It’s been nine months since we learned the Twins would have this year’s number two overall pick, and last night that wait ended with Minnesota selecting an immensely talented but equally unpolished high school outfielder from Georgia. The scouting reports unanimously agree that Buxton is a blazingly fast runner who will be a plus defender in the outfield, but that his hitting needs a lot of work in the minors, and he may never hit for power. Still, the Twins drafted the player in the draft who has the highest potential despite not having the first pick.

Minnesota badly needs pitching, and the obvious move would have been for them to select a power pitcher with this pick, but in a way it’s not the Twins’ fault that they did not. The top pitching prospects in the draft – Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman, and Kyle Zimmer – all come with enough question marks that it was hard to pass up a hitter like Buxton. In a perfect world, the Twins would have had a shot at a Stephen Strasburg style sure thing this draft, but that is not the way it went.

Buxton joins Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson, and Max Kepler in a farm system full of talented outfielders. In a way, the surplus of outfield talent could eventually help solve the need for pitching. Hicks, Benson, Buxton, and current Twin Ben Revere all project as good to elite fielders, and having three of them partolling the field would be a major boost for a flyball pitcher. By 2017, it might be impossible to hit a triple against the Twins!

One downside of the Buxton pick is that he will not be able to help the Twins right away – or even in the near future. From my research several weeks ago, high school hitters are not likely to reach the Big Leagues until the fourth year after they get drafted, which means we should see Buxton in Minnesota some time in 2016 (if he makes it at all, which is no guarantee, especially for a high school player). Fellow high school outfielder Hicks was drafted four years ago, and still is not likely to make the Majors until at least next year, though it should be noted Buxton is a more impressive draft prospect than Hicks was. This pick is definitely a major risk, but the Twins obviously feel that Buxton’s potential will be worth the growing pains, the time investment, and the opportunity cost of selecting a pitcher like Appel.

In the supplemental round, the Twins appear to have made up some ground in the pitching game. They grabbed Puerto Rican high school arm Jose Berrios with the 32nd overall pick. The scouting reports I read tended to make it sound like this was a reach, and that Berrios could have gone in the second round, but he looks promising. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, and since he’s young that might even improve. He also has a very good curveball that can be a Major League out pitch. His big task in the minors will be to develop a changeup; with that third pitch he could be a good MLB starter.

Twins pick Luke Bard really gets after opposing hitters. Photo by Mark Dolejs-US PRESSWIRE

Instead of taking Minnesota native Mitch Brown with pick 42, the Twins selected Luke Bard, brother of Red Sox pitcher Daniel Bard, out of Georgia Tech. The younger Bard can hit the mid-90s with his fastball as well, and he has a decent slider. Like Berrios, he’ll have to work on his changeup in the minors.

Brown, meanwhile, did not get the call on Day 1. The Twins have the second pick of Round 2 today, so it’s almost a guarantee that Brown will be there. But passing on Brown might still have carried some risk. If they select him today, he might opt to pitch in college and try to make himself a future Round 1 selection.

Glen Perkins was the last native-Minnesotan taken high in the draft by the Twins. Could another pitcher follow his footsteps this year? Photo by Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE

It seems that every year the Twins manage to draft a few hometown players. Last year they selected Madison Boer in the second round. Boer went to college in Oregon, but he grew up in Eden Prairie. The year before, the Twins chose Gopher catcher Kyle Knudson in the ninth round, and in 2009 they picked U of M 2B Derek McCallum in round four. In previous years, Minnesotans Glen Perkins and, of course, Joe Mauer became first round picks for the Twins.

There are some advantages to drafting local players. First, a local guy has a good chance to become a fan favorite, since fans can identify with his roots, and many may have watched him play before he joined the Twins. Second, the Twins’ scouts may have a slight advantage with Minnesota players. Every baseball team has an extensive scouting operation, but it’s difficult to watch every player in the United States (or increasingly, the world). By virtue of being located in this state, the Twins have more personnel here than any other team, so they may notice things about the local players that nobody else does.

With Minnesota native pitcher Cole DeVries set to make his first MLB start tomorrow, it might be a good time to discuss some a couple native sons who could join the Twins organization very soon.

Mitch Brown, RHP, Rochester Century High School

Brown is just emerging on the national draft radar, and there’s a chance he could end up with the Twins in the Supplemental round of the draft. The high school senior from Rochester went 7-1 this year with a 0.56 ERA and 103 Ks. According to ESPN’s high school website, Brown can throw his fastball up to 95 miles per hour, and he supplements it with a good curveball and promising cutter. Since he’s a high school player who will likely grow a little bit, Brown could conceivably add even more velocity to his fastball in the minors.

