Ron Gardenhire, probably singing. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

There isn’t a single team in any sport that wants to finish in last place.  Sure, there are times when a team might relish the opportunity to finish last and reap the reward of a top draft pick, but the idea that a team sets out to finish last is borderline crazy.  Even a team that looks terrible on paper, secretly has a fan base, front office and roster full of players that hopes magic will happen.  The Twins have finished in last place two years in a row.  Without major changes, a three year streak is a possibility.  How did we (I use we because I am including the fan base) get here?  Are we (remember, fan base) doomed to relive the 90s, when last place finishes instinctively flocked like the salmon of Capistrano?

Ron Gardenhire has been the Twins manager for the past 11 seasons.  In those 11 seasons, the Twins have had a record over .500 eight times, have won six AL Central Division titles and won {redacted} playoff games.  Ignoring the obvious lack of playoff success, the team has been generally successful over that period of time.  From a fan perspective, it is hard not to get used to watching a successful team.  In fact, things seemed to be lining up for the Twins to continue this success into the next decade.  By the end of 2010, Target Field had opened, Joe Mauer was signed to a long-term deal and the team was coming off of two consecutive AL Central Titles.

However, the last two seasons have not matched the previous nine.  That might be the understatement of the century.  The Twins have won an average of 64.5 games the past two seasons, after averaging slightly over 89 wins the previous nine seasons.  Perhaps some of that previous success can be attributed to a weak division, but the fact remains that the Twins won a lot of games between 2002 and 2010.  A drop of nearly 25 wins on average would indicate a pretty major shift in the organization.  So, what happened the previous two seasons?  Four key factors seem to be used to explain this lack of success.

Injuries

Occam’s Razor states that all things being equal, the simpler answer is usually more likely than the more complex answer.  For the Twins, injuries would seem to be the simplest explanation.  The Twins’ teams of 2002-2010 weren’t always perfectly healthy, but typically avoided the avalanche of injuries the Twins had in 2011 and 2012.  Sure, extremely important players missed significant time during that era.  That can’t be avoided.  However, rarely were there multiple important pieces missing for extended periods of time.

2011 was a year filled with injuries.  The opening day lineup averaged roughly 96 games played.  Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span, arguably the 3 most important position players on the team only played a combined 221 out of a possible 486 games.  Injuries forced all of the following players to play 60 or more games:  Drew Butera, Matt Tolbert, Luke Hughes, Rene Tosoni, and Jason Repko.  It would be very difficult for a team to field a makeshift lineup with many of those players and win significant games.  When you throw in a mediocre pitching staff, there is just far too much to overcome.

In 2012, the injuries hit that mediocre pitching staff.  Scott Diamond threw 173 innings, to lead the team by a mile.  Francisco Liriano and Brian Duensing were the only other pitchers to throw over 100 innings.  That fact is pretty staggering.  Carl Pavano last pitched on June 1st and only threw 63 innings.  Scott Baker missed the whole season due to injury.  So, the Twins essentially lost their two best starters from 2011 for the vast majority of the 2012 season.  While the volume of injuries was not as great as 2011, the significance of these injuries clearly hurt the team.  If you want to throw in Kyle Gibson‘s Tommy John surgery from the year before, there were 3 pitchers who could have contributed to a 2012 rotation that pitched a combined 63 innings.

Injuries are a part of baseball.  All teams deal with them.  The Twins have operated with the best players they can get, but outside of Joe Mauer, do not have a team filled with superstars or even young budding stars.  The loss of multiple pieces would hurt any team, but 2011 and 2012 indicate that the Twins cannot overcome major injuries.

Joe Mauer is good, so leave him alone!!!! Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-US PRESSWIRE

Player Development

The narrative states that The Twins of 2002-2010 were constantly bringing up players from the minors that could impact the major league team.  Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer were drafted by the Twins and put up MVP seasons.  When Torii Hunter left for Anaheim, Denard Span was ready to take his place.  Later in the decade, guys like Scott Baker, Ben Revere, Brian Duensing, Jason Kubel and even early Nick Blackburn were able to come up and contribute.  If players suffered injuries during the salad days, there were guys at AAA ready to come up and not completely embarrass themselves.

