March 7, 2013; Clearwater, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Kyle Gibson (32) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Bright House Networks Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Taylor the Prospect Octopus would like me to embed more tweets into these posts.  Not only does a tweet convey great information from an expert, Taylor feels that an embedded tweet is a tacit endorsement of the original Tweeter and that you should follow said Tweeter if we include them in the post.  I agree.  I also applaud Taylor’s use of the word “tacitly,” even if it was used in a run-on sentence.  So, we’re going to add more tweets and you should add these Tweeters to your feeds.  They all supply great prospect information.  On to the players!

Rochester Red Wings

Kyle Gibson was magnificent on Sunday, pitching a complete game shutout and taking a no hitter into the 8th inning.  Gibson gave up only three hits and two walks, while recording eight strikeouts.  Gibson has now thrown 52.2 innings this season, striking out 46 while walking only 14.  The Twins want Gibson to be more consistent, but I’m not sure what he has left to prove at AAA.  If the Twins have Gibson on a 130 inning limit, he may only have 12-15 starts left in his arm this season.  If that is the case, the Twins are running out of time to see what he can do against MLB hitting.  When you add the ineffectiveness of Pedro Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey, there is no reason to keep Gibson in Rochester much longer.

Another player trying to force his way to Minnesota is Chris Colabello.  Colabello went 4-5 on Sunday, with his 16th and 17th double.  More interesting is this fact:

Twins had Chris Colabello play RF for the second time today in Triple-A. Four more hits and he’s now second in the IL in OPS.

— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) May 19, 2013

Colabello getting reps in right is significant.  Not only is Aaron Hicks still not performing, but Chris Parmelee and Oswaldo Arcia are slumping as well.  If the Twins need an outfielder, Colabello might get the call.  The 29-year-old independent ball veteran certainly seems to be earning it.

New Britain Rock Cats

Daniel Ortiz went 2-4 on Sunday, raising his average to .299.  Ortiz has hit well in the past, approaching .300 in a couple different Minor League seasons.  The significant advancement thus far has been development of some power.  Ortiz currently has a slugging percentage just shy of .500, which is certainly his best showing in full-season ball.  Antoan Richardson was recently called up to Rochester.  If they end up needing another OF, Ortiz might get the next call.

Michael Tonkin has had an interesting season so far.  In 18.2 innings, he hasn’t given up a home run, but his walk rate is up from last season and the strikeouts he added in 2012 have dipped as well.  However, Tonkin still has only pitched about 50 innings above Low-A.  His results have been pretty good, as his ERA sits just below three.  If he keeps working on his command, he could see his walks decrease which would make his strikeout rate dip a little less significant.

Fort Myers Miracle

Just to remind everyone, Miguel Sano is really good:

I think he’s ready for the Double-A challenge. RT @mrnypenn @professorparks When should he be considered ready for AA? (Sano)

— Jason Parks (@ProfessorParks) May 18, 2013

 Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus is not a guy who calls for promotions prematurely.  Often when fans ask about their favorite prospect moving up a level, he’ll respond with something along the lines of “what’s the rush?”  However, Parks, much like many Twins fans, recognizes that Sano is special.  He’s going to get to Minnesota at a very young age.  The jump to AA is a big one, but Sano has little left to prove in A ball, and might reach AA before the draft in early June.

AFL hero Nate Roberts returned this week, playing his first game of the 2013 season.  Unfortunately:

According to @zimmiracle (Via @jeremynygaard), Nate Roberts is back on the DL due to inflammation in his knee.

— Seth Stohs (@SethTweets) May 16, 2013

Roberts is 24, has now played just one game above low A and seems to be a little bit injury prone.  He hasn’t played more than 76 games in a season.  However, he is an extremely intriguing player, as he has a career .438 OBP in 180 games.  The man can take a walk.  That kind of plate discipline makes you wish that he could stay healthy and move up the ladder at a reasonable rate.  Hopefully, he comes back from this injury, has a huge month in Fort Myers, and heads to New Britain.  Otherwise, he’s a 25-year-old with no AA experience going into 2014.

