground balls into outs.  Over his last five seasons, dating back to the 2007 season, Jason Marquis has averaged 153 innings, posted an ERA of 4.55, and gave up just 3.4 walks per game.  Basically, he’s been average.  His value over those 5 years add up to just 3.5 WAR, with an ERA+ of 98.  While he is not going to wow anyone with his stuff, Marquis adds consistency to the pitching staff, and allows the Twins to move Brian Duensing back to the bullpen where he can fill a bigger hole for the 2012 Twins.

Bill James does not project a rosy season for Marquis, penciling him in for just 118 innings.  In addition to the decreased innings, James expects Marquis to have a lower K/9 and higher BB/9 rates while also increasing his HR/9 rate.  When a pitcher’s k rate drops below 5, as James projects (4.96) his success has to be in his ability to limit walks and home runs.  James projects Marquis to go the wrong way on all of those stats, yet he believes that hitters will hit just .276 against him with a .300 BABIP, both of which represent a slight improvement over 2011 numbers.   (more…)