A two-year lull from these glory years of minor league excellence is not all that crazy.  It is entirely possible that the Twins finally had a more reasonable amount of young players to go to.  From 2001-2007, the Twins first round has produced a major league player all but once (2003 – Matt Moses).  While Trevor Plouffe, Glen Perkins, Ben Revere and Chris Parmelee are not superstars, they do appear to be useful players.  Denard Span is an underrated player and Joe Mauer is Joe Mauer.

In the next two years, there might be more in the reserve tank.  Aaron Hicks, the Twins’ first round pick in 2008 took some time to develop, but should be about ready in 2013.  As should Oswaldo Arcia, another young, promising outfielder.  Kyle Gibson, the 2009 first round pick, might be ready to take over a spot in the rotation by mid-2013.  Also, Joe Benson is still lurking.  It won’t be long before Miguel Sano, Adrian Salcedo, Travis Harrison and Eddie Rosario are getting MLB buzz.  This doesn’t even address the super young players like Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Max Kepler.

This franchise has fans that are used to seeing young players come up and contribute.  I am guessing 2011 and 2012 will end up being the anomalies and that player development will return to being a strength of the organization.  Perhaps player development was never the problem it appeared to be, but the farm system was simply correcting itself after years of pumping out quality MLB players.

Middle Infield

This one is pretty easy.  The Twins have lacked good middle infielders for quite some time.  The Twins have had good players in their middle infield over the years (Luis Castillo, Jason Bartlett and J.J. Hardy).  These players never last and typically for good reason.  Castillo was getting old, Bartlett was used in a trade and Hardy just wasn’t good when he played here.  For the most part, the Twins bring in older, cheaper middle infielders (Adam Everett, Juan Castro, Orlando Cabrera, Jamey Carroll) to fill in for disappointing young players or to fill a gaping whole with a few shovels of dirt.

The young players they have had never really developed like hoped.  Christian Guzman looked like a potential star, but didn’t reach that level.  Luis Rivas was awful.  More recently, Alexi Casilla did not pan out and Brian Dozier failed to hit in his 2012 debut.  The inability to draft and develop a middle infielder leads the team to free agency.  The free agent market is never overflowing with affordable talent.  Any shortstop that reaches free agency and is worth their weight in beans is going to get a big contract.  Take a look at the free agent middle infielders this off-season:  Click Here for Excitement!

The Twins have also not drafted a lot of middle infielders with high draft picks.  Since 2001, the Twins have had 23 first round and first round supplemental picks.  With those picks, they have drafted two middle infielders:  Trevor Plouffe and Levi Michael.  This does not bother me, especially if the Twins felt that better players were available when they were drafting.  It does help explain why there hasn’t been a young, exciting middle infielder on the roster for quite some time.

Nah, we don’t actually need you back. Thanks Nick! Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE

The good Twins teams could either make up for poor middle infielders, or had players at least capable of some level of production.  This lack of talent at important positions has seemingly caught up to the Twins.  It really isn’t even all their fault.  Getting a good shortstop is really difficult.  Most minor league shortstops move off the position.  Good Major League shortstops make a boatload of money.  There is a reason why elite shortstops rarely get to free agency.  When you find a guy who can play short, you covet that player.  The Twins need to find that player, as it would fill a huge hole.  It just simply isn’t that easy.

