April 08, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer (7) looks down field against the Kansas City Royals during the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

I thought about writing a poem about Joe Mauer, but ultimately decided that his game is poetic enough for me.  Joe Mauer is in the middle of a Hall of Fame career.  I have no doubt that if Mauer plays as he has for another five or so seasons, this will not even be a debate.  How good is Joe Mauer?  How much reverence should we give to him?  Just how historical is Mauer’s career, up to this point?

Normally, I use Baseball Reference’s play index to do silly things like find random Twins records, look for Three True Outcomes games and just screw around aimlessly.  However, I thought it might be useful to use the play index to help put Mauer’s career into historical perspective.

Warning:  Stats ahead!  Buckle up and settle in.

Here are some Joe Mauer facts:

• Mauer is a catcher
• Mauer debuted in 2004 at the age of 20
• Mauer is 30 and in his tenth season
• Mauer doesn’t seem to be slowing down as a hitter
• Mauer is not a home run hitter
• Mauer doesn’t catch as much as he used to, but is still catching more than half-time
• Mauer has played 857 games at catcher in his career

How does Mauer compare to his contemporaries at catcher?  There are 47 catchers who have caught at least 400 games since 2004.   Mauer ranks first in hits, walks, runs scored, OBP, OPS and batting average.  He ranks second in doubles, third in RBI, fifth in slugging percentage and twelfth in home runs.  So, yeah, he’s an amazing offensive catcher and probably the best from the past ten years.

But Joe Mauer doesn’t play enough games at catcher!  His widdle wegs are too sore and he needs a day off and his blankie.

Wrong!  Only nine other catchers have caught as many or more games than Mauer since 2004.  Since 1961, only 55 total catchers have caught 850 or more games in their first 10 seasons.  Joe Mauer has the second highest OPS+ and batting average in that group (only Mike Piazza‘s are higher) and has the highest OBP of them all.  Other catchers may catch more in given seasons, but Mauer’s longevity is pretty rare.  When that longevity is combined with his offensive production, he is nearly unmatched.

How does Mauer compare to Hall of Fame catchers?  His career is still in progress, so the best way to compare is using their first ten seasons.  Twelve catchers played their whole career between 1901 and today and then entered the Hall of Fame.   Mauer would have the highest batting average and OPS+ of them all.  He would be second in OBP, third in doubles, and fourth in hits, walks and runs.  He fares worse in the power categories, but isn’t last in any, and we’re talking about Hall of Fame players here.  Many of these players were good long past their first ten seasons, so Mauer still needs to keep hitting.  Of course, there is no sign that states that he won’t, at least not for a long while.

So what?  He’s a catcher, good for him.  There are other positions and he wouldn’t be impressive at another position.  

Beautiful swing. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

I disagree.  Mauer is a great hitter, no matter where he plays.  How does Mauer compare with players at all positions?  Here is a sample of players I generated:  From 1961 to 2013, From 1st season to 10th season, (requiring At least 1000 games), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+.  This sample resulted in a list of 643 players.  Here is a nice bullet list with Mauer’s ranks:

• Batting Average – 8th
• OBP – 12th
• OPS+ – tied for 51st
• OPS – 62nd
• Fewest Strikeouts – 22nd
• Walks – 82nd
• Hits – 81st
• Doubles – 75th
• Runs – 128th
• RBI – 151st
• Home Runs – 186th
• Games played – 161st
• WAR – 67th

What does this mean?  Mauer holds his own with all players from the past 50 years, and he is quite a bit younger than many of these players were after ten seasons.  He has also played far fewer games than many of these players.  He’s tall.

He was tied with David DeJesus in runs.  These are just “any men” and not the true elites.  

Here comes the thunder.  To see if Mauer is truly elite, we have to compare him to the cream of the crop.  How does Mauer compare to Hall of Fame players, after their first ten seasons.  I used the same criteria, but filtered so only Hall of Fame players were included.  There are only 29 players and here is another bullet list, with where Mauer would rank:

• Batting Average – 4th (behind only Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew)
• OBP – 2nd (behind Boggs)
• OPS+ – tied for 10th (with Dave Winfield)
• OPS – 7th (ahead of Willie Stargell, George Brett and Reggie Jackson, to name a few)
• Fewest Strikeouts – 7th
• Walks – 13th (right behind Johnny Bench)
• Hits – 24th (just ahead of Mr. October)
• Doubles – 13th (right behind Ryne Sandberg)
• Runs – 27th
• RBI – 22nd (just below Robin Yount)
• Home Runs – 24th
• Games played – 27th (only Willie McCovey and Joe Morgan played fewer)
• WAR – 21st

Hall of Fame smile too. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Tremendous.  Look at those names, and look at how Mauer compares.  Tremendous.

Mauer is unlikely to hit any major milestones and he isn’t going to rack up huge counting stats.  He’ll likely pass 2000 hits, 1000 runs and 1000 RBI.  He’ll flirt with 200 home runs, 1000 walks and 500 doubles, but will might fall short of each of those numbers.  He probably won’t be even a half-time catcher for much longer, possibly just for 2-3 more seasons.  In addition, he is very unlikely to ever put up huge power numbers again.

