Denard Span Has Been Horribly Unlucky Thus Far

It’s been discussed to death, but ever since his breakout rookie season in 2008, when he batted .294/.387/.432, Denard Span has seemed like a prime candidate for regression. It seems silly now, after he batted .311/.392/.415 last year and helped the Twins capture the division title, but there was good reason to think the outfielder’s production just wasn’t sustainable. Span’s minor-league numbers were never anything spectacular and he certainly didn’t display his famously selective eye at the plate. Obviously, his strong 2009 campaign put most of the regression talk to rest, although a lot of projection systems, including CHONE and ZiPS, still weren’t high on him. The Twins certainly believed enough in his skills as a lead-off hitter to sign Span to a 5-year, $16.5 million contract extension in March. Unfortunately, the 26 year-old is off to a slow start, batting just .156/.333/.188, and hardly looking like one of the premier lead-off hitters in the league. It’s hardly worth losing sleep over a player’s production through the first nine games of the season, but let’s look at the numbers anyway:

The good news is that Span appears to be suffering from a run of bad luck rather than any sort of regression to the mean. His BABIP is an extremely-low .172, which suggests that he’s simply been unlucky with his batted balls ending up a fielder’s glove. He doesn’t seem to have lost his eye at the plate, which is obviously another encouraging sign. Span is drawing a ton of walks, 9 in just 44 plate appearances, while striking out a little less than usual. As long as he keeps it up, his luck will probably turn and he should see more of his batted balls falling in for hits.

Tags: Denard Span, just plain bad luck, leadoff hitters, Minnesota Twins, outfielders, regression