Pitching

Is the Twins’ pitching philosophy at least partially to blame?  Is the “pitch to contact” philosophy catching up to the team?  Did Brad Radke’s success as a low strikeout, low walk, good results, extremely rare pitcher spoil it for everyone else?  The league has changed in the past 20 years.  Strikeouts are simply more important.  In 1991, no one who pitched significant innings for the Twins had a K/9 over 6.5.  In 1991, that wasn’t really such a big deal.  In 2011 and 2012, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Samuel Deduno reached that threshold.  Unfortunately, Liriano and Deduno have sky-high walk rates, without a dominant strikeout rate to compensate.  Baker was the best pitcher on the Twins in 2011, but of course, he couldn’t stay healthy into 2012.  Does this mean the twins should only employ pitchers who can strike out a certain amount of batters per game?

Team philosophies do not always seem to correlate to success.  It would be a lot easier to address ideological flaws if there was an ideology that guaranteed success.  The 2012 Detroit Tigers are the anti-Twins.  They have loads of power pitching.  They were in the World Series.  Does that mean the Twins should copy that philosophy?  The San Francisco Giants rely more on their defense to make up for fewer strikeouts.  Their pitching staff is more balanced, with a better overall bullpen.  They beat the Tigers.  Should the Twins copy that philosophy?  WHO SHOULD THEY COPY?!?!?!?!?

The goal of baseball is to score more runs than your opponent.  There is no perfect recipe.  It takes a blend of pitching, offense and defense; the ratio of each is very hard to quantify.  The Twins may have ignored power pitching for many years, but they also seem committed to improving in that area, as evidenced by their most recent draft.  The pitch to contact philosophy helped produce winning teams.  It may not have been the only, or even most important reason, but pitching certainly contributed.

When we look back at 2011 and 2012, it is entirely possible that we see those seasons as temporary lulls in what are normally competitive teams.  A road map certainly exists that leads the 2013 Twins to a much improved season and possibly even a playoff appearance.  This off-season is extremely important.  The issues brought up above are fixable.  Injuries can’t be predicted, but a season of good health is just as likely as another season of bad health.  The farm system seems to be somewhat rejuvenated.  Players like Arcia and Hicks make it possible to trade a guy like Josh Willingham or Denard Span for a decent shortstop.  There is plenty of pitching available in free agency.

Perception is reality.  If the Front Office views this team as one that is a few pieces from contention, they will go out and pick up some pieces.  If the Front Office thinks that more work needs to be done, then this off-season could be remembered as the Winter when the Twins started a real re-building process.  One thing is certain, things cannot stay the same.  Status Quo isn’t working.  The team needs to make strong moves.  Signing Jason Marquis is not a strong move.  Signing Josh Willingham is a strong move.  The pieces needed to contend are out there, do you trust this organization to accumulate them?  I kind of do.  What else can we (as fans) do?

Help Wanted. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

So, in case you hadn’t heard or seen, the Minnesota Twins are a little light in the starting pitching department.  Here are some of the dudes that started games for the Twins last year:  P.J. Walters, Cole DeVries, Esmerling Vasquez, and of course, Nick Blackburn.  Whatever can be done to avoid allowing these men to wear Twins uniforms in 2013 would be wise.  I am unwilling to do anything physical to stop them, so we’ll leave it up to the organization to deal with.  Those that are already on the roster aren’t really sure things, but some interesting names are present.  Scott Diamond certainly earned the right to be in the rotation next year.  Liam Hendriks and Kyle Gibson are young and promising and likely will be given some variance of opportunity.  Samuel Deduno seems really nice.  Terry Ryan recently indicated that the Twins would be in the market for some starting pitching, so why not speculate on who might make a good fit?  Since I am an egomaniac, I’ll provide my predictions as well.