Where Mauer will always rank highly is in rate stats like batting average, OBP and OPS+. Advanced stats will be his friend as well.  His career WAR is approaching the level of some Hall of Fame catchers.  His wOBA and wRC+ should continue to be in the top ten for all-time catchers.  Plus, he will likely have the distinction as one of the best catchers of his era.  All this adds up to a Hall of Fame career, so long as his career progresses as we all expect it will.

I have enjoyed watching Joe Mauer play baseball.  If he isn’t elected into the Hall of Fame, that enjoyment won’t retroactively fade away.  However, I certainly feel that I have been watching one of the best players of my lifetime and that type of player deserves to be discussed and deserves to be immortalized.  The fact that we get to watch him play for many years to come only makes it sweeter.  We’re watching a Hall of Fame player every day, and that isn’t something that every fan base gets to enjoy.

Apr 5, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Aaron Hicks (32) lays on the ground after fouling a ball off his leg in the sixth inning against the Baltimore Orioles on Opening Day at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles defeated the Twins 9 – 5. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

I learned a valuable lesson yesterday.  I’ve been toying with this idea for a week or so and started outlining this post on Tuesday.   Then, Cee Angi of SBNation posts this excellent article yesterday and I realize that my article is going to look like either a copy or some sort of veiled rebuttal or it will be completely ignored.  However, I still like the concept so I’ll give my thoughts.  So, if nothing else, I hope to have taught everyone a valuable lesson:  don’t wait because if you do, Cee Angi will beat you (metaphorically, but possibly physically, but probably not, but who knows).

For fans of downtrodden teams, the early part of the season is often the most enjoyable part of the season.  We haven’t had real baseball in our lives for months, so we thrive from gaining the opportunity to watch meaningful games.  However, these meaningful games can produce a lot of meaningless noise.  Much of this noise comes in the form of early season statistics, formed into dreaded small samples.  Small samples are the scourge of the modern baseball society, and it is not hard to figure out why.

Aaron Hicks has been disaster so far, so send him back to AAA, or maybe just cut him altogether!  Kevin Correia has been a revelation, so extend his contract indefinitely and while we’re at it, trade away the pitching prospects for championship champagne coupons!  Ryan Doumit‘s beard is freaking thick, so I will project that he will have a face filled with hair by seasons’ end!  Just hair, no face.

The point of using statistics is to try learn what significance the numbers present to us.  By rule, small samples are not statistically significant.  Without a good sample, any conclusions drawn aren’t particularly useful when trying to determine why something happened or what could happen next.  What we are left with is simple descriptive information.  We can basically state what happened, but deeper meaning cannot actually be attached.

Small samples have basically no predictive value.  It would be crazy to assume that Aaron Hicks is going to be a bust because his first taste of MLB pitching has lead to a tidal wave of flailed swings.  If the Twins sent him to AAA or if fans gave up on his promise, both groups would likely regret the decision.  However, it isn’t crazy to suggest that Hicks take a day off here and there, or possibly move down in the batting order.  Hicks is struggling, and that is apparent, but that doesn’t mean he has some deficiency that will prevent him from having a good career.

April 08, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Minnesota Twins pitcher Kevin Correia (30) delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Small samples aren’t all that evaluative either.  Kevin Correia has had good success in his first two starts.  Looking just at the facts, he has gotten a lot of ground balls and double plays.  It would be incorrect to come to a conclusion that Correia has somehow changed the way he pitches or has improved his ability to get key ground balls, at least at this point.  Evaluating Correia on the small sample would basically ignore his entire track record as a pitcher.  Ignoring a better sample is a major no-no.  Basically, Correia has had a couple good games, nothing more and nothing less.

However, I don’t believe that small samples are completely useless.  While I believe that small samples aren’t particularly useful in finding meaning, it doesn’t mean they aren’t fun to look at or even worth monitoring.  Eventually, small samples can become large samples.  If we pay attention to the sample as it grows and changes, we might actually be able to find more meaning than we would have if just looking at the sample as a whole, in hindsight.

In addition, even the smallest of samples tells us what actually happened.  If a player is 4-4 with 4 home runs, we can safely say that the player had an excellent night at the plate.  Whether that game will ever be replicated, we cannot say.  What caused that power explosion?  We’re not qualified to answer that question.  Did the player have a ridiculously special game?  Uh, yup.

If that same player posts a .450/.550/.800 slash line with six home runs over the first two weeks of the season, it would be faulty logic to assume that this player is on any sort of record setting pace.  It would be unfair to change your expectations for that player, based on that sample.  Extrapolating numbers to figure out season totals would be a complete waste of a calculator or abacus.  However, it would be absolutely reasonable to marvel at this incredible stretch of baseball.

