Hicks has exceeded expectations on defense at least. (Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

Preseason Player Projections Review - Hitters

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I meant to post this at the midway point of the season but sometimes life happens. Anyways, it’s still a good point to compare how the Twins are performing this year to the projections I had for them to start the year. The top set of statistics is my projections. The bottom set is the Twins’ statistics from the midway point pro-rated for 162 games.

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB TB BA SLG OBP OPS
Aaron Hicks 42 561 102 155 34 7 16 69 20 65 251 0.276 0.447 0.351 0.799
Brian Dozier 134 551 89 154 22 7 10 42 23 47 220 0.279 0.399 0.336 0.735
Joe Mauer 145 545 84 187 34 3 16 91 4 88 275 0.343 0.505 0.434 0.939
Josh Willingham 155 541 81 137 30 1 28 99 3 68 253 0.253 0.468 0.337 0.804
Justin Morneau 136 534 85 165 28 1 32 103 2 61 291 0.309 0.545 0.380 0.925
Trevor Plouffe 132 497 69 133 23 1 25 75 2 42 233 0.268 0.469 0.325 0.793
Joe Benson 121 463 73 119 18 4 14 51 13 48 187 0.257 0.404 0.327 0.731
Chris Parmelee 120 460 57 107 21 2 17 62 2 41 183 0.233 0.398 0.295 0.693
Ryan Doumit 120 430 51 120 25 0 17 70 1 31 196 0.279 0.456 0.328 0.783
Pedro Florimon 111 404 37 96 13 5 5 29 12 31 134 0.238 0.332 0.292 0.624
Darin Mastroianni 100 375 60 100 15 4 7 42 25 36 144 0.267 0.384 0.331 0.715
Jamey Carroll 107 367 51 107 19 1 1 34 9 41 131 0.292 0.357 0.363 0.720
Eduardo Escobar 75 210 15 45 8 2 1 12 9 13 60 0.214 0.286 0.260 0.546
Drew Butera 32 95 6 19 5 0 1 6 0 5 27 0.200 0.284 0.240 0.524
Chris Herrmann 32 95 8 23 7 1 1 9 1 9 35 0.242 0.368 0.308 0.676
6128 868 1667 302 39 191 794 126 626 2620 0.272 0.428 0.340 0.767
NAME GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB TB BA SLG OBP OPS
Joe Mauer 155 622 89 197 49 0 15 58 0 86 289 0.316 0.465 0.397 0.862
Justin Morneau 151 579 67 157 40 0 13 93 0 44 235 0.270 0.406 0.329 0.734
Ryan Doumit 142 513 55 124 31 2 15 69 2 46 202 0.241 0.394 0.301 0.695
Brian Dozier 142 491 67 115 22 4 15 62 15 51 187 0.233 0.381 0.313 0.694
Josh Willingham 127 448 58 100 24 0 18 67 2 71 178 0.224 0.398 0.356 0.754
Chris Parmelee 147 428 35 98 22 0 15 36 2 47 164 0.230 0.383 0.308 0.691
Aaron Hicks 118 411 60 82 18 5 13 38 11 36 149 0.199 0.363 0.266 0.629
Trevor Plouffe 111 410 47 106 20 2 16 60 2 31 178 0.258 0.436 0.320 0.756
Pedro Florimon 135 410 40 93 16 0 7 51 15 33 131 0.227 0.320 0.283 0.603
Oswaldo Arcia 106 368 36 96 20 2 11 46 2 27 153 0.262 0.416 0.323 0.739
Jamey Carroll 80 268 29 58 9 0 0 15 2 20 67 0.218 0.252 0.272 0.524
Eduardo Escobar 100 238 36 51 4 4 5 16 0 18 78 0.214 0.328 0.268 0.596
Clete Thomas 55 186 31 46 7 0 5 15 0 22 69 0.245 0.373 0.325 0.697
Wilkin Ramirez 42 82 5 20 5 0 0 9 0 2 25 0.244 0.311 0.271 0.582
Chris Colabello 13 29 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.250
Chris Herrmann 13 24 5 11 2 0 2 7 0 4 18 0.462 0.769 0.533 1.303
Darin Mastroianni 15 16 2 4 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 0.222 0.222 0.300 0.522
Scott Diamond 29 13 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.286
5535 664 1361 289 18 149 642 53 539 2135 0.246 0.386 0.313 0.699

Overall, so far, I’m doing quite poorly without some second half surges. I expected the Twins to actually be pretty good offensively this year. My biggest miss was on Morneau. I really thought he was finally back and feeling like his old self after the concussions and would bounce back for a big year. That hasn’t happened at all. I also thought Hicks had finally figured things out and would be a top Rookie of the Year contender. I still think his second half stats might approach my full projection rates. Josh Willingham struggled and then got hurt but his rate stats could still end up pretty close to what I had for him. I also thought Joe Benson would grab a spot that instead went to Oswaldo Arcia. The one I did hit out of the park at least so far is Chris Parmelee as his stats and my projections are almost identical. Most guys are performing slightly below what I expected. That combined with nobody performing better than I expected adds up to a very bad hitting team. But there’s still a lot of season for these guys to turn it around and at least post respectable numbers. We’ll take another look in October to see how I really did.

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