The Dollar Store

There is nothing inherently wrong with The Dollar Store.  If you need any of the following items, it is a wonderful place:  party favors, gag gifts, stickers and/or stale candy.  However, I wouldn’t do my grocery shopping there.  These are your Dollar Store players.  Nothing excites me about any of them.  They are either old, bad, or don’t fit.  While the Twins should aim to improve, they are still in rebuilding in a sense.  Most of these players don’t make sense and would just take a potential spot from Hendriks or Gibson.  I don’t think the Twins will sign any of these guys, unless they miss out on better pitchers.  In which case, Aaron Cook is my prediction.  Why not?  Here’s the list, I’ll let you decide who is stale candy and who is a gag gift:

Erik Bedard, Bartolo Colon, Aaron Cook, Kevin Correia, Jorge De La Rosa, Jeff Francis, Freddy Garcia, Rich Harden, Roberto Hernandez, Derek Lowe, Jason Marquis, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kevin Millwood, Jamie Moyer, Roy Oswalt, Carl Pavano, Jonathan Sanchez, Chien-Ming Wang, Kip Wells, Randy Wolf, Chris Young and Carlos Zambrano.

Old Flames

Ah, old flames.  So burny.  These two players were once Twins and hopefully will only be Twins once.  Nothing is really wrong with either guy, but the other options are more exciting and have less of a gut reaction of dry heaving.  Of course I refer to Francisco Liriano and Kyle Lohse.  Liriano is the old flame that we remember fondly.  2006 is but a distant memory though.  It was time to let go in July and that remains the same.  I wish him the best in his future endeavors.  Kyle Lohse is the old flame we remember angrily.  He was pretty awful when he pitched here and he burned some bridges on his way out.  He has had a bit of a surprise career renaissance, but I’d prefer we let that rebirth continue in another market.  Sorry, Kyle, I can quit you.

Kyle Lohse: Soaked with soda (probably) Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

Nada Surf

These players seem to be popular choices amongst Twins fans I talk to.  All three could best be described as inning eating 4th or 5th starters.  I am talking to you, Joe Blanton, Jeremy Guthrie and Joe Saunders!  These three do very little for me.  I can see their appeal as innings eaters, as someone other than P.J. Walters has to pitch for your team.  However, these three fit much better as back end starters on good teams.  On the Twins, they would either take a spot from a younger pitcher or give the organization an excuse for not signing a better, but more expensive player.  If the Twins sign any of these three, I will riot in my street.  Not really, but I might say “darn it!”  However, I do think that the Twins will land one of these three.

Official Prediction #1!!!!! – The Twins will sign either Joe Saunders or Jeremy Guthrie

Welp

Options

Ah, you’re probably thinking, these are the options for the Twins.  Wrong!  These are players with 2013 contract options of some sort.  I believe a few of these will be picked up and those that are not picked up belong to players that I can’t get too excited about.  I’ll let you decide who falls where:

R.A. Dickey – 5 million

Tim Hudson – 9 million

Paul Maholm – 6.5 million

Scott Feldman – 9.25 million

Gavin Floyd – 9.5 million

Ervin Santana – 13 million

Jake Peavy – 16 million

The Top 10!

The remaining 10 names shall be unveiled in reverse order, leading to the guy I like for the Twins the most.  This isn’t necessarily the order of how good they are.  I am factoring in things like age, estimated contract length and value, talent and swag [just kidding (or am I?)].  Some of these guys have options as well, so they may not even be available.  One can dream.  Try to contain yourself, we’ll be at one before you know it.

10.  Hiroki Kuroda

So very old.  So very effective.  He was paid 10 million dollars to throw a baseball last year.  The Yankees are going to need him next year and if he wants to hang out with men his own age, he’d be wise to stay there.  I think he is a great pitcher, but his price tag will be pretty high.  If the Twins gave him a 1 year, 10 million dollar contract, he would probably earn it.  There might be better deals out there though.

9.  Ryan Dempster

More like Ryan Dumpster, right?  Ah, just kidding.  Dempster is a jokester, he can appreciate what I did there.  Dempster isn’t bad, but isn’t young either.  He has been a horse of sorts.  He is more of a figurative horse, as opposed to an actual horse, just so we are all clear.  He has thrown almost 1000 innings in his last 5 seasons.  He can contribute to a team, obviously.  I’m not sure an older pitcher fits this team that well though.  At best, he’d be a stopgap.  He’d be an effective stopgap, but again, better options are out there.