The majority of the issues with small samples come from the real scientific and real statistical community.  Baseball is a game; it’s not a science.  We can enjoy small samples in baseball because the greater meaning isn’t really all that important in the first place.  If we’re wrong in projecting a record-breaking season, then I guess we’re wrong.  Who really cares?  If we write off a slow-starting prospect and then he starts to hit, I’m pretty sure we’ll still be allowed on the bandwagon when he turns it around.

Relying on small samples to make declarations is a losing game.  That doesn’t mean it isn’t a fun game.  While it is always fun to be right about something, sometimes it can be equally fun to live in the world of small samples, gleefully watching as every record is on pace to be broken.  In that world, a player will actually hit 324 home runs one day.  While it may not be the real world, it’s a fun place to visit from time to time.

Speaking of stats, I debuted as a cartoonist this weekend.  If you are interested, you can find it here.  I also wrote about Three True Outcomes Games awhile back.  I’m not sure there is a smaller sample than one game.  You can read about that one here.  How do you feel about small samples?  Please share your thoughts in the comments below.

Crushing Per Usual

Bryce Harper (2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI), Nationals

Apr 1, 2013; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals left fielder Bryce Harper (34) acknowledges the crowd after hitting a solo home run during the fourth inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Troy Tulowitzki (2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI) and Carlos Gonzalez (2-5, 1 HR, 2 R), Rockies

With Harper hot on his coattails in the MLB outfield rankings, CarGo didn’t disappoint with a performance reminiscent of those that made him a top three overall pick in 2011. Tulowitzki showed no ill effects from the groin injury that marred his 2012 campaign, as he and his cohort provided all the offense for the Rockies in Milwaukee. Tulo is the premier shortstop in fantasy baseball when he’s on the field, and after playing in only 47 games last year, on the field is where he’s determined to stay. CarGo has the skill-set to rank at the top of his position as well, and that’s why this one-two punch in the Rockies’ three and four spots can be the most proficient in baseball when healthy. So for the time being, keep a positive attitude and enjoy the production.

Aces Hold Up

Clayton Kershaw (W, 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 7 K), Dodgers

April 1, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) heads to the dugout after a solo home run in the eighth inning of the game against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium. Dodgers won 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Sale (W, 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K), White Sox

A young Kansas City lineup in chilly conditions were no match against Sale on Monday. He stifled the Royals and silenced the whispers of elbow trouble in his throwing arm. Just a couple days removed from his 24th birthday, he is poised to push Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander for the starting pitcher throne in the American League. In his second full season as a starter, he has top-10 potential written all over him.

Felix Hernandez (W, 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 8 K), Mariners

King Felix took the mound in enemy territory and blanked an A’s team that boasts one of the game’s most exciting players in Yoenis Cespedes (0-4). Felix looked to be worth every penny of the $175M contract he signed in the off-season, and he too seems to have put rumblings of elbow concerns to rest.

Meet Me at the Warp Zone

Jeff Samardzija (W, 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 9 K), Cubs

April 1, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija (29) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at PNC Park. The Chicago Cubs won 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Freddie Freeman (3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI), Braves

I’ve seen some people pick Freeman as their dark-horse candidate to win the home run title and after watching him at the plate tonight, it’s hard to argue against them. Freeman carried the Braves to a win over Cole Hamels and the Phillies by driving-in clutch in separate scenarios with two outs. Hitting in the heart of that lineup will offer plenty of chances for Freeman to go yard, and I’m gonna bank he does that at least 30 times this year. He will be undervalued in mixed leagues and late drafts. but it won’t last for very long. Act accordingly and make some offers.

Dip in the Clunk Tank

Ike Davis (0-5, 4 K, 4 LOB), Mets

Not a great start to a breakout season. After hitting the fourth-most home runs in baseball after the All-Star Break (20), Ike is looking to carry that momentum into 2013, but he ran into a speed bump on opening day. I’m still a believer in the break-through and he should drastically improve on his .227 AVG from a year ago, but when your team scores 11 runs and you go hitless with four whiffs? You put that break-through on brief hold and take a dip in the clunk tank. Make it up to us next game, Ike.

Jay Bruce (0-4, 3 K, 6 LOB), Reds
He will make up for it some day soon, but wow, Bruce could have really stuffed the stat sheet against the Angels in baseball’s lone interleague opener. With the game tied 1-1 in the eighth, Bruce struck out with bases loaded to end the inning, and later in the 13th, he struck out to end the game in extras. Not the start we were looking for from someone who usually rakes in April. Tomorrow is another day. Oh Crap, the Reds have it off.

Yeah You Better Be Scared

Edinson Volquez (L, 3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K), Padres

You can’t trust Volquez on the road anymore and that’s the bottom line. After posting dismal numbers on the road last year (5.60 ERA and 1.65 WHIP), the perpetually regressing Volquez was chased in Citi Field in an ugly 11-2 loss to the Mets. He hasn’t been on my draft list for years, but if you are an Edinson owner, only start him at Petco Park in favorable match-ups. His ship has sailed. Trade him if you can find a taker sucker.