Cedar Rapids Kernels

John Sickels of SB Nation profiled some Twins prospects this week.  Here is a tweet with a link to a couple:

Prospect Notes: Niko Goodrum, Jorge Polanco, two more from loaded Cedar Rapids Kernels roster minorleagueball.com/2013/5/15/4334…

— johnsickels (@MinorLeagueBall) May 15, 2013

Niko Goodrum is a pet prospect of mine.  Everything I read about him and every video clip I watch makes me like him more and more.  Goodrum is a great example of not scouting box scores.  He hasn’t really performed all that well, but when you read about his projected power and his crazy strong arm, you can’t help but think of what he can become.  It will be very exciting to watch as he develops as a player and as a man.  One development that I have noticed from box scores this season is what seems to be continued improvement in his plate discipline.  He has a .390 OBP and has taken 25 walks in 38 games.  Not bad for his first season in A ball.

Tyler Duffey doesn’t walk anyone.  He’s only surrendered four free passes in 49.1 innings this season.  Limiting baserunners via walk is going to help any pitcher.  Whether or not he can maintain an elite walk rate throughout his development will certainly tell the story of his success.  Duffey clearly can handle low A hitters, but more advanced hitters will be more patient and exploit mistakes.  It’s exciting to see Duffey have such success, but he has a long way to go.

Yet to Debut

As if the Twins prospect cup weren’t overflowing enough, Luke Bard, Max Kepler and J.T. Chargois, all top 20 prospects, have not made their debut this season.  I’m most excited for Kepler, as he had a breakout last season and is a physical kid with big tools.  Each of these players are worth remembering, and Taylor and I will make sure you are aware when they finally debut.

That’s all we have this week.  If you have a Twins prospect who you would like profiled in the future, send a tweet to @bridman77 with the #prospectoctopus.  We’ll make sure that you get a good profile.

May 9, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Minnesota Twins right fielder Oswaldo Arcia (31) reacts after his two run homer against the Boston Red Sox during the sixth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins have a relative lineage of Rookie of the Year award winners.  Tony Oliva was the first Twins rookie of the year back in 1964.  Rod Carew won it a few years later in 1967.  John Castino shared the award with Alfredo Griffin in 1979.  A couple of 1989 Twins draft picks would win the award, when Chuck Knoblauch won in 1991 and Marty Cordova won in 1995.  Are we watching another Rookie of the Year award winner in the 2013 season?

Oswaldo Arcia was called-up for a one day cameo on April 15.  When bad weather and a speedy paternity leave from Wilkin Ramirez conspired, Arcia was sent down.  However, a Darin Mastroianni injury just a few days later led to a quick recall and Arica has basically been in the lineup ever since.  He got off to a slow start, but strung together a 15 game stretch where he doubled just about every stat and he is currently sitting at a .300/.340/.500 triple slash.  As a result, he has vaulted himself near the front of the very early Rookie of the Year leaderboard.

Initially, I would have guessed that Arica would return to Rochester with a healthy Mastroianni.  Now, the only reason I think that would happen is if the Twins want to play the service time game and consequently annoy many fans.  Arcia has shown that he is a hitter and he has some power in his bat to boot.  His defense is behind his offense, but he isn’t a statue and his arm is strong.  Besides, Rookie of the Year awards are largely won based on fat offensive stats.

Arcia isn’t the only candidate.  Right now, the leaderboard is dusty, with very few impressive rookie campaigns.  There aren’t any rookie closers, an archetype that can ride large save totals all the way to the ROY bank.  That leaves position players and starting pitchers.  A few of the more notable names, like Brandon Maurer, Brad Peacock, Dan Straily and Arcia’s teammate Aaron Hicks, have struggled mightily.  Trevor Bauer and Allen Webster are big-name prospects, but have not thrown many MLB innings.  Jackie Bradley Jr. was an early favorite, but was sent back to the Minors.  MLB-ready elite prospects like Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar, Dylan Bundy and Mike Olt haven’t seen a single MLB game.

Who are the leaders right now?  I see a fairly clear top 5, presented in no particular order:

Brandon Barnes leads all rookies in fWAR.  He is an Astro, so he is basically not on any radar.  He is a 27-year-old rookie (Happy Birthday, Mr. Barnes) who spent seven seasons in Houston’s system.  He strikes out a lot, but adds a decent amount of power.  He can play center, but seems to be spending most of his nights in right.  He’s hot right now, but his .459 BABIP points toward some regression and perhaps some major regression.