8.  Brandon McCarthy

McCarthy is a lot younger.  He doesn’t have much of a track record and he can’t stay healthy.  That combination scares me.  My guess is that a team will get him relatively cheap.  He might even pay off.  The problem is you can’t give a multi-year deal to a player like this.  He doesn’t stay healthy and needs to prove that he can.  A one year deal wouldn’t be the worst thing the Twins could do.  People seem to like him on Twitter.

7.  Shaun Marcum

Marcum was outstanding in 2010.  Since then, he has mostly been the same pitcher, with one major difference.  His walk rate is rising.  5.4% in 2010, 6.9% in 2011 and 7.8% in 2012.  That is concerning.  All of his other peripheral stats are pretty well in line over the last 3 years.  If he can cut the walks down, he can be really, really good.  Even with the extra walks, he has still been effective.  He’ll be 31 next year and it is a strong market for starting pitching, so…

We use shaving cream for shaving in Minnesota, Shaun. You’ll learn. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE

Official Prediction #2!!!!! – The Twins will sign Shaun Marcum

The Twins could certainly do a lot worse (see Lohse, Kyle or Cook, Aaron or Blackburn, Nick).  I think Marcum is the right balance of being a lesser name, a more affordable player and enough of a strike-thrower to fit the plans.  He will be young enough to sign to a 3 year deal and he would make a great number 3 starter, with some number 2 upside.  I think he might be the best starter the Twins can afford and actually get under contract.

6.  Edwin Jackson

In the Twins favor is the fact that Edwin Jackson needs to play for every MLB team.  Jackson is better than Marcum in just about every way.  He seems to have a reputation for being inconsistent, but here are his xFIPs the last 3 years:  2010 – 3.71, 2011 – 3.73, 2012 – 3.79.  I’m not sure it’s possible to be more consistent.  I think that his only inconsistency is the team that he plays for.  I’d be very excited if the Twins signed Jackson, but something tells me he’ll end up elsewhere.

5.  Scott Baker

Baker is clearly not the 5th best free agent starter.  However, if the Twins can parlay his injury and team-history into a contract under 5 million next year, he could be a huge bargain.  In fact…

Official Prediction #3!!!!! – The Twins will re-sign Scott Baker

This isn’t really unique analysis, but it just seems like this is going to happen.  Baker can make this rotation, try to stay healthy and prove that he is worth a long-term deal in Minnesota or elsewhere.  He’d likely be the best starter already on the roster, and depending on how free agency shakes out, he might be the best starter on Opening Day.  An incentive-laden contract benefits both sides and Baker will still just be 32 in 2014.  Good gravy, go look at his 2011 stats once more.  He was blossoming before his injury.  Seeing how well Kyle Gibson is coming back from his injury has to make the Twins want to see what they can get from Baker in 2013.  He may not be the 5th best starter on the market this off-season, but it is entirely possible that he is in the conversation next off-season.

4.  Dan Haren

Haren basically has a 12 million dollar option with the Angels.  He is owed 15.5 if they bring him back, but there is a 3.5 million dollar buyout.  15.5 – 3.5 = 12.  Math!  Before 2012, it would have been borderline crazy to think that the Angels would have declined that option.  His walk rate jumped a bit in 2012, but only really in comparison to his remarkable 2011.  Otherwise, his walk rate is pretty in line with who he has always been.  His home run rate almost doubled last year, which sucked.  He is also giving up more fly balls compared with earlier in his career.  He probably isn’t going to be as good as he was in 2011 but he also probably won’t be as bad as he was in 2012.  Somewhere in between could be worth 12 million.  If he isn’t retained by the Angels, I’d bet he’ll get a decent contract.  If I were the Twins, I’d probably look for a better deal.  I still think Haren is great though.