T.J. Oakes, RHP, University of Minnesota

Oakes is a few years older than Brown, and he is not nearly as promising a prospect. But we know the Twins like him, because they drafted him last year in the 41st round last year. Oakes chose instead to play his senior year with the Gophers, and it was probably a good decision for him. He was named as a first team All-Big 10 selection. He earned that recognition by going 7-3 with a 2.31 ERA for the U of M. He also led the team with 78 strikeouts in 97.1 innings. Unlike Brown, Oakes will never be able to blow a fastball by a MLB hitter, but according to one site he was hitting 94 on the radar gun last year. Oakes appears to be a control-oriented groundball pitcher of the type the Twins always fall in love with.

Both of these pitchers would be interesting additions to the Twins, though they come into the draft with vastly different expectations. ESPN’s Keith Law has Brown ranked as the 45th best prospect in the country, so he would not be much of a reach with the Twins’ 32nd or 42nd overall picks in the supplemental round. If he were still available when the Twins draft again at number 62 overall, he might be a bona fide steal. On the other hand, Oakes should be a late round pick again, but he should be worth a selection somewhere between the 20th and 40th rounds. It would be silly to draft him much higher, but it would almost be silly to not try to draft him again.

The Twins desperately need to restock their farm system with some starting arms, so they might as well put a couple local guys in the mix.

The draft is guaranteed to be one of the highlights of the season for the Twins. The team holds the second overall pick and numerous other high selections that can provide some excitement in the midst of an otherwise dreary season. Puckett’s Pond will be bringing plenty of draft-related coverage over the next few weeks to get you in the right frame of mind to cheer or boo the Twins’ choices (the party started earlier this week, when we wrote about the differences between high school and college draftees).

Last year, the Twins drafted a plethora of middle infielders, since that was a big position of need. Shortstops Levi Michael, Tyler Grimes, and Adam Bryant all joined this organization in the first 10 rounds. On the other hand, the Twins only selected one outfielder in the top 10 (Derek Rodriguez) because the system is stocked with toolsy outfielders. This year there are some other glaring positions of need that the team must concentrate on improving.

Please draft pitchers, Twins. Good pitchers. Photo by Andrew Weber-US PRESSWIRE

Starting Pitching

From the Major Leagues all the way down, the state of pitching in the Twins’ organization is an absolute travesty. Unless and until they make some significant changes to their pitching strategy, the Twins will continue to accumulate Top 5 draft picks year after year. The highest levels of the farm system are stocked with aging journeymen who will never become productive MLB starters. The lower levels’ rotations are full of “pitch to contact” types who can put up impressive numbers at A ball, but inevitably stall when they climb the minor league ladder. Aside from the recently demoted Liam Hendriks, not one single starting pitcher on any of the Twins’ farm teams has struck out more than a batter per inning. Minor leaguers have no trouble making contact against the Twins’ pitchers; Major Leaguers will punish them.

Catcher

This organization suffers from a severe shortage of catchers who can hit. Chris Herrmann is probably the brightest catching prospect in the system, and he upped his stock with a strong performance in Arizona last fall. But this year he is hitting just .237/.282/.403 at AA New Britain. The only catchers at Rochester are J.R. Towles and Rene Rivera, both non-roster invitees to Spring Training who have had spotty records in MLB. Fort Myers’ two catchers, Josmil Pinto and Dan Rohlfing, are both stuck under .300 OBP. Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit form a solid catching duo this year, but Mauer will certainly spend less time behind the plate each passing year. It would be nice if the Twins had a young star to groom as his successor.

Third Base

At first glance, this is absolutely not an area of need. Miguel Sano is not only the Twins’ top prospect, he’s rapidly becoming one of the best prospects in all of baseball. And 2011 draftee Travis Harrison might be every bit as elite a power hitter as Sano. The problem is, both players seem destined to move to other positions. Sano has already committed 11 errors this season. Taking time to improve his defense could severely delay his arrival in the Majors. It would make more sense to move him to the outfield or first base. Harrison has not played in official games yet this year, but the speculation about him is that he is also ripe for a position switch. That would leave the Twins without a third baseman of the future.

Starting pitching is by far the greatest need for this organization. It might be an intelligent move to spend all of the first and supplemental round picks on pitchers who can miss bats. Catcher and third base can be addressed in rounds two through 10, with plenty of other pitchers taken in between.