Justin Grimm is a legit prospect and one of two Texas Rangers on this list.  Through five starts, Grimm has posted over a strikeout per inning and limited walks enough to be effective.  He is 2 and 2 but could win some serious games with the combination of his talent and this Rangers’ team.  His strand rate is very high, so he might be a regression candidate as well.

Conor Gillaspie has been steady as the White Sox’s primary third baseman.  He has an  OPS+ of 105 and positive defensive value according to both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.  His .275/.337/.440 triple slash isn’t all that impressive, but as the rookie with the most playing time under his belt, it might be enough to seize the lead after these first six weeks.

Nick Tepesch has been slightly above average in seven starts with Texas, posting an ERA+ of 112.  Tepesch has posted solid strikeout numbers and a good walk rate.  He has won three games for the Rangers, while posting an ERA just over four.  He and Grimm have rotation spots for now, but that could change as the Rangers get healthy.

Arcia is easily the best prospect of this bunch and also the youngest player (he is actually the second youngest player in all of the American League, only Manny Machado is younger).  You all know what Arcia brings to the team.  He has the bat to put up impressive stats.  Impressive stats can win awards.  This is a fact that no one can argue with.

If I had to choose one of these players right now because MLB decided to give the award five months early and decided to let one unknown blogger make the selection, I’d go with Gillaspie, because he’s basically been the White Sox’s third baseman all season and his numbers are pretty good.  That being said, Barnes, Grimm and Arcia have been more impressive, but with fewer games under their collective belt.

Who will win?

I would argue that only Arcia and Grimm will be in the discussion by the end of the season.  Both were top 10 prospects in their system.  The other three could stay hot for a full season, but I’ll play the odds and say they won’t.

It’s important to remember who could still be lurking.  Trevor Bauer could eventually stick in the Bigs and has the talent to put up impressive strikeout totals.  You could substitute Allen Webster’s name into that sentence as well.  Wil Myers will be joining Tampa Bay any day now, and should hit and hit for power.  A lot.  Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt are going to be exciting rookies, as soon as Texas opens positions for them.  But will Texas open positions for them in time for each player to accumulate stats?  Based on these factors, I feel there are three long-term candidates.

• Arcia – Already playing and looking like he belongs.
• Myers – Not dominating AAA, but likely bored and needing a call-up for a spark (editorial).
• Bauer – Awesome repertoire, but can be harness it?  If he does, he could be special, and fast.

Of course, as I started writing this, Aaron Hicks decided to hit two home runs, rob one from Adam Dunn and become everyone’s favorite player.  Perhaps Hicks will thrust himself into the race.  I would love nothing more than to have to choose between two Twins at the end of the season in my meaningless awards article.

On to the accountability portion of the post:

Pre-season prediction (found here):  Myers

Updated prediction:  Arcia

It’s more fun to be a homer.

I’ve been going through the last 25 Twins drafts over the last week or so.  Here is a link to 1989, which I posted on Monday.  It was a fun draft, with lots of impact players added to the Twins’ system.  If you enjoy it, keep an eye out for each year from 1988-2012 at Kevin Slowey was Framed! with a new year posted daily. 

Feb 19, 2013; Fort Myers, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins relief pitcher Caleb Thielbar (71) poses for a portrait during photo day at Hammond Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

It dawned on me the other day that I never properly introduced everyone to the Prospect Octopus.  I just went on and on about his prospect eye and didn’t once think to share the most important of details.  Taylor.  His name is Taylor.  Taylor the Prospect Octopus.  Taylor has some prospect reports for you, so let’s waste no more time.

Rochester Red Wings

We have a couple of Minnesota players to discuss today.  Caleb Thielbar was an 18th-round selection out of South Dakota State back in 2009.  He is currently in his second season at Rochester, and repeating the level seems to be suiting him well.  His walks are down and his strikeouts are up.  In fact, his K:BB ratio is better than five right now.  That level of command is impressive, even at his age (26).  Thielbar is looking more and more like a future Twin and has almost certainly passed Tyler Robertson at this point.