3.  Anibal Sanchez

Sanchez might be a bit of a hidden gem.  When the Tigers traded for him, I remember being unimpressed.  Looking at Sanchez more closely, I see a consistently good pitcher, with inconsistent reasons why.  In 2010, he was pretty lucky with home runs.  In 2011, he was a dominant pitcher, striking out almost a quarter of the batters he faced.  In 2012, he cut his walk rate down under 6%.  If he could put all three of those things together, he’d be outstanding.  I’m not sure he gets lumped into the class of the top rated free agents, but he might end up being the best value.  I’d be very excited if the Twins signed him, and I’d be down for a multi-year deal.

2.  Zack Greinke

Greinke is obviously great.  His strikeout rate fluctuates more than you would think but his walk rate is extremely consistent, right around 6%.  His strikeout rates were high in 2009 and 2011 and his FIPs were under 3.00.  His strikeout rates weren’t as high in 2010 and 2012 and his FIPs were just about 3.00.  Any way you look at it, he is the best overall pitcher on the market.  He has the most upside and therefore will command the most money.  The Twins simply do not have the track record that would indicate a signing like this.  It would be a nice surprise though.

1.  James Shields

Shields is excellent too.  He won’t be as expensive as Greinke, if he even hits the market.  The Rays have basically a 7.5 million dollar option on him, which is more than reasonable and probably less than he is worth.  However, the Rays are ballin’ on a budget and have a decent supply of younger pitchers available.  If they do decide to save some money by letting Shields walk, he would be the 2nd most talented pitcher on the market.  He would likely cash in, but maybe not as much as Greinke.  Shields might not be an “ace,” but he is consistently great.  He strikes out a bunch of guys, doesn’t walk many and has a “big game” reputation (whatever that means).  He’d look good in a Twins uniform and not just because of his handsome hairstyle.

So, with my OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS!!!!!, this is what the rotation would likely look like next year:

• Shaun Marcum
• Scott Baker
• Scott Diamond
• Jeremy Guthrie or Joe Saunders
• Kyle Gibson or Liam Hendriks

Honestly, that doesn’t look too bad.  I’m not sure the rotation would be improved enough to win a division, but it certainly would help field a more competitive team than the Twins had in 2012.  None of those guys would destroy a budget and a few would likely be on one-year deals.  Next year’s free agent class isn’t going to be any better though.  There are some interesting names, but it is very hard to say if any of them would even hit free agency.  Why not get while the gettin’s good?  Knowwudimean?  Doesn’t this rotation look nice:

• James Shields
• Anibal Sanchez
• Scott Baker
• Scott Diamond
• Kyle Gibson
  

  Agreed, that rotation is number 1! Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

OH YEAH!  OH YEAH!!  It would be pricey, but competitive.  The Twins can try to trade for young pitching that may never pan out, or just sign it right now.  The future of the lineup looks bright.  So maybe pairing that lineup with a well-constructed, relatively young rotation would lead the team back to glory.  They could still trade position players for young pitching, it’s not as though these things are mutually exclusive.

If only it were this simple.  They aren’t bidding against no one.  Other teams need pitching too.  The Twins can spend, but so can other teams.  There is a way to get this team back on the right track, and it is hard to argue that some of these pitchers shouldn’t be a part of that plan.  Hopefully those other jerks in the league don’t get in the way.  If they do, the Twins might be looking at another 90 loss season.

Next year looks like it will be a good year. The 2013 free agent class has more powerful arms than the Cold War-era Soviet arsenal. Coincidentally, the Twins will have money to spend and at least two job openings for pitchers, as Jason Marquis, Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano will be departing (which should free up at least $17 million in payroll). Scott Baker’s contract is also up, though his deal includes a club option for 2013. Next offseason may finally be the year the Twins splurge for a decent starting pitcher.

The Twins might be executing a brilliant plan by avoiding the big name free agents this year. Kicking the can down the road just saves more money for 2013.

Here are some of the starting pitchers they could sign with all that cash: (more…)