Summation of the 2011 AL Central Pond Predictions
By Wally Fish
Between April 1st and April 5th the five* of us on staff here published predictions on how the AL Central will wind up at the end of the regular season. Since Eric and Paul published theirs together, we have four different articles with four different perspectives on the table.
I’ve been meaning to put together this summation for a while now but I’ve been pulled in several other directions over the last two weeks. One of those directions, as it relates to this site, has been getting to know Nate, Adam, Eric and Paul in an effort to build a cohesive team that functions – for the most part – on the same page. I think we’re getting close to having a tight-knit writing force, but as our individual standings suggest, we weren’t far off to begin with. When it comes to picking the division anyway.
So without further delay, here our our 2011 AL Central predictions consolidated and summarized for your reference, consumption and for historical posterity.
For convenience, and to start things off, I have linked to and listed the standings from each of our prediction posts.
Minnesota Twins (95-67)
Detroit Tigers (93-69)
Chicago White Sox (85-77)
Cleveland Indians (70-92)
Kansas City Royals (63-99)
Minnesota Twins (91-71)
Chicago White Sox (87-75)
Detroit Tigers (83-79)
Kansas City Royals (70-92)
Cleveland Indians (65-97)
Minnesota Twins (90-72)
Chicago White Sox (87-75)
Detroit Tigers (86-76)
Cleveland Indians (67-95)
Kansas City Royals (65-97)
Minnesota Twins (92-70)
Chicago White Sox (90-72)
Detroit Tigers (85-77)
Cleveland Indians (74-88)
Kansas City Royals (70-92)
It’s probably doesn’t come as much of a shock that we all agreed on one and one thing only, in our projected standings. That of course would be that the Twins will win the AL Central in 2011. Depending on whose rationale you prefer, the margin ranges between 2 and 4 games. The White Sox were our pick to finish 2nd and the Tigers were our pick to finish 3rd. Nate had the Tigers 2nd and White Sox 3rd, but otherwise we were in agreement there as well.
When it comes to 4th and 5th in the division, I was the only one who placed the Royals ahead of the Indians. Maybe it’s because I live here in Kansas City or maybe it is because I have a more intimate knowledge of the team compared to the “national” perceptions. Either way I’m the odd duck on the pond and it’s not like I picked them to win an outlandish number of games. In fact, Adam also picked the Royals to finish with a record of 70-92. The difference is that he thinks the Indians will win 74 and I think they will win 65.
This is what you come up with if you consolidate all our predictions into one:
- Minnesota Twins (92-70) [High: 95 / Low: 90]
- Chicago White Sox (87-75)* [High: 90 / Low: 85]
- Detroit Tigers (87-75)* [High: 93 / Low: 83]
- Cleveland Indians (69-93) [High: 74 / Low: 65]
- Kansas City Royals (67-95) [High: 70 / Low: 63]
The White Sox and Tigers finish in a tie after rounding the averages to whole numbers, but in reality are separated by 0.5 wins (87.25 to 86.75). This is primarily due to the fact that Nate picked the Tigers to win 93 games and the AL Wild Card. As you can see from the above, the Tigers also have the widest gap between their win totals in our individual standings. Which suggests that they are the most polarizing team in terms of expected finish amongst our staff.
What I find most intriguing about our consolidated standings is that we have the Twins winning the AL Central by about 5 games this season despite the fact that on an individual basis none of us picked them to win it by more than 4 games.
Regardless, with the Twins at 4-7, things aren’t looking so great for our individual or collective selections, but there is a TON of season yet to be played. I’m confident we’re going to be close to spot-on when the book closes on the 2011 regular season.
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*You may have noticed that there are five of us on staff here instead of six. That is because Josh Hill is no longer a member of the Puckett’s Pond team. The specifics of this move will remain private, but for those of you who have been visiting this site just to read his work will have to head over to Pippen Ain’t Easy (FanSided’s Chicago Bulls site) to get your fill of Josh Hill content.