Nathan Hanson, a 28th-round pick out of the University of Minnesota in 2008 was recently called up to AAA after spending over 170 games in New Britain.  I’m not sure what to call Hanson, as he plays a lot of positions.  He’s a corner infielder, but played over 40 games at second last season.  He’s been playing some outfield in Rochester as well.  Perhaps he is being groomed for some sort of super utility role.  Someone who can play nearly every position can be quite valuable.  He’s worth keeping an eye on.

New Britain Rock Cats

Here’s a tweet from Baseball Prospectus’ Chris Mellen:

#Twins C Josmil Pinto has hit the ball hard each time I have seen him this season. Not the best bat speed, but gets it through the zone.

— Chris Mellen (@ChrisMellen) May 5, 2013

Pinto has been great this season, posting a .333/.410/.558 triple slash.  He is basically splitting his time evenly between catcher and DH.  His offense has been quite good for the past two seasons, but will his defense progress with his bat?  He isn’t a true Ryan Doumit clone, as he doesn’t play the outfield (although Doumit doesn’t really anymore either).  If his bat keeps developing, he may not even need to play another position, as he could simply backup Joe Mauer and serve as DH when Mauer catches.  Who knows, if he really develops, he could slowly shift that ratio in the other direction.

I wrote about Danny Santana a few weeks back and posited that he might be the Twins’ shortstop as early as next season.  Paul Molitor disagrees:

Paul Molitor on @1500espn with Judd & Dubay about Danny Santana, “He’s not close, probably 2-3 years away. He just needs to play.”

— Seth Stohs (@SethTweets) May 2, 2013

Obviously, I was a bit ahead of myself.  It makes sense that Santana was moved to AA, as he does need to play every day and the Twins have younger or less experienced shortstops at lower levels in Niko Goodrum, Jorge Polanco and Levi Michael.  Santana hasn’t set the world on fire, but he’s held his own at AA.  He may be a couple years away, but he’s certainly still a future Twin.

Fort Myers Miracle

Jason Wheeler was the Twins’ 8th-round pick in 2011.  He has made seven starts at Fort Myers this season.  In those 36.2 innings, he has 20 strikeouts and 13 walks.  His ERA is 4.66 and his WHIP is 1.31.  These are all fully mediocre numbers.  Wheeler is 22, stands 6′ 8″ and weighs 255 lb.  As a lefty, he’ll be given a lot of time to develop and improve.  His numbers are mediocre now, but he has projection, due to his size.  If nothing else, he could always move to the bullpen, where the Twins could see if his size better translates to stuff.

Adrian Salcedo still has not walked a batter this season.  He has 21 strikeouts in 17 innings as well.  Salcedo has had a really strange career thus far.  He has moved to the bullpen, and early returns are good.  I wonder if he will ever get another chance to start.  If not, he may develop into a solid middle reliever, albeit one that came through the system in the oddest way possible.

Cedar Rapids Kernels

Hudson Boyd was the Twins’ supplemental first-round pick back in 2011.  Boyd is interesting because he is a rare high school pitcher in the Twins’ system.  As such, he is incredibly young and inexperienced.  His stats aren’t even really worth sharing at this point in his development.  Boyd is a big man.  He has big man stuff and decent command.   His control is developing and his big-man stuff has yet to translate into strikeouts, but he’s young and he’ll have that going for him for a few more years.

Romy Jimenez is a young man too, as he’ll turn 22 on Tuesday.  That may not sound young for Cedar Rapids, but not every low A team is jam packed with awesome prospects.  Jimenez has had a really rough season and has not earned consistent playing time.  However, Byron Buxton and Adam Walker are absolutely destroying low A pitching.  If either player earns a call-up, Jimenez would slot in for full-time duty.  That would be a huge step in his development, but one that oddly depends on other players continuing their development.  As is prospect life.

Parting Thought

Ask and you shall receive.

@bridman77 can you add Caleb Thielbar to your very short list of AAA prospects to discuss next week? #prospectoctopus

— Dean Morkassel (@goulik) May 6, 2013

I think the #prospectoctopus is the greatest thing on the planet, so if you want to see a prospect highlighted in a future post, please tweet either me directly (@bridman77) or Puckett’s Pond (@puckettspond).  The Prospect Octopus is here to serve us all.  Never forget that.  Me, you, Taylor and all of Twins Territory.  Have a nice week, everyone!